Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Missoula, MT

707 
WWUS55 KMSO 230546
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1146 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

MTC029-230600-
/O.CON.KMSO.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-120723T0600Z/
FLATHEAD MT-
1146 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
FOR NORTHERN FLATHEAD COUNTY...

* AT 1138 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  POLEBRIDGE...OR ABOUT 46 MILES NORTH OF EVERGREEN...AND WAS MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 4896 11401 4894 11402 4891 11400 4888 11403
      4883 11397 4886 11383 4882 11376 4867 11419
      4883 11452 4901 11433 4901 11407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 233DEG 45KT 4894 11399

$$
LOEFFELBEIN

486 
WWUS55 KMSO 230556
SVSMSO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1156 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

MTC029-230606-
/O.EXP.KMSO.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-120723T0600Z/
FLATHEAD MT-
1156 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN FLATHEAD COUNTY
EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT MDT...

LAT...LON 4896 11401 4894 11402 4891 11400 4888 11403
      4883 11397 4886 11383 4882 11376 4867 11419
      4883 11452 4901 11433 4901 11407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 233DEG 45KT 4901 11383

$$
LOEFFELBEIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
212 PM MDT Sun Jul 22 2012

...Windy and cooler day Monday with frontal passage...

.DISCUSSION...While most of the Northern Rockies has seen an
increasingly warm and dry day today, portions of south central
Idaho, including Lemhi county, have seen steady development of
isolated thunderstorms. These storms will gradually shift north and
east, impacting the Butte/Blackfoot region and adjacent
locations, including the southern Bitterroot valley. Storms will
continue through much of the night, and increase in areal coverage
to include the remainder of central Idaho and western Montana.
Frequent lightning and gusty winds are the primary features
expected with the thunderstorms.

A cool front is expected to cross on Monday, but timing has been a
persistent issue with this feature. It also appears that the front
could stall somewhere across the I-90 corridor in western
Montana by Monday afternoon. The biggest impacts from this frontal
passage will be an increase in afternoon winds and much cooler
temperatures. Confidence remains high that west winds of 15 to 25
mph with gusts up to 35 mph are likely through the evening across
all of the Northern Rockies. This will pose problems for those
with plans to be out on area lakes, including Flathead Lake, where
increased chop is likely. Winds will then dissipate shortly after
sunset.

Tuesday and Wednesday, moisture and energy will remain along the
Montana/Canadian border keeping a threat of showers and
thunderstorms across extreme northwest Montana. Temperatures will
begin to rebound back into the middle 80s as warmer air builds
back into the region. For the end of the work week into next
weekend, the extended models advertise a ridge of high pressure, but
disagree on the placement of the ridge axis. The European keeps a
drier scenario with the ridge overhead until Saturday, while the
GFS shows more of a southwest upper level flow with embedded waves
of moisture and energy moving through Lemhi county and southwest
Montana. The GFS has been more consistent with its solution, and
that's the way the current forecast is trended. Therefore, there
is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms each day with
temperatures warming back into the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will continue to limit winds and cloud
development today, keeping most locations across the Northern
Rockies under clear skies. At the same time, moisture from the
south will combine with instability to produce thunderstorms
across south central Idaho and southwest Montana. KBTM and KSMN
will be the most likely terminals to be affected by convective
activity this evening. Frequent lightning, small hail, and gusty
winds will be possible with any storms that do develop. Expect
nocturnal development of storms as well, spreading across the
rest of the region, impacting KMSO and KGPI as well as KBTM and
KSMN.

&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.

ID...RED FLAG WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight Eastern Lemhi County.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
748 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CONDON                  47.53N 113.71W
07/22/2012                   MISSOULA           MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE CONDON AREA

&&

LBR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
956 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

MTZ001-004-230445-
KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION-LOWER CLARK FORK REGION-
956 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SANDERS AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM MDT...

AT 948 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOXON...OR 28 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THOMPSON FALLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MAINLY AREAS ALONG
HIGHWAY 200 OF NORTHWESTERN SANDERS AND HIGHWAY 2 OF SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL
PROTECTED AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 4845 11543 4826 11504 4781 11571 4796 11593
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 213DEG 41KT 4797 11567