River Flood Warning 2, NWS Norman, OK

398 
WGUS44 KOUN 252037
FLWOUN
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
237 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

OKC005-013-260837-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120126T2037Z/
/CNEO2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120126T0000Z.120126T1437Z.NO/
237 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MINOR TO MODERATE SEVERITY...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR 
  THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY. 

* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
  
* AT 1:45 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.2 FEET.  
  
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK WILL CONTINUE RISING AND CREST 
  NEAR 22.1 FEET WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK WILL FALL 
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE MID THURSDAY MORNING. 
  
* IMPACT...AT 22 FEET...CREEK LEVELS RISE TO THREE FEET HIGHER THAN 
  FLOOD STAGE IN WESTERN ATOKA COUNTY AND THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF 
  BRYAN COUNTY. HIGH STAGES ON SMALL FEEDER STREAMS RESULT IN EVEN 
  GREATER DEPTHS TO MAINSTEM BOTTOMLANDS NEAR THEIR POINTS OF ENTRY 
  INTO CLEAR BOGGY CREEK. CROPLANDS...PASTURES...AND SOME SECONDARY
  RURAL ROADS FLOOD FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
  
  PEOPLE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD ACT NOW TO EVACUATE AND MOVE TO 
  HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT ENTER ALREADY FLOODED AREAS OR ATTEMPT TO 
  CROSS ROADWAYS COVERED BY HIGH WATER. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER 
  INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES.

$$

338 
WGUS84 KOUN 260126
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
726 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

OKC005-013-260926-
/O.CON.KOUN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120126T2037Z/
/CNEO2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120125T2330Z.120126T1437Z.NO/
726 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY 
  
* UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
  
* AT  5:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.2 FEET. 
  
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
  FALL. THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MID 
  THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

778 
WGUS84 KOUN 260730
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

OKC005-013-261530-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120126T2028Z/
/CNEO2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120125T2330Z.120126T1428Z.NO/
130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY 
  
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 
  
* AT  5:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.2 FEET. 
  
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
  FALL. THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MID 
  THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

411 
WGUS84 KOUN 261500
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

OKC005-013-261936-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120126T1936Z/
/CNEO2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120125T2330Z.120126T1336Z.NO/
900 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY 
  
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 
  
* NO OBSERVED STAGE WAS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. 
  
* MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
  FALL. THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY  
  THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

454 
WGUS84 KOUN 261556
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
956 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

OKC005-013-262233-
/O.EXT.KOUN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120126T2233Z/
/CNEO2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120125T2330Z.120126T1633Z.NO/
956 AM CST THU JAN 26 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...
 
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY 
  
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. 
  
* AT 9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.6 FEET. 
  
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING. 
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
  
* FORECAST...THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK HAS CRESTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
  FALL. THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATE 
  THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

260 
WGUS84 KOUN 261918
FLSOUN
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
118 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

OKC005-013-261948-
/O.CAN.KOUN.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-120126T2233Z/
/CNEO2.2.ER.000000T0000Z.120125T2330Z.120126T1739Z.NO/
118 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY. 
  
* AT 9:45 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.6 FEET.
  
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET.
  
* CLEAR BOGGY CREEK HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE SINCE THE 
  RIVER STAGE MEASUREMENT THIS MORNING... AND IS FORECAST TO 
  CONTINUE TO FALL.
  
  CLEAR BOGGY CREEK HAS RECEDED TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT THIS 
  LOCATION. THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS LOCATION FOR 
  THIS EVENT.
  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1202 PM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.AVIATION...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOW TO PROGRESS...
THERE IS A TREND TOWARD IMPROVING CEILINGS AT WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DEEPEN THE FETCH OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. PRIOR TO IMPROVEMENT...
EXPECT PERIODS OF DRIZZLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND KOKC. SITES WITH
MVFR CIGS AT 18Z SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 26/00Z...AND THOSE WITH
IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR. WE DO...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
ANOTHER BAND OF RAIN AND REDUCED VIS/CIGS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AT
KSPS...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KLAW TO KOUN...AS AN UPPER LOW
CIRCULATION DRIFTS UP FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS. RAIN SHOULD FINALLY
PROGRESS EAST OF THESE SITES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012/

RAIN CONTINUES IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. RADAR TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE A LULL FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SOME
SHORT-TERM MODELS. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO REASSERT THEMSELVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...RAISING
RAIN PROBABILITIES ONCE AGAIN...AND PUSHING THE POPS FARTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST.

PATCHES OF DRIZZLE HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...ALTHOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER...DEPENDING ON HOW THE
PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACTUALLY EVOLVES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012/

SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY AXIS
CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST. FARTHER SOUTHWEST... PRECIP HAS BEEN
REDEVELOPING IN THE ABILENE AREA MOVING NORTH... BUT THE MODELS
EXPECT THIS TO DIMINISH WITH TIME AS THE ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW
WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY ON LOW LEVEL SURFACES BECOMING MOSTLY
DOWNGLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BUT NONE OF THE
MODELS REALLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE
CURRENT RAIN IN THIS AREA AND MAY MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST
PERIOD POPS AT THE LAST MINUTE BASED ON TRENDS. RAIN IS STILL
LIKELY SOUTHEAST IN THE REGIME OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH THE
DAY. ANOTHER AREA OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS
OR THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. WITH 3 PLUS INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN THE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS... WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH
THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER THE
DEPARTURE OF THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY... NO
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR IS SEEN AFFECTING THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  35  57  30 /  20  30  20   0
HOBART OK         49  31  54  30 /  20  20  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  38  56  31 /  30  60  20   0
GAGE OK           52  28  54  25 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     52  31  55  27 /  20  10  10   0
DURANT OK         51  42  57  35 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ048-051-052.

TX...NONE.
&&

23/22/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-261100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1145 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AT
MIDDAY...WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CST THURSDAY JAN 26.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...70 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...10 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INCLUDING RAINFALL SINCE TUESDAY
EVENING...IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN ENDS EARLY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWOLLEN CREEKS AND STREAMS. PERSONS
WHO TRAVEL THROUGH LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
HIGH WATER. PLEASE REFER TO CURRENT FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NONE.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL ELEVATE WILDFIRE CONCERNS MONDAY.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
THURSDAY.

CMS