Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
757 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL IMPULSE WITH ITS ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS
ON THE WRN ZONES ATTM. UPDATED ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS THOSE AND DOWNSTREAM AREAS. SPS STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED
FOR AREAS OF GREATEST INTEREST ON RADAR THIS MORNING.

THE BEST TIMING FOR CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AFTER WE GET SOME SURFACE HEATING. WITH THE CLOUDS
BUILDING UP THROUGH THE DAY, THIS MIGHT LIMIT OUR SURFACE HEATING
WHICH IN TURN WOULD LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL A BIT AND
ESSENTIALLY PUSH BACK THE TIMING ON WHEN THINGS WOULD START TO GET
GOING. SPC STILL CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT OUR REGION IN AN AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER, MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH LCL'S ONLY A COUPLE
OF THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON COULD INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERTURNING OF THE ATMOSPHERE, WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO SOME ROTATION IN STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS BEST
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE REGION
BUT AS MENTIONED BEFORE, CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP US COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE MILD AS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY ARE THE FORECAST
HIGHLIGHTS OF THIS PERIOD.

NEAR/SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A SURFACE WAVE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT...AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHOOTS EAST AHEAD OF THE
LOW WAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCE REGARDING TIMING...THE 0000 UTC NAM SOLUTION
APPEARS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT WITH RESPECT TO HOW THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS EVOLVE. FOR NOW...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING WAS USED
FOR THIS FORECAST.

THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SLOWING FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TOP OUT NEAR 1.75 INCHES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON..WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. THE
POSITION OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND THE
FORECAST WILL REFLECT THIS.

THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
MARGINALLY TO LOCALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE AIRMASS (AS MEASURED
BY MLCAPE) SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN THESE
AREAS...THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ORGANIZATION...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL IN STRONGER
CELLS AS WELL.

THE ABOVE IS PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL WANES DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS THE FRONT
PASSES AND THE LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS NOT AS
PLENTIFUL...SUGGESTING THAT STRONG SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS NOT
AS LIKELY. CLOUDINESS COULD END UP BEING A CONSIDERATION AS WELL...
AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT SUGGEST QUICK CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS MOS NUMBERS LOOK A TAD TOO HIGH FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDINESS.

CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIE OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND DELAWARE...WHERE INSTABILITY COULD
REMAIN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. A FINAL MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD FINALLY GIVE THE COLD FRONT A KICK FURTHER OFFSHORE.

CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. SINCE THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS TRANSITION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE (OR EVEN THURSDAY
MORNING)...LOWS WERE GENERALLY BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS MOS
NUMBERS.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...WITH A QUASI
ZONAL FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THE
COLUMN LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SEA AND BAY BREEZES IN CHECK.
THIS MEANS HIGHS MAY BE MORE UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THAN
MOST DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WERE BASED ON THE MOS BLEND...AS
THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM MOS NUMBERS IN MOST PLACES.

AFTER RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS MOVES OFFSHORE THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW MEANS THAT THE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
START TO RETURN FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF A FAIRLY DEEP 500 MB TROUGH FOR MID AUGUST (HEIGHTS NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS ALMOST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL). THIS
MEANS THAT THE COLUMN WARMS OVERALL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90 IN THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

FRIDAY ALSO LOOKS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD
BE PRESENT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH INCREASING BULK
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE FRONTAL TIMING
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT...SO THE LEE SIDE TROUGH WOULD BE NEEDED
FOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...SURFACE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION SCENARIO.

THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND ARE NOT IN ANY BETTER FOCUS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE POSITION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND THE SHORT WAVES
SHOOTING THROUGH IT...SUGGEST THAT TIMING/POSITION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. BECAUSE OF THIS...NOT MUCH IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST WAS CHANGED AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL START TO
LOWER AS A MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING. SHOWERS
LOOK TO IMPACT KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 11-15Z, KILG KPNE AND KPHL
BETWEEN 12-15Z AND KTTN BETWEEN 14-16Z. CHANCES ARE LESS FOR
STORMS TO IMPACT KMIV AND KACY THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE LEFT IT
OUT OF THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IN
ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH TIMING AN ISSUE, WE HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER THE TIME WE FEEL STORMS
WILL HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT AT THE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE,
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT AROUND
4000-6000FT THROUGH TODAY. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES MAY DROP DOWN
TO MVFR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION, AND THEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO IMPROVE TOWARD WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, PICKING UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EARLY...MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL IN THE MORNING.
MAINLY VFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS EARLY
SOUTHEAST OF KPHL...OTHERWISE VFR.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY. MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY...DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF A FRONT...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
TODAY. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN
THE DELAWARE BAY. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE DAY, THE CHANCE FOR GUSTIER WINDS ON THE DELAWARE BAY
WILL EXIST DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE BAY. WIND GUSTS UP AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES NOT LOOK TO SUPPORT WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS. IN FACT...
THE GRADIENT COULD EVEN BE WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOCAL SEA AND BAY
BREEZES DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE OFFSHORE...THE LOW LEVEL PUSH OF COOLER AIR
MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO GUST TO 20 KNOTS
FOR A TIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 20 KNOTS SHOULD BE THE TOP END OF THE GUSTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT...THE RETURN FLOW
INCREASING...AND WINDS COULD START GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT FLOW AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER WILL CUT OFF
ACCESS TO HIGHER WINDS ABOVE THE INVERSION.

THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY BE IN PLACE LONG
ENOUGH FOR SEAS TO GET CLOSE TO 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW SINCE IT IS
UNCLEAR JUST HOW MUCH MOMENTUM WILL MAKE IT TO THE SEA SURFACE IN
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HAYES
NEAR TERM...O'HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...HAYES
AVIATION...HAYES/MEOLA
MARINE...HAYES/MEOLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071-150745-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012-013-015>023-027-150745-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-150745-
DELAWARE BEACHES-EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

ANZ430-431-450>455-150745-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO SURFACE
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

PAZ054-060-061-141130-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-
602 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...CARBON AND
LEHIGH COUNTIES...

AT 559 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 21 MILES NORTH OF LANCASTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WOMELSDORF
AROUND 645 AM...STRAUSSTOWN AND BERNVILLE AROUND 700 AM.

AS MUCH AS AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN LESS THAN 40 MINUTES WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. THIS MUCH RAIN COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED STREET
FLOODING. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE A WIND GUST
TO 35 MPH.

LAT...LON 4051 7638 4052 7624 4058 7602 4065 7599
      4074 7577 4088 7597 4098 7585 4101 7574
      4105 7577 4114 7567 4099 7554 4094 7557
      4083 7549 4080 7559 4075 7560 4039 7614
      4035 7620 4036 7623 4047 7640 4049 7642

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
725 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

PAZ054-055-060>062-141300-
BERKS PA-CARBON PA-LEHIGH PA-MONROE PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-
725 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
BERKS...CARBON...LEHIGH...MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

AT 722 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BROKEN LINE 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF READING TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WANAMAKERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM WITH A FEW CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

LAT...LON 4088 7521 4024 7605 4049 7643 4050 7643
      4052 7624 4058 7602 4065 7599 4074 7577
      4091 7600 4101 7575 4108 7578 4114 7570
      4113 7564 4122 7555

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
742 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

MDZ012-015-141245-
KENT MD-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-
742 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT KENT AND QUEEN ANNE'S
COUNTIES...

AT 739 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BALTIMORE...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ROCK HALL...OLD TOWN AROUND 800
AM...LANGFORD AROUND 815 AM...NEWTOWN...CHESTERTOWN AROUND 830 AM...
BETTERTON AND KENNEDYVILLE AROUND 845 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3904 7632 3902 7627 3905 7624 3917 7629
      3934 7617 3938 7611 3938 7606 3937 7587
      3897 7613 3898 7619 3901 7619 3900 7622
      3903 7625 3900 7630 3901 7633

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-PAZ060-061-067-068-070-141330-
BERKS PA-CECIL MD-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-KENT MD-LEHIGH PA-
MONTGOMERY PA-NEW CASTLE DE-
806 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BERKS...CECIL...CHESTER...
DELAWARE...KENT...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 802 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
READING TO 13 MILES EAST OF LANCASTER TO 17 MILES WEST OF NEWARK TO
12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEWARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3974 7610 3988 7600 4003 7594 4011 7595
      4014 7589 4026 7605 4064 7556 3998 7543
      3971 7550 3962 7560 3960 7560 3964 7557
      3936 7573 3934 7610 3938 7610 3943 7600
      3952 7599 3956 7610 3973 7614

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NJZ008>010-015-PAZ067>071-141515-
BUCKS PA-CHESTER PA-DELAWARE PA-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MONTGOMERY PA-
MORRIS NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SOMERSET NJ-
944 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...CHESTER...DELAWARE...
HUNTERDON...MERCER...MONTGOMERY...MORRIS...PHILADELPHIA AND SOMERSET
COUNTIES...

AT 941 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTH OF
EASTON TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA TO 10 MILES EAST OF WEST
CHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
FRENCHTOWN...MILFORD AROUND 1000 AM...LEBANON...ANNANDALE AROUND 1015
AM...CALIFON...BENSALEM AROUND 1030 AM...CHESTER...SKILLMAN AROUND
1045 AM AND LAWRENCEVILLE AROUND 1100 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4021 7471 3984 7557 4014 7544 4049 7536
      4085 7461

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1007 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

NJZ016>019-021-PAZ069>071-141530-
BUCKS PA-CAMDEN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-PHILADELPHIA PA-SALEM NJ-
1007 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
CUMBERLAND...DELAWARE...GLOUCESTER...PHILADELPHIA AND SALEM
COUNTIES...

AT 1002 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES WEST OF
GLOUCESTER CITY TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON TO 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BRIDGETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DREXEL HILL...MORRIS PARK AROUND 1015
AM...ROXBOROUGH...SOUTH PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1030 AM...KENSINGTON...
CENTER CITY AROUND 1045 AM...WISSINOMING...TACONY AROUND 1100 AM...
BENSALEM AND ANDALUSIA AROUND 1115 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS WITH CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

LAT...LON 3987 7484 3956 7494 3940 7545 3944 7548
      3958 7541 3979 7542 3979 7541 3994 7543
      3999 7529 3998 7527 4001 7521 4002 7522
      4006 7512 4005 7510 4007 7510 4018 7481

FORECASTER: HEAVENER