Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Memphis, TN

369 
WWUS54 KMEG 022051
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
251 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

MSC093-022101-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-120302T2115Z/
MARSHALL MS-
251 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

AT 251 PM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE 
AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3539 8892 3513 8874 3493 8931 3516 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 245DEG 46KT 3505 8923

$$

MSC009-TNC047-069-109-022115-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-120302T2115Z/
BENTON MS-FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-MCNAIRY TN-
251 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CST
FOR WEST CENTRAL MCNAIRY...HARDEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND
NORTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 251 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LA
GRANGE...OR 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOLIVAR...
GRAND JUNCTION...HICKORY VALLEY...HORNSBY...LA GRANGE...SAULSBURY...
TOONE...WILLISTON...PATTERSONVILLE...FORTY FIVE...SHANDY...
MIDDLEBURG...LISBON AND ROGERS SPRINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8892 3513 8874 3493 8931 3516 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 245DEG 46KT 3505 8923

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
221 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...

.NEAR TERM...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS NOW UNDERWAY WITH NUMEROUS
SUPERCELLS SPROUTING UP EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE CELLS
ARE FIRING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...PERHAPS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 70 MPH...AND SOME TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT IS TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT BY HIGH LCL/S AND VEERING SURFACE WINDS. NONETHELESS...
THE RISK IS STILL THERE GIVEN THE INTENSE WIND FIELDS. THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE DRY LINE SURGES EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY
EVENING. WILL CANCEL THE TORNADO WATCH AS THE DRY LINE PROGRESSES
EASTWARD.

SPEAKING OF THE DRY LINE...VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PLUMMETING
HUMIDITY HAVE LED TO A HIGH FIRE DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THESE AREAS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL BRING
LESS FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS COLDER AIR PUSHES IN
BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

WINDS HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE DAY. DON/T FEEL A NEED TO
UPGRADE NOW SINCE WINDS APPEARED TO HAVE LEVELED OFF BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE DRY LINE.

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE DOWN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH COULD BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO
LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

THE HIGH WILL BUILD EAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND PARK THERE FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WITH PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY WINDS...BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK. DESPITE THIS
FLOW...925 MB TEMPS AREN/T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO AM A BIT
RESERVED FROM BUMPING TEMPS UP TOO HIGH. SHOULD BE A VERY NICE
PERIOD THOUGH WITH HIGHS NEAR 70.

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TIMING ISSUES WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING MID
TO LATE WEEK. ECMWF IS SLOWER AND IS GENERALLY PREFERRED GIVEN THE
PATTERN. RAISED POPS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

FEW CHANGES FROM THE 15Z TAF UPDATE. PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS
PREFRONTAL WINDS AND LOCATION OF TSRA INITIATION AND SUBSEQUENT
EVOLUTION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL AR.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO 35KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH... WITH A 41KT GUST NOTED AT 4M9... CORNING
AR. NAM MODEL SUGGESTS FL020 WIND SPEED MAXIMUM WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 21Z... AND HAVE REFLECTED A GRADUAL DECREASE
IN GUSTS FOR THE TAFS...THOUGH STILL NEAR 30KTS.

STILL APPEARS TSRA INITIATION WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE MS RIVER...
QUICKLY TAKING THE FORM OF BROKEN TO SOLID LINE EAST OF MEM. TUP
AND MKL APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  43  56  39  60 /  10   0   0   0
MKL  35  55  32  55 /  10   0   0  10
JBR  36  54  35  58 /  10   0   0  10
TUP  42  60  35  59 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-031130-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
137 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST OF A
LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS INCLUDE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK OF OF TORNADOES WILL BE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE LINE.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR STRONG WEST GRADIENT
WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING TO 50 MPH.

A DRY LINE WILL PUSH TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAPIDLY DROPPING HUMIDITIES BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL BRING HIGH FIRE
DANGER ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-021600-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
934 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS GENERALLY EAST
OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDSOUTH...

A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TODAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE
MIDSOUTH...MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. AS TEMPERATURES
WARM DURING THE DAY ALL INGREDIENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM UNION CITY
TENNESSEE TO IUKA MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 1 PM AND 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE TOWARD
SUNSET BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND ALABAMA.

PLEASE BE SURE THAT YOUR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS ARE IN PLACE
FOR BOTH YOUR RESIDENCE AND BUSINESS. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE SURE
THAT THEY HAVE ACCESS TO A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SUCH AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLET.