Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Paducah, KY

382 
WGUS73 KPAH 082249
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
449 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

KYC033-035-039-047-075-083-105-107-143-145-157-177-219-221-MOC023-
133-143-181-201-207-090130-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120309T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON KY-MCCRACKEN KY-MARSHALL KY-MUHLENBERG KY-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-
FULTON KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-CHRISTIAN KY-HOPKINS KY-
GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-BUTLER MO-MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-RIPLEY MO-
SCOTT MO-STODDARD MO-
449 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST FOR
SOUTHERN HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND CHRISTIAN...TODD
AND MUHLENBERG COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND HICKMAN...
GRAVES...CARLISLE...CALLOWAY...SOUTHERN CALDWELL...FULTON...TRIGG...
MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND STODDARD...SOUTHERN SCOTT...EASTERN RIPLEY...
NEW MADRID...MISSISSIPPI AND BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

AT 445 PM CST...HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT SWOLLEN 
STREAMS HAVE RESULTED IN WATER OVER NUMEROUS ROADS IN THE PURCHASE 
AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY. U.S. HIGHWAY 641 HAS WATER OVER IT NEAR 
PHILLIPS ROAD IN CALLOWAY COUNTY. PORTIONS OF SEVERAL KENTUCKY 
HIGHWAYS IN CALLOWAY...HICKMAN...CARLISLE...FULTON...AND MARSHALL 
COUNTIES HAVE WATER OVER THEM AS WELL. SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED THAT 
MANY CREEKS HAVE EXCEEDED THEIR BANKS...BUT HIGH WATER HAS NOT YET 
IMPACTED ROADWAYS IN CHRISTIAN COUNTY.

RAINS HAVE LESSENED IN THE LAST HOUR...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN 
END BY EARLY THIS EVENING. IT WILL TAKE A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR 
THE FLOOD WATERS TO RECEDE.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE MATTHEWS...MILLTOWN...BRUSH
ARBOR...WEIR...LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES AREA...GRAHAM...ENERGY...
DUNMOR...COBB...PRINCETON...POWDERLY...PEMBROKE...NORTONVILLE...
MORTONS GAP...HOPKINSVILLE...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...EARLINGTON...
DAWSON SPRINGS...CROFTON...CENTRAL CITY...CANTON...CADIZ...BENTON...
BARDWELL...WYATT...SIKESTON...POPLAR BLUFF...MOREHOUSE...MINER...
HENDRICKSON...FISK...ESSEX...EAST PRAIRIE...DUDLEY...DEXTER...
CHARLESTON...BLOOMFIELD...BERTRAND AND ANNISTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 8952 3642 8954 3651 8942 3649 8805
      3660 8803 3667 8806 3664 8707 3705 8705
      3707 8694 3720 8689 3737 8708 3738 8731
      3698 8824 3692 9068 3689 9068 3650 9059
      3650 9023 3664 9013 3663 8995 3640 8997

$$

938 
WGUS73 KPAH 090127
FFSPAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
727 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

KYC033-035-039-047-075-083-105-107-143-145-157-177-219-221-MOC023-
133-143-181-201-207-090133-
/O.EXP.KPAH.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120309T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON KY-MCCRACKEN KY-MARSHALL KY-MUHLENBERG KY-TODD KY-TRIGG KY-
FULTON KY-CALDWELL KY-CALLOWAY KY-CARLISLE KY-CHRISTIAN KY-HOPKINS KY-
GRAVES KY-HICKMAN KY-BUTLER MO-MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-RIPLEY MO-
SCOTT MO-STODDARD MO-
727 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
HOPKINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AND CHRISTIAN...TODD AND
MUHLENBERG COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND HICKMAN...
GRAVES...CARLISLE...CALLOWAY...SOUTHERN CALDWELL...FULTON...TRIGG...
MARSHALL...SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN AND SOUTHERN LYON COUNTIES IN
WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND STODDARD...SOUTHERN SCOTT...EASTERN RIPLEY...
NEW MADRID...MISSISSIPPI AND BUTLER COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

THE RAIN AS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS 
THAT A FEW ROADS MAY STILL HAVE A LITTLE WATER ON THEM...BUT THE 
WATER IS RECEDING. ALTHOUGH THE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...MOTORISTS 
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR TYPICAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS THIS 
EVENING.

LAT...LON 3637 8952 3642 8954 3651 8942 3649 8805
      3660 8803 3667 8806 3664 8707 3705 8705
      3707 8694 3720 8689 3737 8708 3738 8731
      3698 8824 3692 9068 3689 9068 3650 9059
      3650 9023 3664 9013 3663 8995 3640 8997

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1237 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST THU MAR 8 2012

UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAPID FALL OFF IN TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...AND REMOVE THUNDER CHCS FROM N TO S AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS
ON. TEMPS ARE FALLING INTO THE MID 40S WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012/

IN THE SHORTER TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST TREK...PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY TO BE
SLOW BUT STEADY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...TODAY
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH
THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE INSTABILITY STILL HARD TO COME BY...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO WARRANT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER.

THIS AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...AND BY 6 PM THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA. BEFORE ENDING...PRECIP WILL LINGER
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY PAST MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE COMBINATION OF RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM
WILL GENERATE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA.

LOOKING OUT FURTHER.../SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ THE
GEM/ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS TO THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF A
FORMERLY SW CONUS CUT-OFF LOW...AS IT EJECTS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY. THE UKMET SEEMED TO AGREE BEST WITH THE ECMWF IN THE
MID LEVELS. THE MODEL BLEND INDICATES THAT WDSPRD WARM ADVECTION
RAINS WILL BE OCCURRING BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH SOME TSTM ACTIVITY.
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW/SHRTWV WRAPS UP MON...WE MAY DRY SLOT
ACCORDING TO SOME MODELS. HOWEVER...DECREASING CHANCES OF PCPN
WERE LEFT IN THE FORECAST FOR MON AND MON NIGHT TO ACCOMODATE FOR
UNCERTAINTIES SUCH AS A GFS-LIKE SOLUTION WHICH INDICATES A
SECONDARY WAVE MOVING NEAR THE PAH FORECAST AREA IN THE SWRLY MID
LEVEL FLOW ON MON.

AFTER A DRY INTERVAL...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER SFC BOUNDARY THAT MAY
SINK TOWARD OUR REGION...DRIVEN BY A NRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS COULD
TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED TO WDLY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS. A GRADUAL
OVERALL WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AS SHRA/VERY ISOLATED TSRA
INTERMITTENTLY MOVE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE
VEERED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY TODAY AND HAVE BEEN GUSTY (UP CLOSE TO 25-30 KTS AT TIMES IN
SOME LOCATIONS). SHRA/TSRA WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND PICK BACK UP AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
336 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-090945-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
336 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE HEARTLAND. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PARTS OF THE REGION FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 AM CST THU MAR 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRACEY                  36.88N 87.63W
03/08/2012  M2.10 INCH       CHRISTIAN          KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL AS OF 1130 AM IS 2.10 INCHES. SOME LOW LYING
            AREAS ARE FLOODING.

&&

SMITTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1221 PM CST THU MAR 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BENTON                  36.85N 88.36W
03/08/2012  M2.00 INCH       MARSHALL           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE BEGINNING EARLY THIS
            MORNING.

&&

SMITTY