Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Melbourne, FL

247 
WHUS72 KMLB 201422
MWWMLB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1022 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

AMZ570-210200-
/O.EXB.KMLB.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-120621T0800Z/
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
1022 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY. 

* WINDS AND SEAS...WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER 
  GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ552-572-210200-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-120621T0800Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
1022 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER 
  GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AMZ555-575-210200-
/O.EXT.KMLB.SC.Y.0022.000000T0000Z-120621T0200Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
1022 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS AND SEAS...WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER 
  GUSTS WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 33 KNOTS
AND/OR SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED BOATERS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID
NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK...

OVERNIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WIND CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE
LINES OF SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE UP AND DOWN THE COAST. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT PAST INTERSTATE 95 BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
STRONGER WINDFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS...FORT PIERCE SOUTH...WILL
PUSH SHOWERS INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AS ALREADY INDICATED BY RADAR.
THE ONSHORE WINDS WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A COASTAL INLAND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE SPREAD. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW
EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUING TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

ADDED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND TO JUST WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 INDIAN RIVER COUNTY NORTH TO COVER WIND CONVERGENCE
SHOWERS COMING ASHORE AND MAKING TO THE INTERSTATE OR JUST BEYOND
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

UPDATED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SKIES TO COVER THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING OVER THE STATE.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSIONS

WED-THU...WETTER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR MID WEEK AS THE FOCUS SHIFTS
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF ALONG THE TROUGH THAT LIFTS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. THOUGH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH AND WEST
FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
PWATS AREAWIDE. IN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENTS THE TREND WILL BE
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. TRAINING COASTAL BANDS
ARE ALSO FAVORED IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND THOUGH EXACT PLACEMENT
CAN NOT BE DETERMINED IN ADVANCE...IF ONE SETS UP A PERIOD OF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

BREEZY COASTAL CONDITIONS DURING WED DECREASING SOMEWHAT THU AS FLOW
VEERS SOUTHERLY. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS
WILL COMPETE WITH WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DETERMINE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND MID 80S AT THE COAST.
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRI-WEEKEND...GULF LOW FEATURE IS SHOWN BY GFS/ECMWF WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT AS IT IS CAPPED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RESULTING PATTERN OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND
SCT TO PERHAPS NMRS POPS WILL BE A SCENARIO LOCALLY IN THIS
REGIME...HOWEVER QUESTIONABLE STEERING LEVEL WIND DIRECTION FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP CONCENTRATION OVER ECFL WILL PRECLUDE MENTION OF
NMRS POP COVERAGE AREAWIDE ATTM. IT IS ALSO UNKNOWN THIS EARLY ON
DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF GULF FEATURE. A LOOSE/BROADER GENERAL
CIRCULATION WL FAVOR BETTER PRECIP CHCS LOCALLY.

EXTENDED...FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN. BANDED MOISTURE IN
LEE OF ANY DEPARTING GULF SYSTEM MAY OR MAY NOT BE INVOF ECFL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENTLY CARRYING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO POP
WHICH IS ADMITTEDLY AGGRESSIVE FOR A DAY 6-7 FORECAST...HOWEVER
CANNOT COMPLETELY IGNORE PERIOD FCSTS OF OPERATIONAL GLOBAL GUID
WITH REGIONALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN CLOUD
BANDS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY ACTIVITY. BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CROSS WIND PROBLEMS AT COASTAL
FIELDS DUE TO  AN EAST WIND AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 RECORDING EAST WINDS 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND 4 TO
5 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS JUST OFF THE BEACHES WERE RECORD
3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS. THE LAKE WORTH BUOY NEAR WEST PALM BEACH WAS
RECORDING EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH VALIDATES THE
STRONGER WINDS FORECAST FOR THE MARINE ZONES BETWEEN SEBASTIAN AND
JUPITER INLETS. WINDS TO INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TIGHTENING.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO
THIS EVENING AS TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SPEEDS HAVE ALREADY
PICKED UP TO 15-20KTS OVER THE TREASURE COAST WATERS AND AT BUOY
41009 THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD AS A RESULT BECOMING 4-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-6
FEET SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS BY
TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND
REGARDING THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH OR WEAK LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WILL VEER SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. WINDS SPEEDS 15-20KTS EARLY THURSDAY BECOMING 10-15KTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY
FROM THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TO 3-5FT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....CRISTALDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-201000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1015 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 6 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THESE CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH LESS THAN FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. DEEPER
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD AND OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE
TYPICAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER IN
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT.

CRISTALDI