Winter Weather Advisory 1, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

456 
WWUS41 KPHI 112048
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...STARTING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN AND THEN AS THE
ATMOSPHERE COOLS CHANGE TO SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAINLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISE...THE SNOW AND
SLEET WILL CEASE WITH FREEZING RAIN PERSISTING FOR A WHILE LONGER. 
PLAIN RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND LESS THAN AN INCH. AS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN...EXPECT ABOUT ONE-TENTH
OF AN INCH OF ICE. NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-121000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.120112T0100Z-120112T1000Z/
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
348 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX 
  COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET AND ABOUT
  A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. 
 
* TIMING...THE WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED DURING THIS EVENING AND
  LASTING PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PLAIN RAIN IS
  EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING 

* IMPACTS....TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
  SECONDARY ROADS AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND FREEZING. IN
  ADDITION...A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES IN ANY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

644 
WWUS41 KPHI 120222
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MIXED RAIN SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY SLEET AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT WHERE
IT OCCURS...ROADS WILL BE SLIPPERY.

NJZ001-120330-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120112T1000Z/
SUSSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NEWTON
922 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

TEMPERATURES APPEARED TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY FREEZING RAIN
OR MUCH SLEET. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE ANY
SLEET THIS EVENING AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH ONLY
LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

$$

PAZ054-055-121000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120112T1000Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
922 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE SOUTHERN POCONOS OF PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SLEET...AND SOME FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SLEET AND ICE.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH SLEET...OR EVEN CHANGE TO
  SLEET BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AND LAST PAST MIDNIGHT...MAINLY OVER
  THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
  HIGHEST TERRAIN. PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON
  SECONDARY ROADS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS TEMPERATURES DROP
  TO AROUND FREEZING AND A LIGHT COATING OF ICE BECOMES POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES IN SLEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

964 
WWUS41 KPHI 120542
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1242 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

PAZ054-055-120645-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120112T1000Z/
CARBON-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG
1242 AM EST THU JAN 12 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE SLOWLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED.
AS A RESULT, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POCONO REGION.

$$

IOVINO

920 
WWUS41 KPHI 102016
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
316 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-027-PAZ070-071-111015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.120211T0300Z-120211T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
316 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE
  AND SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL
  SNOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL MODERATELY AT
  TIMES SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL COVER UNPAVED AND COLDER SURFACES. IF THE
  SNOWFALL INTENSITY INCREASES ON SATURDAY ROAD AND SIDEWALK
  SURFACES MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

HEAVENER

209 
WWUS41 KPHI 110207
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
907 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-027-PAZ070-071-111000-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.120211T0300Z-120211T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
907 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NORTHERN
  DELAWARE...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO ALL 
  SNOW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE SNOW MAY FALL MODERATELY 
  AT TIMES SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE 
  AFTERNOON. 

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL COVER UNPAVED AND COLDER SURFACES. IF THE 
  SNOWFALL INTENSITY INCREASES ON SATURDAY ROAD AND SIDEWALK 
  SURFACES MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED. 

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

385 
WWUS41 KPHI 110840
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-027-PAZ070-071-111500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120211T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
340 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND... NORTHERN 
  DELAWARE...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEASTERN 
  PENNSYLVANIA. 

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TIMING...A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING
  ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL COVER UNPAVED AND COLDER SURFACES. IF THE
  SNOWFALL INTENSITY INCREASES ROAD AND SIDEWALK SURFACES MAY
  BECOME SNOW COVERED.

* TEMPERATURES...32 TO 36 DEGREES THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

038 
WWUS41 KPHI 111432
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>020-027-PAZ070-071-111545-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-120211T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...PENNSVILLE...
GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
JACKSON...WHARTON STATE FOREST...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
932 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

WHILE LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING...
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
326 AM EST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN
STATES TODAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. A SECONDARY STRONG LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL
DRIVE A POTENT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EASTWARD AND OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND, BEFORE SHIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET COMPARED TO WHAT COMES TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
RIDGING HAS RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES. WHILE ISOLATED FOG PATCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK...THIS WILL NOT BE INCLUDED.

0000 UTC SOUNDINGS SHOWED A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (NOT
SURPRISING WHILE RIDGING IN PLACE. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL COVER THE SKIES THIS MORNING...AS THE MID LEVEL
REMAIN TOO DRY FOR CLOUDS. THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESS...AND THE INITIAL SHOT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
MOISTEN THE COLUMN.

THIS IS MENTIONED BECAUSE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MODELS MAY BE A TAD
FAST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. IT WOULD APPEAR AS
THOUGH MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO INTO MOISTEN THE COLUMN...AND THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN PROBABLY GET TO PHILADELPHIA CLOSE TO 600
PM. NORTH AND EAST OF THERE...THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE DRY
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

AFTER A COLD START IN PLACES (THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS)...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND WITH
MORNING SUN TO JUST UNDER THE MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE DRY COLUMN IN PLACE WILL HAVE SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY. EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW THE COLUMN TO COME INTO
EQUILIBRIUM NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. INITIALLY...THIS WILL ALLOW
SNOWFLAKES TO BE CREATED...AND A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET IS
EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE QPF VALUES...IT
WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT
(GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS)...FOLLOWED BY SOME SLEET.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERWHELMS THE COLUMN...ROBBING IT OF ITS
ABILITY TO MAKE SNOWFLAKES. IN FACT...THE ENTIRE COLUMN RISES ABOVE
FREEZING...EVEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. HOWEVER...VALLEYS IN
THESE LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AFTER THE INITIAL
SHOT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THIS PROBABLY LEADS TO A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN. AT THIS POINT...ICE ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR PROBLEMS.
BASE ON THE ABOVE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.

THE NEST PROBLEM IS RAINFALL. THE SOURCE OF THE AIR WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND WARM FRONT IS THE CENTRAL GULF...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1.20 INCHES (WHICH IS 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR JANUARY). THE MOISTURE RICH AIR RUNNING
UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN HEAVY FOR A TIME DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN IN SMALL STREAM FLOODING...BUT RIGHT
NOW THE PROBLEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR. AS SUCH...A FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS MORNING. MORE ON THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
INCLUDED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

THE NEXT ISSUE IS WINDS. A LOW LEVEL 50 KNOT JET IS EXPECTED TO
RIDES NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE (DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION)
SHOULD HOLD IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 30
MPH.

THE EXCEPTION HERE IS THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST. THE BEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MORE OR LESS
COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
SUPERIMPOSITION OF THE GRADIENT AND JET COULD MEAN GUSTS TO 40
MPH...AND THAT WILL BE THE FORECAST FOR NOW (NEGATING THE NEED FOR A
WIND ADVISORY). HOWEVER...IF 0600 UTC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GREATER
THREAT...A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED BEFORE 700 AM.

FINALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR
LATE TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE...AND WOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM LATE TONIGHT. ANY CONVECTION COULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DECENT
BULK SHEAR AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS LOOKS LIKE
ALONG SHOT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO START OUT POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS A DRY SLOT
FROM AN EARLIER SYSTEM PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
AN EARLIER CLOSED LOW QUICKLY IS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND GENERALLY
ABSORBED INTO A LARGER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER DYNAMIC WITH IT
EVOLVING INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW. THIS DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THIS SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THEN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY
WITH IT POTENTIALLY BECOMING REINFORCED SOME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AS TROUGHING SETTLES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RIDGING SPREADS
EASTWARD AND DISLODGES THE EAST COAST TROUGH. THE PATTERN CONTINUES
TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE IN MAINTAINING A PROLONGED COLD SHOT. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND,
THEN SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES OVER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF OUR AREA
LATE MONDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT THEN APPROACHES ON TUESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A POTENTIALLY DYNAMIC SHORT BURST OF
RAIN TO SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE COURTESY OF RAPIDLY
FALLING HEIGHTS FROM THE WEST AND A RIBBON OF ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AS A CLOSED LOW MOVES IN. THE THERMAL GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OWING TO
ADDITIONAL LOWER LEVEL FORCING. A SHARP COLD FRONT DRIVES EASTWARD
WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINING TO FOCUS A POSSIBLE NARROW AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WHICH MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN
COOLS FROM ABOVE. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME QUICK SQUALLS OF RAIN TO
SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH TIME AS THE COLDER
AIR MOVES OVER THE LINGERING MILDER LOWER LEVELS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
CAA AND DEEPENING MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY RESULT IN A BURST OF WIND
ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR WHERE THE MAXIMUM LIFT OCCURS BECAUSE IF IT
COMBINES WITH THE COOLING COLUMN THERE COULD BE A QUICK RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EVENT WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY, IT LOOKS LIKE DESPITE
PERHAPS SOME CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION /SQUALLS/ IT IS NOT ENOUGH AT
THIS POINT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION TO TAKE PLACE /UNLESS THE STRONGER
FORCING IS ABLE TO DEEPEN THIS INSTABILITY A BIT MORE/. WE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS /LIKELY/ ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TAPERED THEM DOWN WITH A SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT. AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS TO THE EAST, STRONG CAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE WILL LEAD TO GOOD VERTICAL MIXING UP INTO
THE STRONGER WIND FIELD ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WINDY/BLUSTERY DAY WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH /925 MB TO 850 MB
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 40-50 KNOTS/. WE MAY EVEN NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH MIXING BECOMES
REALIZED. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MAY TEND TO HOLD STEADY FOR A TIME
EARLY, THEN FALL DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY DUE TO THE STRONG AND
DEEPENING CAA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, A BIT BLUSTERY TO START SATURDAY HOWEVER
THE WINDS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE POCONOS INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY.
A SHORT WAVE MAINTAINING THE TROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT OTHER THAN PERHAPS A BIT MORE CLOUDS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAA STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL TEND TO LEAD TO THE AIRMASS
MODIFYING, BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME COOLING TAKING PLACE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT,
SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THROUGH 1200 UTC...MAINLY JUST
HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL AFFECT THE AREA. WHILE THE AIR IS FAIRLY DRY...
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT PATCHY FOG COULD FORM...BUT THIS
WOULD LOOK TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. AN MVFR VISIBILITY WAS INCLUDED
FOR KMIV FOR THE 0600 UTC TERMINAL FORECAST...BUT NOWHERE ELSE.

THE BULK OF TODAY WILL BE VFR WITH JUST HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH 2100 UTC.  AFTER 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION...AS AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPS JUST
AHEAD OF IT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OT
NORTH...AFFECTING KILG...KMIV AND KACY BEFORE 0000 UTC WITH MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL SITES WILL
BE AFFECTED AFTER 0000 UTC.

THE PRE WARM FRONT WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KPHL SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. AS A LOW LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...WIND SHEAR
WILL BECOME AN ISSUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AND A WIND SHEAR REMARK
WAS INCLUDED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES.

AS THE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS...IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 0100 UTC TO 0500
UTC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE HEAVIEST OF RAIN WILL FALL BETWEEN 0400
UTC AND 1000 UTC...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION...KACY COULD SEE WINDS GUST TO 350KNOTS FOR A TIME
BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 0900 UTC FROM THE EAST.

AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. RIGHT NOW...IT WOULD
APPEAR AS THOUGH ONLY KMIV AND KACY WOULD BE AFFECT...AND THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE ADDRESSED BY THE 1200 UTC TERMINAL FORECASTS. AS
THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD END BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1200 UTC
THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH.

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING JUST BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FURTHER BEHIND THE FRONT...
DRIER AIR MIXING FROM ABOVE MAY ALLOW CEILINGS TO RISE TO MVFR AFTER
ABOUT 1600 UTC...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW LOOKS TO BE KRDG TO KABE ON NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD NOT LAST
LONG THOUGH BUT MAY RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FOR A TIME. A GUSTY
WESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS. DUE TO THE STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR, SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY BE AROUND.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
SATURDAY SUBSIDING AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. THERE MAY
BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PORTION OF THE GALE WATCH WILL CONVERTED TO A GALE WARNING WITH
THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST.

CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 2 FEET AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE
HIGH GETS OFFSHORE...THE RETURN FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS.

THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...THE
GRADIENT INCREASE...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN TIGHTENING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS AFTER 0300 UTC THURSDAY. THIS IS
IMPORTANT...BECAUSE A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE
SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION REMAINS SQUARELY
IN PLACE (AS IT SHOULD DURING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION)...AND THE
BEST MOMENTUM REMAINS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE WATER FRONT APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
WINDS...BUT NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS.

HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN ENOUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE VERY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SANDY HOOK SHOW A 6 HOUR PERIOD BETWEEN
0400 UTC AND 1000 UTC THURSDAY WHEN 35 KNOT WINDS ARE AVAILABLE NEAR
500 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE THE INVERSION MAY BE THAT LOW...BUT AS THE
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES OVERHEAD...IT APPEAR AS THOUGH THIS
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT.

BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
AT THE TOP OF THE INVERSION. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO SMALL CRAFT WINDS
FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AFTER DAYBREAK. ALL WATERS SHOULD SEE
NEAR SMALL CRAFT WINDS THURSDAY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN PROBABLY JUMP IN THE GRADIENT FLOW TONIGHT...AND WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH 0000 UTC FRIDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. THE CAA REALLY KICKS IN FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL TEND TO STEEPEN THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH TIME AND AIDE IN
BETTER VERTICAL MIXING. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40
KNOTS AND WITH ENOUGH MOMENTUM TRANSFER, LOW END GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS OF NOW, WILL NOT EXTEND
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 00Z FRIDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE WINDS /ALTHOUGH SEAS MAY BE STILL UP NEAR 5 FEET/, THEN GALES
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS THE CAA WEAKENS SOME AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS MORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO QPF
FOR THE UPCOMING EVENT. IT WOULD APPEAR...BASED ON THE HIGHER THETA
E AIR RIDING UP AND OVER THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT THE HIGHEST
RAIN WILL FALL BETWEEN 0400 UTC AND 1000 UTC THURSDAY...FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.20 INCHES WILL FEED INTO
THE FLOW AS WELL...AS THE SOURCE OF THE AIRMASS IS THE CENTRAL GULF.
THE 1.20 INCHES IS MORE OR LESS WHERE THE BULK OF THE QPF FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN CENTERED...AND THIS IS ACCEPTED.

FOR THE MOST PART...QPF VALUES OF THIS AMOUNT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
FLOODING ISSUES WITH THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS. THE RFC FORECASTS
AND THE LATEST MMEFS INFORMATION BACK THIS UP. HOWEVER...THE
HEADWATER GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SOME OF THE FASTER RESPONDING SMALL
STREAMS (SUCH AS THE CHRISTINA RIVER AND POSSIBLY STREAMS IN MORRIS
COUNTY NJ)...MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS.

SINCE THESE PROBLEMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED (AT LEAST THAT IS THE
WAY IT LOOKS THIS MORNING)...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.
IF LATER INFORMATION SUGGESTS THE PROBLEMS COULD BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...A FLOOD WATCH COULD BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE WATER TO BE BANKED UP ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
COASTS. HOWEVER...IT COULD BE THAT WE DODGE FLOODING THE HIGH TIDES
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

THE FIRST TIDE OF CONCERN OCCURS THIS EVENING ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT.
THIS HIGH TIDE IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO TIDES TODAY...AND FOR THE
MOST PART THE OCEAN FRONT WOULD NEED A SURGE OF 2 FEET TO CAUSE
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING. WINDS WILL JUST BE COMING UP DURING THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE...AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH TIDE FOR
PROBLEMS.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDE OF CONCERN IS THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT OCCURS ON
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL SECTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER.
THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE OCCURS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 400 AM THURSDAY. A
TIDE DEPARTURE OF NEARLY 2.5 FEET WOULD BE NEEDED TO REACH THE MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING BENCHMARK. AS WATER IS FED INTO THE DELAWARE ROVER ON
AN INCREASING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT...DEPARTURES OF THIS
MAGNITUDE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE TIDE GUIDANCE EARLY THIS
MORNING DOES NOT SHOW THIS OCCURRING...SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH THE MOST CONCERN FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE GREATEST DEPARTURES
PROBABLY OCCUR NEAR LOW TIDE...AS THIS IS WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. BY THE TIME THE THURSDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OCCURS (ON THE OCEAN FRONT BETWEEN 830 AM AND 1100 AM)...WINDS
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND A WARM FRONT.

THE WIND SHIFT SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE SURGE FROM THE STRONGER
WINDS LATE TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TIME
FOR ALL OF THE WATER TO DRAIN COMPLETELY. MDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
A FEW POINTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DO MUCH ABOUT THIS NOW...AND LATER
FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO FOCUS ON THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...HAYES
SHORT TERM...HAYES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/HAYES
MARINE...GORSE/HAYES
HYDROLOGY...HAYES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-112115-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A PERIOD OF SNOW SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS...
PARTICULARLY IN THE POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY.

THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS END AS SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
POCONOS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE POCONOS ON
GUSTY WEST WINDS NEAR OR JUST BEFORE DAWN FRIDAY...CONTRIBUTING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ008>010-012>019-PAZ067>071-112115-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAIN COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE SMALL STREAM FLOODING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF 1 INCH OF RAIN FALLS
WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ020>027-112115-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-452>455-112115-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450-451-112115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
403 PM EST TUE JAN 10 2012

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WATCH.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.