Alert archive / Alabama / Small Craft Advisories in 2012

Small Craft Advisory 51, NWS Mobile, AL

December 24, 2012

NWS Mobile, AL issued this small craft advisory at Dec 24, 2012, 9:38 PM CST. It took effect at Dec 25, 2012, 9:00 AM CST. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 24, 2012, 9:38 PM CST (03:38 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 25, 2012, 9:00 AM CST
Expired
Dec 25, 2012, 6:00 PM CST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

147 
WHUS74 KMOB 250338
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
938 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT 20 NM...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE BAY AND INLAND BAYS
FROM NOON TUESDAY THROUGH 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY...

.A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
STATES ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
MARINE AREA CHRISTMAS NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THEN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND BECOME STRONG BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THEN
SWITCH TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING GALE FORCE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

GMZ650-655-251145-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-121227T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SC.Y.0051.121225T1500Z-121227T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
938 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON CHRISTMAS
  DAY THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS
  CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY
  SUBSIDES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS: SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FEET
  BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ630>635-251145-
/O.EXB.KMOB.SC.Y.0050.121225T1800Z-121227T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
938 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON CHRISTMAS
  DAY THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 25 KNOTS
  CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY
  SUBSIDES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS: BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ670-675-251145-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-121227T0000Z/
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
938 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY...INCREASING TO 20
  TO 25 KNOTS ON CHRISTMAS THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST 25
  TO 30 KNOTS CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
  GRADUALLY SUBSIDES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* SEAS: SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 11 FEET
  BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
2 follow-up statements
573 
WHUS74 KMOB 251041
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
441 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
WATERS...

.A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
STATES TODAY AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE AREA
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THEN END WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY THEN SHIFT TO A STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS LIKELY MOVING
ABOVE GALE FORCE TONIGHT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. HIGH AND
DANGEROUS SEAS FORECAST. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION.

GMZ670-675-251900-
/O.UPG.KMOB.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-121227T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.GL.W.0007.121226T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SC.Y.0052.121225T1500Z-121226T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SC.Y.0053.121226T1800Z-121227T0000Z/
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
441 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
  SWITCHING TO THE WEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
  TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
  WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO GALE FORCE.

* SEAS: SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 11 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE
AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ650-655-251900-
/O.EXT.KMOB.SC.Y.0051.121225T1500Z-121226T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.GL.W.0007.121226T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SC.Y.0054.121226T1800Z-121227T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
441 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM
CST THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
  SWITCHING TO THE WEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
  TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
  WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO GALE FORCE.

* SEAS: SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE
AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF
GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ630>635-251900-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0050.121225T1800Z-121227T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
441 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS
  THROUGH THE DAY THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST AROUND 25 KNOTS TONIGHT
  WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED BY MID TO
  LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AT SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY. 

* SEAS: BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$
846 
WHUS74 KMOB 252023
MWWMOB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
223 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA OPEN
GULF WATERS FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING AND
THEN FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF THE MARINE AREA...

.A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
STATES TODAY AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP...THEN END WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN
SHIFT TO A STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS LIKELY MOVING ABOVE GALE FORCE TONIGHT OVER MOST
OF THE MARINE AREA. HIGH AND DANGEROUS SEAS FORECAST. THE STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

GMZ650-655-260430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0051.000000T0000Z-121226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0007.121226T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0054.121226T1800Z-121227T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
223 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6
PM CST WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
  SWITCHING TO THE WEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
  FORCE TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
  MORNING WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO GALE FORCE.

* SEAS: SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ670-675-260430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-121226T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.GL.W.0007.121226T0000Z-121226T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0053.121226T1800Z-121227T0000Z/
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
223 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
6 PM CST THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...THEN 
  SWITCHING TO THE WEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE 
  TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING WITH GUSTS CONTINUING TO GALE FORCE. 

* SEAS: SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 8 TO 11 FEET BY EARLY 
  WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

GMZ630>635-260430-
/O.CON.KMOB.SC.Y.0050.000000T0000Z-121227T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
223 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
WEDNESDAY. 

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS 
  THROUGH THE DAY THEN SWITCHING TO THE WEST AROUND 25 KNOTS 
  TONIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES BETTER 
  DEFINED BY MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AT SPEEDS FROM 20 TO 
  25 KNOTS AND GUSTY. 

* SEAS: BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS...
AND/OR SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Dec 24, 8:30 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 8:30 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
830 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

.UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE TO REFLECT DENSE FOG/STRATUS SPREADING
INLAND. WITH THE CLOUD FREE SKIES...LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE GULF
AND DECENT MIXING AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DENSE FOG HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA. WITH THE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LATER A GENERAL WESTERLY...HAVE LIMITED THE INLAND SPREAD OF THE
DENSE FOG TO AREAS SOUTH OF A SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY...MISS TO
NORTHERN COVINGTON COUNTY...ALABAMA LINE. ALSO HAVE LIMITED THE E3ND
TIME TO 10Z AS FEEL THAT WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE NEAR DAWN
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES...THE FOG WILL MIX OUT TO A LOW
STRATUS.

/16

*****PREVIOUS UPDATE*************
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE FORECAST BASED ON WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OVER BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS...THOUGH STRONGER AND 15-20
KNOTS OVER THE 20-60 NM PORTION.  THESE WIND SPEEDS REMAIN SIMILAR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THEN INCREASE CHRISTMAS DAY TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ALL BUT THE BAYS AND INLAND WATERWAYS WHERE
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT.  A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR THE BAYS AND INLAND
WATERWAYS FOR CHRISTMAS NIGHT.  AM ALSO EVALUATING THE NEED FOR
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WHICH MAY
BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /29

&&

** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION **

.AVIATION (00Z ISSUANCE)...UPDATED FOR IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING
THE PERIOD WITH LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG.  VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO 6 SM OR BETTER BY LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT TO 7-8 KNOTS.  CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH VCTS BY 10Z AT MOB/BFM AND 12Z AT PNS.
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE...WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FROM
10-13Z AT MOB/BFM AND 12-15Z AT PNS FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AT 13Z AT MOB/BFM AND 15Z AT PNS. /29

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT]..LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT PACKAGE ASIDE FROM TEMPERATURES WHICH GUIDANCE HAS COOLED
DOWN BY 4 TO 5 FAHRENHEIT DEGREES MOSTLY INLAND...FOR LOWS. DOWN BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS. SURFACE CHART SHOWS A LOW MOVING OUT OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A WARM FRONT MOVING
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. EARLIER RADAR RETURNS SHOWED
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH FLASHES OF LIGHTNING HERE AND
THERE...OCCASIONALLY MORE WITH STRONGER CELL. MOVEMENT WAS EAST
AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH. A 500 MB OPEN WAVE WAS PROVIDING SOME FORCING
FOR THIS CONVECTION. AT THAT POINT THE LOW IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
MOVES RAPIDLY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES BY TONIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE COAST. VERTICAL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL RETURN SCATTERED
CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER UNTIL
TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONVECTION WILL RESTART IN EARNEST BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTER SUNRISE THERE WILL BE A RISK OF A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
CHRISTMAS DAY. SEE BELOW. 77/BD

[CHRISTMAS DAY]...

A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR FROM EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

A VERY POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS IN THE
MORNING WILL MOVE VERY QUICKLY TOWARD EAST THEN NORTHEAST...REACHING
WESTERN TENNESSEE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A 90 TO 120 KNOT JET MAXIMUM AT 300
MB WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST
AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. DIFLUENCE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
DOWNSTREAM OF THE JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA. 50 KNOT JET MAX AT 850
MB THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ORLEANS TO TUSCALOOSA BY LATE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 55 TO 60 KNOTS AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS ALABAMA.

AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TEXAS
WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE QUICKLY EAST OVER THE SAN ANTONIO-AUSTIN
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE...THE SABINE RIVER MIDWAY UP THE WEST LOUISIANA
STATE LINE BY CHRISTMAS NOON...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY LATE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. IT WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 996 MB BY THEN WHICH
PLACES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
WELL PLACED HIGH HUMIDITY INFLOW FOR CONVECTION. 850 MB DEWPOINTS
RANGING FROM 8C TO 11C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL REACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EARLY IN THE EVENING AND THEN SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM MID EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE SLOWED DOWN ABOUT 3 HOURS SLOWER THAN IT WAS
IN RUNS PREVIOUS TO 24/00Z DUE TO NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
TIMING IS STILL UNCHANGED. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 3
AM...POSTFRONTAL RAIN WILL LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CHRISTMAS DAY STILL HAS ACCOUTERMENTS OF A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT. 500-300 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE NEAR 8 C/KM AND MUCAPES
APPROACH 2000 J/KG CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. STILL EXPECT
SUPERCELLS DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT...AND THEN WITH BOWING RADAR STRUCTURES/LINE
ECHO WAVE PATTERNS AFFECTING THE AREA DURING THE EVENING THROUGH
ABOUT 3 AM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BRN INDICES GREATER
THAN 10 AND SFC-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY NEAR 400 M^2/S^2 SUGGEST
THAT CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS ARE FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION...MOST OF
THIS HELICITY IS NOW RESIDING IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER AND EHI VALUES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2...SUGGESTING THE
FORMATION OF STRONG CONVECTIVE SUPERCELLS WITH LONG TRACK EF-2 AND
EF-3 TORNADOES POSSIBLE. LI -4 TO -5. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.

DUE TO EXTREMELY STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS RESULTING IN STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 50 TO 60 MPH...ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN VERY QUICKLY IF A WARNING IS ISSUED
UPSTREAM...SO DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE OR WAIT FOR A THREAT TO APPEAR
IMMINENT BEFORE TAKING ACTION...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. STAY TUNED TO
FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS AND INFORMATION AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...NO CHANGES EXCEPT TO LOW
TEMPERATURES. IT WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WITH
TEMPS DROPPING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS AND A DRY PERIOD LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST SETTING UP A
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER LONG WAVE SETTLING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO NORMAL OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. 77/BD

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING OVER
LOUISIANA ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA LATE CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON AND CHRISTMAS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE MARINE AREA DURING CHRISTMAS DAY THEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
CHRISTMAS EVENING AND CLEARING THE AREA TO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THE RISK INCREASES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE
THUNDERSTORMS. ONSHORE FLOW IS ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE MARINE
AREA...APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AT TIMES...AND SEAS OFFSHORE ARE ALREADY
BEING OBSERVED AT AROUND 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
FURTHER INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE OPTED
TO GO AHEAD AND HOIST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE GULF WATERS
ZONES BEGINNING AT 6 PM THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY JUST IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT COULD BE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST VERY LATE
CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE FROM SCA TO GALE WARNING FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
OFFSHORE FLOW DECREASES AND SEAS TREND LOWER MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 12/DS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASING THIS
EVENING AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWEST TRANSPORT
WINDS...COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH OR WARNING CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MET. 77/BD

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      56  72  53  56  31 /  40  90  90  10  10
PENSACOLA   59  72  59  62  33 /  30  80 100  10  10
DESTIN      60  71  63  64  37 /  30  70 100  20  10
EVERGREEN   50  70  56  59  29 /  20 100 100  10  10
WAYNESBORO  47  69  41  49  26 /  30 100  80  10  10
CAMDEN      47  67  51  54  29 /  20 100  90  10  10
CRESTVIEW   52  72  59  62  30 /  30  80 100  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...
     LOWER MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
     WASHINGTON...

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
     INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 9:09 PM CST, 29 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
909 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-260315-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
909 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA UNTIL THE FOG DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE
IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND COASTAL ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS
PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME STRONG...LONG TRACKED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS
LIKELY.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATER CHRISTMAS
NIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF THESE STORMS
PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH SOME STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS LIKELY.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE FORMED OUT WEST ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI AND WILL RACE
EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY CHRISTMAS
EVENING AND MOVING EAST OF A BRANTLEY...LUVERNE TO DESTIN LINE
BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN
ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO
80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS LIKELY FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL SPOTTERS REQUESTED TO PLEASE STAND BY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-260315-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
909 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND CHRISTMAS

DENSE FOG MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS OVER BAYS
UNTIL THE FOG DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT
AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON
TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...THERE IS A INCREASED RISK FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE MARINE STORMS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
CHRISTMAS DAY. THERE IS A RISK FOR TORNADOES OVER WATER AS WELL WHICH
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE ORDINARY WATERSPOUT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER OVER THE MARINE
AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED ON CHRISTMAS
COULD RESULT IN TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS LATER IN
THE DAY CLOSER TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE MARINE STORMS WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF SOME
OF THESE STORMS PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER WATER.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE FORMED WEST OF THE MARINE AREA AND WILL
RACE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MARINE AREA CHRISTMAS EVENING AND EXIT EAST OF
DESTIN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE MARINE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS AS WELL. TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING HOURS.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG LINE OF STORMS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY...AND BE CAPABLE OF CAPSIZING SMALLER
MARINE CRAFT. EVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...POSSIBLE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE...CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EARLY
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME FOR POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...BUT
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT DUE TO STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE WINDS SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 24, 5:09 PM CST, 4 hours 29 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
509 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251600-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...MOBILE...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...
TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...DAPHNE...FAIRHOPE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...CENTURY...FLOMATON...MOLINO...PENSACOLA...
FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...
MYRTLE GROVE...JAY...PACE...MILTON...GULF BREEZE...CRESTVIEW...
WRIGHT...FORT WALTON BEACH...NICEVILLE...DESTIN...SEMINOLE...
EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...BEAUMONT...
NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN...WIGGINS...LUCEDALE
509 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FROM EARLY
CHRISTMAS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY)...BRINGING
A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE INJECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN MOBILE HAS FOUND THAT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

LATEST COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AND
INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A RISK OF THESE STORMS
PRODUCING TORNADOES DURING THE DAY...WITH SOME STRONG...LONG TRACKED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IS
LIKELY.

BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM OUT WEST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR IN MISSISSIPPI. THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RACE EASTWARD...REACHING THE INTERSTATE
65 CORRIDOR BY EARLY CHRISTMAS EVENING AND EAST OF A BRANTLEY...
LUVERNE TO DESTIN LINE BY...OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 80 MPH AND LARGE HAIL...BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO END DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER
SITUATION.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 4:41 AM CSTGale WarningMOB31 hr
Dec 25, 4:41 AM CSTSmall Craft AdvisoryMOB13 hr
Dec 25, 4:41 AM CSTSmall Craft AdvisoryMOB42 hr
Dec 25, 4:41 AM CSTSmall Craft AdvisoryMOB42 hr
Dec 25, 2:01 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB62 min
Dec 25, 2:43 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke32 min
Dec 25, 2:55 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke, Monroe65 min
Dec 25, 3:14 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB61 min
Dec 25, 3:35 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBCovington, Crenshaw55 min
Dec 25, 4:07 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke, Monroe, Wilcox68 min
Dec 25, 4:12 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBMobile33 min
Dec 25, 4:13 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB17 min
Dec 25, 4:17 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke, Mobile, Washington10 min
Dec 25, 4:24 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBCrenshaw51 min
Dec 25, 4:24 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBChoctaw66 min
Dec 25, 4:28 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBWilcox17 min
Dec 25, 4:39 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBConecuh, Escambia, Monroe51 min
Dec 25, 4:41 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBConecuh, Escambia49 min
Dec 25, 4:44 PM CSTTornado Warning EmergencyMOBBaldwin, Mobile61 min
Dec 25, 4:47 PM CSTSpecial Marine WarningMOB43 min
Dec 25, 4:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBClarke, Mobile, Washington55 min
Dec 25, 4:52 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBChoctaw, Clarke, Washington53 min
Dec 25, 4:52 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBCrenshaw38 min
Dec 25, 5:00 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBMobile, Washington45 min
Dec 25, 5:08 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBCrenshaw45 min
Dec 25, 5:08 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBWilcox52 min
Dec 25, 5:13 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBCovington18 min
Dec 25, 5:16 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBBaldwin, Clarke, Mobile, Monroe44 min
Dec 25, 5:17 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke, Washington58 min
Dec 25, 5:23 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBMonroe, Wilcox23 min
Dec 25, 5:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBChoctaw, Clarke, Mobile, Washington62 min
Dec 25, 5:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBChoctaw, Clarke, Wilcox65 min
Dec 25, 5:44 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke, Wilcox46 min
Dec 25, 5:56 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBClarke, Washington64 min
Dec 25, 3:19 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBPerry, Stone56 min
Dec 25, 3:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGreene, Perry, Wayne56 min
Dec 25, 4:06 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBGreene, Perry54 min
Dec 25, 4:12 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBGeorge, Greene, Perry, Stone48 min
Dec 25, 4:14 PM CSTTornado WarningMOBPerry, Wayne61 min

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alabama, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.