Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM TORONTO TO NEAR CLEVELAND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE IN
THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THAT LOW SHOULD MOVE INTO NEW YORK STATE AND THEN QUEBEC NEXT
WEEKEND...PULLING ITS STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT OR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS DROPPED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE, BUT EXPANDED EASTWARD TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF OUR NEW JERSEY ZONES.

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD NEARLY THE ENTIRE LENGTH
OF OUR CWA AS OF 2215Z. THE RADAR DATA HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME MINI
BOWING TYPE FEATURES WITHIN THE LINE WITH ENHANCED WIND. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF SOME WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS LINE. THERE IS
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE LINE THEREFORE IT SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITSELF WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS
WINDS START TO GUST OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CORES.

BASED ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE INSTABILITY AND AN INCREASE IN THE
LOWER LEVEL FLOW, MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS SOME AREAS GIVEN THE
LINEAR STORM MODE, EMBEDDED MINI BOWING FEATURES, ALONG WITH A
RATHER HOT AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER FEEDING INTO IT. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ENHANCED WORDING FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD LOWER AFTER THIS SQUALL LINE
MOVES THROUGH THEREFORE DID NOT CARRY THE MENTION THE ENTIRE
NIGHT. THE POPS DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NIGHT, AND SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED FOLLOWING
WHAT OCCURS AFTER THIS SQUALL LINE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE GENERALLY TOOK AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS WITH SOME TWEAKS THEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NEAR TERM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR MORE OF GENERAL
TROUGH TO EVEN ZONAL FLOW OCCURRING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE LEFT BEHIND
THEREFORE IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL. IT DOES APPEAR THAT IT
EVENTUALLY CLEARS MOST OF OUR AREA, WITH PERHAPS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
HANGING ON TO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS LONGER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SOME CONVECTION HANGING ON FOR A TIME, AND THEREFORE SLIGHT CHC TO
CHC POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR A TIME.

ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE PUSH OF DRIER AIR, THEREFORE WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MODEL BLEND REGARDING DEW POINTS. THERE MAY BE SOME
CLOUD COVER HANGING ON FOR AWHILE AS THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR TRIES
TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD AND REPLACE A RATHER WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION DEPENDING ON HOW ANY CONVECTION THAT LINGERS BEHAVES, THERE
COULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD DEBRIS LEFTOVER FOR THE MORNING
HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY SIDED WITH A MOS BLEND TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE DRIER
AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL PATTERN AT 500 MB: POSITIVE TILT TROUGHING GRADUALLY EVOLVES
AND AMPLIFIES WITH TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SO DESPITE THE BRIEF RESPITE IN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SUMMER RETURNS IN ITS FAMILIAR
REFRAIN OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY FROM WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPS: DAILY CALENDAR DAY AVG TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY...
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN IT COOLS TO NEAR NORMAL. TEMPS COULD BE 5 OR 6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A
BELOW NORMAL DAY IN THIS LONG RANGE FORECAST PERIOD IS TUESDAY AND
MAYBE SUNDAY.

12Z GFS/GGEM WERE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET IN
THE OVERALL FCST.

I THINK WED-SAT WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
THE FCST IS THU/FRI.

HAZARDS:

WED-SAT...NARROW SWATHS OF AFTN/EVE SVR - FF PROBABLE AND SEEMS TO
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...MOSTLY IN E PA AND NNJ WHERE FFG IS LOWER
AND THEREFORE MORE VULNERABLE. THIS MORNING THE 1 HR GRIDDED FFG
IS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES UP THERE AND THE 6 HR 2.5. WEDNESDAY IS THE
LOW CONFIDENCE DAY FOR ANY TSTMS.

TT WED AND THU AFTN WILL BE NEAR 49-50 WITH DAILY SWI NEAR -3 AND
KI IN THE LOW-MID 30S. LOW SHEAR DAYS ARE MODELED WED/THU WITH
STRONGER SVR CRITERIA SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN THERE SEEMS TO BE BEST CHC OF A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK. IF THE
12Z ECMWF SOLN IS CORRECT...THE RISK FOR SATURDAY IN THIS AFD IS
OVERSTATED.

SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. I MAY HAVE FCST TOO MUCH
SUNSHINE IN THE FCST OR TOO MUCH CHC OF THUNDER.

HEAT INDEX MAY BE IN THE UPPER 90S THU AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI?
BELOW ADVY CRITERIA ATTM.

THIS FORECAST FROM 00Z TUE-00Z THU IS 12Z/5 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BLENDED
WITH THE 4AM KPHI FCST AND THEN AFTER 00Z THU...IS BASED ON THE
14Z HPCGUIDE BLENDED WITH A BIT OF 12Z GFS MEX GUIDANCE, AND MODIFIED
WITH CHECKS OF THE 00Z-12Z/5 ECMWF 2M AND 850 TEMPS AS WELL AS
SWI/TT/KI FIELDS.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AFTER A RELATIVELY WONDERFUL MONDAY
NIGHT OF SLEEPING CONDITIONS WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...A VERY FINE
TUESDAY AFTN IS FORESEEN...STILL WITH LOW DEWPOINTS! JUST ABOUT
EVERYONE SHOULD LOVE THIS WEATHER!!! LIGHT WIND.

WED-THU...AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION...MAINLY I95 NWWD. COULD BE
STARTING ANOTHER HEATWAVE ON WED WHEN 90-93F SEEMS PROBABLE...WITH
THE PRIMARY QUESTION...DOES IT CONTINUE THE REQUIRED 3RD DAY-FRIDAY?
TEMPS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH 16-17C AT 850MB.
MAINLY S WIND UNDER 15 KTS. PWAT UNDER 1.5 INCHES TO BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY PROBABLY INCREASES TO NEAR 1.8 INCHES LATE THU. ML CAPE
1000J ON WED GROWS TO 1600J THU. 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 30 KT LATE THU?

FRI/SAT...LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES OVER NYS IN RESPONSE TO MODELED
SUBSTANTIAL SUMMER TROUGHING OVER THE E GREAT LAKES. LOOKS VERY
UNSTABLE AT TIMES WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT FAVORING ORGANIZED
TSTM PRODUCTION EA AFTN. IF THE SHOWERS HOLD OFF TIL 2PM ISH...THE
17C TEMPS AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT 90-95F...SIMILAR TO TODAY-SUNDAY
THE 5TH. SSW WIND G 15-20 KTS. PWAT NEAR 1.8 FRIDAY EASES TO 1.5
INCHES SAT. ML CAPE 1000-1500J. 0-6KM SHEAR 35-45 KT FRI-SAT.

SUNDAY...QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.  COOLER WITH STILL A GOOD
CHANCE OF A HEAVY LATE DAY SHOWER OR TSTM...MAINLY OVER E PA NW NJ
IN ASSN WITH TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS THE VERTICAL MIXING WANES, THEN AS A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS A SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 30 KNOTS AND HAS GENERALLY
CLEARED KRDG AND WILL DO SO SHORTLY AT KABE. THE TAFS WERE AMENDED
TO SPEED OF THE ARRIVAL TIME. A VFR FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED
THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER WE CARRIED A TEMPO GROUP WITH SUB-VFR AND
STRONGER WINDS DURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES, THE THUNDER SHOULD BECOME MORE LIMITED THEREFORE JUST
CARRIED A SHOWER MENTION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDER
AFTER THIS LINE CLEARS THE REGION.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW SOME AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY,
THEREFORE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDER MAY LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY MAINLY
FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA ON SOUTHWARD. OVERALL, AN IMPROVING DAY IS
ANTICIPATED AS CLOUDS ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. AS A RESULT, WE
SHIFTED THE WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SCATTERED OUT THE CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING. THE WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD BE UP TO ABOUT 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE /LOW PROB/ AT
KMIV AND KRDG VERY LATE. LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LIGHT WIND.  ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KBWI-KGED LINE. LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR (AND POSSIBLY IFR) CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE COUNTRYSIDE. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT LOW PROB MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
EARLY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER E PA. S-SW WIND G UNDER 15 KTS.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY...VFR...EXCEPT MVFR CONDS IN FOG/ST IN THE MORNING AND
AGAIN LATE AT NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY N AND W OF KPHL. S-SW WIND G 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR AWHILE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THERE IS NEARLY 30 KNOTS ABOVE THE SURFACE AND WITH
DECENT MIXING, THIS HAS RESULTED IN GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ENOUGH COOLING IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS TO ALLOW THE MIXING TO WANE. BASED ON THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT IN EFFECT, HOWEVER
OVER THE BAY IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE SHAVED BACK AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
ENOUGH LATER TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
SEAS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN TO ABOUT 5 FEET. FOR MONDAY, THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE SETTLING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH A WIND
SHIFT OCCURRING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS
TO FURTHER DIMINISH SOME. THE WIND TURNING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW THE
SEAS TO SUBSIDE, THEREFORE WE WILL HOLD THE SMALL CRAFT AFTERNOON
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-THURSDAY...NO SCA ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...NO SCA FCST BUT STAY TUNED TO MODEL DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING
EVOLVING LOW PRES AND FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PW
VALUES NEAR 2.0 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE NORTHERN ZONES HAVING LOWER FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE. SOME OF THESE AREAS HAD A ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVE
THROUGH EARLIER. THE CONVECTION WILL TEND TO ORGANIZE INTO LINES AND
CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BACKBUILDING. THIS WOULD
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WHILE LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE, IT LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS POINT
THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS NOT EXPANDED. THE WATCH GOES UNTIL 12Z
MONDAY, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY.

MID AND LATE WEEK...SMALL SWATHS OF FF URBAN/SMALL STREAM PRODUCING
TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT WHERE. THAT OPPORTUNITY SHIFTS DAILY BUT MOST
FAVORED SEEMS TO BE E PA AND NNJ.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

CURRENTLY OUTLOOKING LOW ENHANCED RISK FOR MONDAY BASED ON
RESIDUALS FROM TODAY.    LOW RISK OUTLOOKED FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
JULY WAS A TOP 5 WARMEST JULY IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

PHL  81.8 WAS 3RD WARMEST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TOP 4 WARMEST WHICH
HAVE ALL OCCURRED SINCE 1994!

2011 82.4
1994 82.1
2012 81.8
2010 81.7

ILG 80.3 WAS ALSO 3RD WARMEST
1955 81.2
2011 80.8
2012 80.3
1894 80.1

ABE 6TH WARMEST AT 77.5
1955 79.0
1949 78.3
2011 AND 1995 78.0
1988 77.9
1994 77.6
2012 77.5

ACY WAS 5TH WARMEST AT 78.5
2011 81.0
2010 79.8
1983 78.7
1999 78.6
2012 78.5

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-062.
NJ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
HYDROLOGY...
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NJZ001-007>010-012-062245-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-016-020>023-027-062245-
KENT-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ054-055-062-062245-
CARBON-MONROE-NORTHAMPTON-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ003-PAZ060-061-062245-
INLAND SUSSEX-BERKS-LEHIGH-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-062245-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF WEDNESDAY... AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-024>026-062245-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY IN DELAWARE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-062245-
DELAWARE BEACHES-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY MONDAY...MAINLY IN DELAWARE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ431-450>455-062245-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-062245-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
638 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 564 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERLY               40.94N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN WEATHERLY BOROUGH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACKER TWP              40.90N  75.89W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN PACKER TWP.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING AIRPORT         40.38N  75.97W
08/05/2012  M51 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT READING AIRPORT.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEETWOOD               40.46N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES... WIRES... AND POLES DOWN IN FLEETWOOD.

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN READING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200620 PHI1200621 PHI1200619 PHI1200622 PHI1200623

KLINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERLY               40.94N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN WEATHERLY BOROUGH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACKER TWP              40.90N  75.89W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN PACKER TWP.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING AIRPORT         40.38N  75.97W
08/05/2012  M51 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT READING AIRPORT.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEETWOOD               40.46N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES... WIRES... AND POLES DOWN IN FLEETWOOD.

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN READING.

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRATERFORD              40.23N  75.45W
08/05/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN... RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 FEET IN
            LENGTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200620 PHI1200621 PHI1200619 PHI1200622 PHI1200623
PHI1200624

KLINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERLY               40.94N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN WEATHERLY BOROUGH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACKER TWP              40.90N  75.89W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN PACKER TWP.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING AIRPORT         40.38N  75.97W
08/05/2012  M51 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT READING AIRPORT.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEETWOOD               40.46N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES... WIRES... AND POLES DOWN IN FLEETWOOD.

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN READING.

0543 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORT DEPOSIT            39.60N  76.12W
08/05/2012  E65 MPH          CECIL              MD   PUBLIC

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRATERFORD              40.23N  75.45W
08/05/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN... RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 FEET IN
            LENGTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200620 PHI1200621 PHI1200619 PHI1200622 PHI1200623
PHI1200625 PHI1200624

KLINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WEATHERLY               40.94N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN WEATHERLY BOROUGH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PACKER TWP              40.90N  75.89W
08/05/2012                   CARBON             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES ON WIRES IN PACKER TWP.

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     READING AIRPORT         40.38N  75.97W
08/05/2012  M51 MPH          BERKS              PA   ASOS

            51 MPH WIND GUST AT READING AIRPORT.

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEETWOOD               40.46N  75.82W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES... WIRES... AND POLES DOWN IN FLEETWOOD.

0513 PM     TSTM WND DMG     READING                 40.33N  75.93W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN READING.

0519 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONGSWAMP TWP           40.49N  75.67W
08/05/2012                   BERKS              PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS ABOUT 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN IN
            LONGSWAMP TWP.

0543 PM     TSTM WND GST     PORT DEPOSIT            39.60N  76.12W
08/05/2012  E65 MPH          CECIL              MD   PUBLIC

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRATERFORD              40.23N  75.45W
08/05/2012                   MONTGOMERY         PA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN... RANGING FROM 4 TO 8 FEET IN
            LENGTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1200620 PHI1200621 PHI1200619 PHI1200622 PHI1200623
PHI1200626 PHI1200625 PHI1200624

KLINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
709 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NJZ016>018-020>027-060015-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-
OCEAN NJ-SALEM NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
709 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
CAPE MAY...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...OCEAN AND SALEM COUNTIES...

AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF
VINELAND TO 7 MILES WEST OF VINELAND TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
MALAGA...CHESILHURST AROUND 715 PM...WHARTON STATE FOREST...PENN
STATE FOREST AROUND 730 PM...SURF CITY...BEACH HAVEN WEST AROUND 745
PM...HARVEY CEDARS AND BARNEGAT LIGHT AROUND 800 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3960 7419 3950 7430 3947 7429 3941 7434
      3935 7442 3930 7454 3922 7463 3924 7519
      3929 7526 3928 7529 3934 7534 3936 7540
      3975 7507 3976 7418 3972 7415 3976 7415
      3976 7409

FORECASTER: HEAVENER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NJZ012>014-017>027-060030-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAMDEN NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-COASTAL OCEAN NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-
EASTERN MONMOUTH NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-OCEAN NJ-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
WESTERN MONMOUTH NJ-
730 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...CAMDEN...
CAPE MAY...CUMBERLAND...GLOUCESTER...MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH AND OCEAN
COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PERTH AMBOY TO
NEW EGYPT TO FOLSOM TO MILLVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR LEONARDO AND PORT MONMOUTH AROUND 745
PM...HIGHLANDS AND WADING RIVER AROUND 800 PM AND STRATHMERE AND
SEAVILLE AROUND 815 PM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THESE STORMS...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3980 7407 3945 7430 3925 7460 3907 7474
      3912 7490 3917 7491 3919 7517 3934 7537
      3950 7515 3946 7508 3957 7506 3986 7467
      4056 7431 4054 7424 4047 7425 4043 7400
      4047 7401 4047 7399 4033 7396

IOVINO