Red Flag Warning 45, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

654 
WWUS84 KMAF 251835
RFWMAF

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
135 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TIL THIS EVENING FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FOR 20 FT WINDS 
OF 20 MPH OR GREATER... MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT...AND VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER...

.ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POOR RECOVERY IN THE GUADALUPE 
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS HAS QUICKLY SENT RH/S
FALLING TO NEAR 10 PCT. ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 MPH AND A FEW LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20
MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH AND VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER.

NMZ114-115-TXZ258-260300-
/O.CON.KMAF.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-120526T0300Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ-
SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1235 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND 
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

* WIND... SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...5 TO 10 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT START WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY. 
  OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

AVOID THE USE OF OPEN FLAMES OR ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY GENERATE
SPARKS. ACCIDENTAL IGNITIONS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW
QUICKLY INTO DANGEROUS WIND- DRIVEN WILDFIRES.

&&

$$


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MAF (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...

WV IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER SW
OR...AND BEGINNING TO DIG SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.  CLOSER TO
HOME...A QUIET NIGHT IN SE NM/WEST TEXAS UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE FA...WHICH
HAS BACKED WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES TO SE...ALLOWING GULF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOPING A WEAK DRYLINE RUNNING
THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPS IN
THE SE ZONES TODAY...W/THE NAM EXTENDING THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SW THRU THE DAVIS MTNS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS NW ZONES AGAIN TODAY.  SEE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION BELOW.  MODEL PERFORMANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS SUGGEST MOS
IS TOO WARM ON THE HIGHS...AND TOO COOL ON THE LOWS...LOWBALLING
MOISTURE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND H85 TEMP FIELDS SUGGEST USING A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

DRYLINE WILL BEGIN MIXING EAST AFTER SUNRISE...ENDING UP OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES BY 18Z.  MODELS THEN BRING SHORTWAVE ENERGY UP FROM
CHIHUAHUA...FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
ALONG THE DRYLINE.  ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY ERN ZONES W/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE.  MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING A SFC TROUGH OUT WEST INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINTAINING
RETURN FLOW AND SURGING GULF MOISTURE ALL THE WAY PAST THE WRN
MTNS.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST AND...LACKING A DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPS SHOULD END UP CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
THRU THE WEEKEND...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.  FRONT IS FCST TO
HANG UP SW-NE MONDAY...WARRANTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
MEXICO...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THRU MIDWEEK.  WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA THURSDAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STAYING AOA GFS MOS NUMBERS...W/A NOD TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF.  HAVE
KEPT DRY GRIDS BEYOND MONDAY.  ISOLATED CHANCES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
UNTIL THE RIDGE ASSERTS ITSELF LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT NOTHING VERY
DEFINITIVE IN THE MODELS STANDS OUT ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL CAUSE
SURFACE WINDS TO BACK FROM A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS AND LOWER WIND SPEEDS
TODAY WILL LIMIT THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA TO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. FORTUNATELY LOWER WIND
SPEEDS WILL REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS IN THE MOIST
AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE EASTERN PEMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS
PECOS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                101  75  93  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  74  93  71  /  20  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  68  93  65  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  94  74  88  74  /  10  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           99  73  96  70  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  68  84  71  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   97  71  89  67  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   91  61  84  59  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    97  74  92  73  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                 101  77  97  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75  95  74  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

10/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1020 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-260330-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1020 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012 /920 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL AGAIN PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FRIDAY FOR
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND