Gale Warning 39, NWS Marquette, MI

428 
WHUS73 KMQT 120317
MWWMQT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

LMZ248-250-121130-
/O.EXP.KMQT.GL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-121112T0300Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0130.000000T0000Z-121113T1600Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE GALE WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  12 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 17 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SUNDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ240-241-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121113T1500Z/
SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012 /917 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM
CST/ TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  8 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 11 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST TUESDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ242-243-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121114T0000Z/
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WITH 
  GUSTS UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES 
  WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 13 FEET 
  POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ244-245-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121113T1800Z/
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  9 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ246-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121113T1000Z/
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 24 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  5 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ247-248-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121113T1000Z/
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  5 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 8 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 AM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 AM EST MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ249-250-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121113T1800Z/
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  9 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 14 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 1 AM EST TUESDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LSZ251-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121114T0000Z/
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  10 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 15 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 2 AM EST TUESDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ221-121130-
/O.CON.KMQT.SC.Y.0129.000000T0000Z-121113T1200Z/
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-
1017 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY: EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST...WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 
  7 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 10 FEET POSSIBLE. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EST MONDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 10 PM EST SUNDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

MCD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
445 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
SCNTRL CANADA THRU THE WRN PLAINS. DEEP SRLY FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS TRANSPORTED ABUNDANT MOISTURE N INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. 12Z RAOBS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER RUNNING
200-275PCT OF NORMAL OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...SHARP
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR TO JUST E OF THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN S TO THE W OF KIMT. SHARP FRONT PLOWING INTO DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEALTHY UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
130-140KT UPPER JET STREAK LIFTING UP FRONT SIDE OF TROF HAS
RESULTED IN A SOLID BAND OF SHRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT TODAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT...TEMP HAS ALREADY PLUMMETED TO 37 AT KIWD WHERE RAIN IS
JUST ABOUT DONE.

THERE ARE PLENTY OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...RANGING FROM
PROGRESSION OF RAIN BAND E ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLE BRIEF
WINTRY MIX ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN...AND THEN TRANSITION TO LES
AND POSSIBLE WINTER WX HEADLINE MON.

FCST FOR THIS EVENING IS LARGELY BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF SHRA.
SINCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERTOP SHARP COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW SHRA TO
PERSIST ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES E...WILL SPREAD CATEGORICAL POPS
STEADILY E ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN FCST AREA TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SFC COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REACH THE SOO LATE TONIGHT. PCPN
ACROSS THE W AND CNTRL WILL END AS RIBBON OF PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL
DRYING FOLLOWS UPPER JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE AREA. BEFORE
PCPN ENDS...THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR A LITTLE SLEET THEN SNOW TO
OCCUR AS INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR UNDERCUTS THE LINGERING WARMER
AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER...THERE ISN'T MUCH SIGNAL FOR SUFFICIENT FORCING
TOO FAR W OF THE COLD FRONT TO COUNTER THE SHARP MID LEVEL DRYING
AND KEEP PCPN LINGERING IN THE COLD AIR FOR TOO LONG. ANY SLEET OR
SNOW THAT DOES OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN FRONTAL SHRA BAND
SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANYTHING. THE MIXED PCPN POTENTIAL WILL
SPREAD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MODELS ARE A LITTLE
FASTER WITH CAA. LINGERING LIGHT PCPN OVER THE E SHOULD END BY MID
MORNING MON.

AS MAIN SYNOPTIC PCPN EXITS...ATTENTION TURNS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
WITH SFC WATER TEMPS OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AROUND 6C...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR 850MB TEMPS TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY FOR LES
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z...BUT MORE SO BTWN 09-12Z AS TEMPS WILL BE
DOWN TO -12 TO -14C AT 12Z. MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT WILL INITIALLY WORK TO
KEEP COVERAGE MORE LIMITED. SO SCT COVERAGE POPS FOR -SHSN APPEAR ON
TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

LES FCST GETS MORE INTERESTING MON AS MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND POOL
OF DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES. THIS RESULTS IN INVERSION LIFTING TOWARD
10KFT. WITH 850MB TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND -13C THRU THE DAY...DGZ
ENDS UP WITHIN THE MOIST CONVECTIVE LAYER...AND AT LEAST WITH THE
NAM...THERE IS A NICE INTERSECTION OF UPWARD MOTION THRU THE DGZ.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CRITICAL. VARIOUS HIGH RES MODELS (LOCAL HIGH
RES WRF AND NCEP HIGH RES ARW/NMM) INCLUDING NAM/REGIONAL GEM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING MORE OF A WSW WIND OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A DOMINANT CONVERGENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND STREAMING TOWARD THE NRN PORTION OF THE KEWEENAW
PENINSULA MON...WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE FOR THIS TYPE OF
LOW-LEVEL WIND FLOW. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO. WITH POTENTIAL OF MDT TO PERHAPS HVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AT
TIMES GIVEN FAVORABLE TEMP/MOISTURE PROFILE...OPTED TO GO WITH A
WINTER WX ADVY FOR NRN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW COUNTIES MON. EXPECT MAIN
FOCUS OF HEAVIER LES TO BE N OF HOUGHTON...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTN
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AROUND CALUMET THRU DELAWARE WHERE SNOW
MAY ACCUMULATE TO AROUND 4 INCHES DURING THE DAY MON. VERY LATE IN THE
AFTN...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE TO THE W WHICH WILL PUSH
HEAVIER SNOW OVER MORE OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. SINCE ONTONAGON
COUNTY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND POSSIBLY S OF MOST OF
THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW...DID NOT INCLUDE ADVY FOR THAT AREA AT THIS
TIME. TO THE E...WINDS WILL PROBABLY HAVE ENOUGH OFFSHORE COMPONENT
TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEVELOPING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW OFFSHORE OF
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCT FLURRIES/-SHSN TO
ACCOMPANY ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL TROF OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF OF UPPER
MI MON. WITH 850MB THERMAL TROF MOVING OVER THE AREA...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE VERY LITTLE. IN FACT...TO THE W...TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE ONLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS/LWR 20S IN THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. SO...TEMPS LIKELY
WON'T RISE OUT OF THE MID/UPPER 20S OVER WRN UPPER MI MON...AND
TEMPS MAY FALL SOME OVER THE E AS CAA CONTINUES THRU THE MORNING IN
THAT AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING IN THE LONG TERM WITH
MAIN FOCUS MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH LES.

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA /E OF THE
KEWEENAW/ AT 00Z TUE WITH A SLIGHTLY LAGGING SFC TROUGH OVER WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CAUSES CONCERN
WITH CHANCES FOR LES PARTICULARLY OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -11C AT 00Z TUE...WITH THE TOP OF THE INVERSION
ABOVE THE DGZ AT AROUND 9500FT WITH TEMPS AROUND -24C. WHILE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAT A FEW HOURS
BEFORE...THE INVERSION LOOKS TO BE DEEPEST AROUND 00Z TUE...SO BEST
OVERALL AVG COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN AROUND THIS TIME.
AFTER 00Z TUE...A SFC RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY 18Z TUE WITH 850MB
TEMPS STEADILY INCREASING TO AOA -5C BY 00Z WED. MOISTURE...WHICH
WILL BE AMPLE FOR LES AT 00Z...WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z TUE. MOISTURE
FROM 850MB AND UP WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 60 PERCENT RH OVER THE WRN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 09Z TUE...AND OVER THE ENTIRE LAKE BY 15Z
TUE. 925MB-850MB RH DECREASES BELOW 60 PERCENT OVER THE WRN HALF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 15Z TUE...AND THE MOST OF THE REST OF THE LAKE BY
00Z WED. AT LEAST FROM 00Z TUE TO 06Z WED...WINDS LOOK TO GUST TO
35-40MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA WITH THE W WINDS. COLD SECTOR
LIVING AT ITS BEST.

TAKING A CLOSER LOOKS AT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND OTHER HAZARDS FOR TUE
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...WHICH IS
GOOD FOR LES BANDING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM A WSW
DIRECTION MON EVENING...WHICH WILL FAVOR A DOMINANT BAND WITH
INTENSE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE MON. THOSE WSW WINDS BECOME MORE WLY
BY 00Z TUE AND SLOWLY VEER INTO TUE AS THE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE
W. THIS WILL MOVE THE WEAKENING DOMINANT BAND FROM N TO S ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY MON NIGHT...BUT THE FACT THAT
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER WILL KEEP THE STRONGER BAND FROM SITTING
OVER ANY ONE PLACE FOR TOO LONG...HELPING TO KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS
FROM GETTING TO HIGH. THE BEST AREA OF LIFT WILL SPAN THE
DGZ...WHICH WILL HELP MAKE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS HIGH...BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL KNOCK THOSE DOWN SOME. EXPECT SLR VALUES AROUND 18-20 TO
1. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MON NIGHT /ON TOP OF WHAT FALL MON/
LOOK TO BE UP TO AROUND 4 INCHES...HIGHEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FROM ROCKLAND TO SOUTH RANGE. WITH THE WINDS...BLOWING SNOW WILL
ALSO BE AN ISSUE...BUT A LIMITED ONE GIVEN NO SNOW ON THE GROUND
YET. AS FOR THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE OVER THE KEWEENAW...BY 12Z TUE
WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20MPH OR LESS AND SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED...SO CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY DEPEND ON HOW
WELL ROAD CREWS CAN CLEAR EARLIER SNOW OFF THE ROADS...BUT AT LEAST
SLICK ROADS APPEAR LIKELY.

WITH THE WINDS BECOMING MORE WNW THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE ERN CWA
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR /MAINLY E OF MUNISING/ SHOULD SEE SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AS WELL. THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKIER OVER
THERE...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN AND HOW FAR LES BAND
WILL MOVE ONSHORE. SIMILAR TO THE KEWEENAW THERE SHOULD BE A MORE
DOMINANT BAND SITTING OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE
AS CONDITIONS START TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR LES. PUSH
CONDITIONS BACK A FEW HOURS FROM TIMING OVER THE KEWEENAW...SO THE
BAND SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER ONSHORE AROUND 06Z TUE...BUT SHOULD BEGIN
WEAKENING SHORTLY DUE TO DRIER AIR AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
GRADUALLY MOVING IN. COULD SEE TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES
MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

HAVE A WINTER WX ADV THAT EXTENDS TO 12Z TUE FOR NRN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES. WILL POSSIBLY NEED AN ADV FOR ONTONAGON AND MAYBE
SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTY MON NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE THOSE DETAILS TO
MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND HIGHLIGHT IN HWO. ALSO MAY NEED AN ADV FOR PARTS
OF THE ERN CWA CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THOSE DETAILS ARE EVEN
LESS CERTAIN.

WITH FAIRLY BENIGN...LOW IMPACT WEATHER AFTER CONDITIONS SUBSIDE
TUE...JUST USED A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SO AS TO PLACE MOST TIME/EMPHASIS ON SHORTER TERM IMPACTS.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS SHRA OVERSPREADS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL UPPER MI IN RELATION TO A DISTURBANCE RIDING NEWD ALONG
COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MI. KEPT TAF SITES
WITHIN FUEL ALTERNATE CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST...LIFR CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT AT SOME POINT...ESPECIALLY AT CMX THIS AFTN/EVNG WITH GUSTY
UPSLOPE W WIND BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. EXPECT THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
AIR TO CAUSE THE PCPN TO DIMINISH JUST AS ENUF COLD AIR SURGES INTO
THE AREA TO CHANGE THE RA TO SN. THE BEST CHC FOR HEAVIER -SHSN
LATER TNGT WL BE AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX LOCATION...WHERE GUSTY
WINDS WL LINGER AS WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE CIG CONDITIONS TO VFR AT KIWD AND KSAW BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 442 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

SHARP COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING LAKE SUPERIOR ATTM.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...S WINDS OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO
GALE FORCE AT TIMES THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA AROUND
GRAND MARAIS WHICH IS FAVORED FOR STRONG WINDS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
ALTHOUGH CAA IS STRONG BEHIND COLD FRONT...LACK OF STRONGER SFC PRES
RISES WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS REMAINING BLO GALE
FORCE TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS JUST A BIT ON MON AS
SECONDARY SFC TROF APPROACHES. WITH COLD AIR AND UNSTABLE
LOW-LEVELS...OCNL GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT ARE POSSIBLE MON/MON
EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN SLACKENS LATE MON NIGHT/TUE WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING BLO 25 KTS. A LOW PRES TROF WILL PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO THU. S WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROF COULD REACH 25 KTS
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WED/WED NIGHT. WINDS TO
FINISH UP THE WEEK WILL BE BLO 20 KTS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES
WEAK WITH SFC HIGH PRES PASSING.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
  WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     MIZ001-003.

LAKE SUPERIOR...NONE.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JMW
MARINE...ROLFSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
356 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

MIZ001-003-122200-
KEWEENAW-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-
356 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER REPORTS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

MIZ002-122200-
ONTONAGON-
356 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

MIZ004>007-009>014-084-085-122200-
BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-
DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-
356 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012 /256 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-122200-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND
PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI-
BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI-
ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI-
EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI-
MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI-
POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI-
LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING
KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI-
MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI-
GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE
CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE
ROYALE NATIONAL PARK-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU
ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER
BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE-
LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF
SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER-
356 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012 /256 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

LMZ221-248-250-122200-
GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI-
5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-
356 PM EST SUN NOV 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

TITUS