Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Mobile, AL

085 
WWUS54 KMOB 101620
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1020 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

MSC041-111-153-101700-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-121210T1700Z/
WAYNE MS-PERRY MS-GREENE MS-
1020 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST
FOR NORTHERN GREENE...EAST CENTRAL PERRY AND EASTERN WAYNE
COUNTIES...

AT 1016 AM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7
MILES EAST OF WAYNESBORO TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF LEAKESVILLE...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYNESBORO...         STATE LINE...         CLARA...
  BUCKATUNNA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CST MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 8869 3185 8849 3123 8844 3122 8890
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 270DEG 31KT 3170 8850 3130 8862

$$
!-

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT OVER EAST CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA HAS HAD
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK
TORNADOES. THIS LINE IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPES
RISING TO NEAR 500 J/KG WITH 0-1 SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2 AHEAD OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THESE VALUES ARE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUED SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE AND
POSSIBLY A WEAK TORNADO. FOR THIS REASON...A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO
THREAT MAY VERY WELL END BY MIDDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER ARKANSAS QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SHEAR VALUES GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. AT THIS
POINT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR
LOOKS LOW. 34/JFB

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 524 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012)...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...EARLY MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TO OUR
WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST THROUGH TODAY AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY THIS
EVENING. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. LIFT WILL DECREASE
ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SHEARS OUT AND MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A DECREASING TREND IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER...HOWEVER VERY WEAK INSTABILITY (DUE TO WEAK LAPSE
RATES) ALONG WITH WEAKENING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND THE
SPC HAS OUTLOOKED EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT
RISK. RAIN WILL END THIS EVENING WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVING
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER
FAR WESTERN LOCATIONS TO THE LOW TO MID 70S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES TO UPPER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. 13/JC

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...THE SFC FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE COOLER AND DRIER
LOLVL AIRMASS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE BACK
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND ALSO PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TUESDAY ONLY IN THE
50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA...THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER COLD...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S OVER INTERIOR NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST ZONES.
MAYBE A FEW LOWER 40S ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST. 12/DS

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SFC AND ALOFT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH COOL TEMPS CONTINUING AND NO PCPN
EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S THURSDAY...SLOWLY
MODERATING THROUGH THE 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. 12/DS

.AVIATION (10/12Z ISSUANCE)...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. 13/JC

.MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. 13/JC

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. RAIN CHANCES LINGER EAST OF I-65 AND ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. DISPERSIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE GOOD ON MONDAY DUE TO
STRONG SOUTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT DISPERSIONS WILL BECOME FAIR
ON TUESDAY. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM...MISSISSIPPI
     SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...
     PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
     PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
918 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
918 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR
WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. A
BRIEF...WEAK TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS REQUESTED
IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA IN SUPPORT OF
A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-111130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
918 AM CST MON DEC 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.