Severe Thunderstorm Warning 345, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
758 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING STORMS OVER WEST KY
WITH HIGH WINDS TO 70 MPH REPORTED IN THE PAH AREA. GUST FRONT
WILL PUSH TO OUR NW COUNTIES BY 0130Z. IN ADDITION TO THESE
STORMS...SEVERAL SINGLE CELL PULSE STORMS HAVE POPPED UP OVER MID
TN THIS EVENING...WITH 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL REPORTED IN SOUTH
RUTHERFORD COUNTY.

THE EVENING OHX SOUNDING SHOWED 1228 CAPE AND -5 LIFTED INDEX.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STABILIZE SOME WITH SUNSET...SO THE PULSE
ACTIVITY SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD IN INTENSITY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NW COUNTIES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. ALSO...SOME VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE SOME STREET
FLOODING.

FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS NW.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

DISCUSSION...FRONT IS TO THE NW OVER CNTRL MO MOVING SEWD WHILE
AN OLD DISSIPATING FRONT IS TO THE SOUTH OVER GA/AL/MS. THUS THESE
2 FEATURES SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION PRESENTLY OVER THE MIDSTATE.
MAINILY DUE TO THE MID LEVEL INVERSION AND LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES CLOSER LATE TODAY WE MAY START TO PICK
SOME CONVECTION IN THE EXTREME NW COUNTIES. THAT ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL THIN A GOOD BIT IN THE EAST
WHERE MOISTURE IS NOT AS PLENTIFUL. THE FRONT(WIND SHIFT) IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE NWRN COUNTIES BETWEEN 08Z AND 09Z WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IT SHOULD BE EAST OF KBNA BY 17Z AND AT KCSV 19Z TO
20Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE MIDSTATE. HOWEVER, THE FRONT DOES NOT
PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TOTALLY PUSH ALL OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA. I'VE LEFT A SLIVER OF POPS OVER THE SRN MOST AND SERN MOST
COUNTIES FOR SAT AND SUN.

THEN A 2ND SURGE OF DRY AIR PUSHES IN SUN NGT AND MON MOVING THE
FRONT AND ITS MOISTURE FURTHER INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THINK THE GFS
IS A BIT TOO FAST IN BRINGING BACK MOISTURE IN THE WEST AND HAVE
KEPT THE AREA DRY THROUGH WED NGT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES ON THU SO I'VE INCLUDED A 20 POP FOR THU AND THU NGT.

SEVERE...SPC HAS OUTLOOKED A SLGT CHC AREA OVER THE WRN OH VALLEY.
ANY SVR CONVECTION THAT FORMS IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
SVR LIMITS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THEN WITH THE FRONT OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE MIDSTATE TOMORROW
AFTN WHEN THE DIURNAL CYCLE RAMPS UP AGAIN THEY HAVE OUTLOOKED
AN AREA OVER THE SERN HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE PLUS NRN MS/AL/GA.
BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN...HPC IS OUTLOOKING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN FOR THIS EVENT.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT A MODEST PACE ACROSS THE AREA W/O
GETTING "HUNG UP". ALSO...MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT IS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
621 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-172330-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
621 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AREAS WEST OF I 65 THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NASHVILLE. A COLD FRONT
WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORTS FROM TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED.

SPOTTER THUNDERSTORM REPORTING CRITERIA...
TORNADO
FUNNEL CLOUD
FLOODING
HAIL >= 1/2 INCH
WINDS > 50 MPH (MEASURED)
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE
TREES OR POWER LINES DOWN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
738 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             11 S MURFREESBORO       35.69N 86.39W
08/16/2012  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         TN   PUBLIC

            1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN CHRISTIANA.

&&

SHERRON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
810 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

TNZ005-006-022>024-170230-
BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-STEWART-
810 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...HOUSTON...HUMPHREYS...
MONTGOMERY AND STEWART COUNTIES...

AT 800 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG... APPROXIMATELY 35 MILES WEST
OF DOVER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

WIND GUST OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS....WIND
GUSTS OF 70 MPH WERE PREVIOUSLY REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY
PASSED THROUGH WESTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3667 8786 3664 8784 3665 8730 3633 8750
      3633 8752 3619 8758 3603 8793 3596 8821
      3612 8822 3626 8809 3636 8810 3637 8801
      3644 8807 3653 8804 3668 8807

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