Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND ITS ADJACENT WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST BUILDS INTO OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK
PERIOD. A WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY
AND THEN EXIT OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE SLOW AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TAKE THEIR TIME EXITING WITH
THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE THREAT DYING OFF BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A BIT AS WE ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME GUSTY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY
WITH WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH MOST OF
THE REGION. SOME MID 80S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN DELAWARE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE POCONOS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 TODAY, OTHERWISE LOWER 70S
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALL END BY THIS EVENING.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO BRING SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALONG WILL COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WE SHOULD HAVE A PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT ON THE GUSTY SIDE, EVEN
OVERNIGHT, AND WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON TUESDAY MORNING, A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURE SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO
THE NORTHEAST, REACHING NEW BRUNSWICK, CANADA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR THURSDAY.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AND THE ASSOCIATED NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS ON BOTH DAYS.

WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT
INFLUENCING OUR REGION ON TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CUMULUS DEVELOP OVERHEAD AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE DAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHERE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AS THE
SURFACE WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE +7C TO +9C RANGE OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION. AS
A RESULT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 80 DEGREES
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST BRINGING
DRY WEATHER. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH.

A WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
HUMIDITY. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA
MAY BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE +20C SO WE MAY BEE LOOKING AT
ANOTHER PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS CONDITIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY DROP INTO OUR REGION AROUND SUNDAY. THE
TIMING AND IMPACT OF THE FRONT REMAIN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. WE WILL SIMPLY INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES. WITH TIMING STILL AN ISSUE, WE HAVE
DONE OUR BEST TO PROJECT WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES. IN GENERAL, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08-12Z, MOVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW TO MODERATE ON TIMING OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY.
CLOUDS SHOULD START TO THIN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SHOULD START
TO SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 16-18Z, WITH KACY AND KMIV BEING THE LAST
TO SHOW IMPROVEMENT. SKIES SHOULD THEN CLEAR OUT FOR TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE GUSTY IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KABE AND KTTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN
LATE NIGHT HAZE, FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.

FRIDAY...EARLY MORNING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HAZE, FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WATERS TODAY AND EXIT
THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AND THEN BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST 20-25 KTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS. MIGHT ALSO SEE SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE DELAWARE BAY AS
THE WINDS FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY.

THEREFORE, WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF LITTLE EGG FROM
MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10AM TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FEET
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ON OUR
SOUTHEASTERN MOST WATERS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THE INITIAL PUSH OF COOL AIR.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE
THE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY. WHILE THE RISK AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES
WILL REMAIN LOW, IT MAY INCREASE AND NEAR MODERATE LATER IN THE
DAY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE RISK ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST WILL BE MODERATE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-452>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-261100-
SUSSEX-WARREN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ067>071-261100-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF EXCESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY FOR HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS CENTERED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ008-261100-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-MORRIS-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ009-010-012-013-016-020>023-027-261100-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ014-024>026-261100-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>453-261100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ454-455-261100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
652 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
705 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

NJZ009-010-012-015-019-PAZ069-251200-
BUCKS PA-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-MIDDLESEX NJ-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON NJ-SOMERSET NJ-
705 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUCKS...BURLINGTON...
HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX AND SOMERSET COUNTIES...

AT 702 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN DOYLESTOWN AND FLEMINGTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR NEW HOPE AND
LAMBERTVILLE AROUND 715 AM...NEWTOWN GRANT AND NEWTOWN AROUND 730
AM...EWING AND PENNINGTON AROUND 745 AM...MERCERVILLE-HAMILTON
SQUARE AND TRENTON AROUND 800 AM.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS
WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 4043 7442 4003 7478 4034 7531 4063 7497

IOVINO