Wind Advisory 17, NWS Lubbock, TX

582 
WWUS74 KLUB 130443
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

TXZ021-022-027-028-131400-
/O.CON.KLUB.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-120913T1400Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-BAILEY-LAMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* TIMING AND WINDS...NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 25
  AND 35 MPH BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY
  GUST TO 45 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY MID MORNING
  ON THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH WILL CAUSE DIFFICULTY 
  PRIMARILY FOR MOTORISTS OF HIGH PROFILE OR LIGHTWEIGHT 
  VEHICLES. LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS SHOULD BE SECURED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

&&

$$

686 
WWUS74 KLUB 130804
NPWLUB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
304 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012


TXZ021-022-027-028-130915-
/O.CAN.KLUB.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-120913T1400Z/
PARMER-CASTRO-BAILEY-LAMB-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRIONA...BOVINA...DIMMITT...HART...
MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON
304 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
342 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

.SHORT TERM...
A MUCH-DESERVED WET PATTERN IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICAL LIFT
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED THE COLD FRONT
HAD RECENTLY STALLED JUST NW OF AMARILLO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
FARTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE TX-NM STATE LINE. THE LATTER FEATURE HAS
BENEFITTED FROM STRONG INSOLATION IN THE WAKE OF MORNING ELEVATED
SHOWERS ALONG WITH INCREASED CONVERGENCE AS WINDS TO ITS EAST HAVE
BACKED SELY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE GRAND CANYON. LARGELY MINIMAL CAPE...WEAK SHEAR AND LITTLE CINH
SUGGEST CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MAINLY ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND SWRN PANHANDLE
BEFORE TENDING TO DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE RESUMED
ITS SOUTHERLY MARCH BY THIS TIME AND COULD EASILY SUSTAIN PRECIP
PRIMARILY THROUGHOUT THE NWRN CWA.

BY MIDNIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA AT WHICH TIME ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT
SHOULD BEGIN PHASING WITH GREATER LIFT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND SLOWS. WHAT GRABS
OUR ATTENTION THE MOST HOWEVER IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING PRECIP
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. INFLUX OF RICHER PWATS APPEARS TO SPIKE LATE
TONIGHT WITHIN A MOIST LAYER CENTERED AROUND 310K. SWLY FLOW ALONG
THIS ISOSURFACE WILL BEGIN PARALLELING THE NE-SW ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME REPEATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WITH CONS BEING FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...THIS
PATTERN IS EASILY SUPPORTIVE OF A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FAVORED 850-700MB FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH AND
THE SATURATED LAYERS SHALLOW OUT TO THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET.

WIND-WISE...A BARRIER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO UNFOLD TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLE AND ERN NEW MEXICO BEFORE SPREADING INTO
OUR FAR NWRN COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY RARELY FAVORS
ADVISORY WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS ARE
HITTING A CORRIDOR OF STRONG WINDS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NORTHWEST
OF LUBBOCK COINCIDENT WITH THE SHARPEST PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
PRESSURE RISES. ALTHOUGH PRECIP MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE MIXING NEAR THE
SURFACE AT TIMES...FEELING IS THAT THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION
COULD EASILY OVERCOME THIS...HENCE THE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR NWRN
FOUR COUNTIES.

LASTLY...TEMP RECOVERIES WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO MAKE ANY HEADWAY
TOMORROW UNDER VERY LOW STRATUS DECKS...BREEZY NELY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF RAIN. THE RECORD COOL HIGH TEMP TOMORROW AT LBB WILL NOT
BE THREATENED...BUT TEMPS MAY LARGELY STAY IN THE UPPER 50S AFTER
DAYBREAK BEHIND THE COLDEST PUSH OF AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WAS EARLY ON AS NWP HAS SLOWED THE
PROJECTED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EJECTING EAST SUNDAY. DRIER MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL AIR IS STILL PROGGED TO ADVECT UNDER THE TROUGH LATER
THURSDAY AS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WANES. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...AND WITH WEAK UPPER SUPPORT...THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FORECAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. THUS...HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY
AND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. ALSO HAVE BOOSTED SHOWER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES INTO SATURDAY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...AND
HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS DOWNWARD...MOSTLY INTO THE 60S FRIDAY
AND LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ON
SUNDAY...WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL MID-SEPTEMBER LEVELS.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN PIVOT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO
THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS FRONT...COUPLED
WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE...MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A TOUCH...INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW AS A SFC TROUGH REDEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES UNDER DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  56  46  65  45 / 100  70  20  10  10
TULIA         55  58  48  60  49 / 100  80  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     55  59  48  62  50 / 100  90  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     55  59  50  65  50 / 100 100  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       56  60  50  65  50 / 100 100  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   57  63  50  65  52 /  80 100  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    57  61  51  65  51 /  90 100  40  30  20
CHILDRESS     59  67  52  68  52 /  90  90  50  30  20
SPUR          61  66  53  67  52 /  80 100  50  30  20
ASPERMONT     65  70  55  71  54 /  70 100  50  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027-028.

&&

93/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

TXZ021>044-132045-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
341 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NON PRECIPITATION

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY FOR
LAMB...BAILEY...CASTRO AND PARMER COUNTIES.

ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS WILL DIMINISH
BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY.