Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
459 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
BAJA SPUR CHANNELS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATER
IN THE DAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN ZONES WITH
GENERAL DOWNWARD FORCING AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS PROMOTING DEEP
MIXING AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. SURFACE DRY-LINE
CURRENTLY BACKED INTO WESTERN COUNTIES WILL VEER OUT TO THE EAST
LATER THIS MORNING...ENDING UP OVER EASTERN PART OF OUR ROLLING
PLAINS COUNTIES LATER TODAY. PATCH OF EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BREAK UP VICINITY CENTRAL AND/OR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BY
MID-MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS INDICATE A WEAK CAP WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MIXED LAYER
CAPE AND BULK SHEAR NUMBERS BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LATE IN
THE DAY AGAIN. WE WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS LOW MENTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EXTEND IT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO COVER A BIT MORE OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS FOR THE EVENING. MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS DO NOT BREAK
OUT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AREA LATER TODAY...BUT HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE EXISTS SHOULD ONE OR TWO EMERGE. TODAY WILL BE VERY WARM
AGAIN AND LATEST TRENDS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM TUESDAY
OBSERVED HIGHS...WHERE LEAN WAS GIVEN. TONIGHT SHOULD SETTLE BACK
INTO MODERATE BREEZES WITH RETREATING DRY-LINE ONCE AGAIN. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
TROUGH ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE ROOT OF MOST
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BEING
PRESENTED ON ITS EJECTION LATER THIS WEEK.  THE SREF/CMC/ECM
SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE MOST CONSISTENT AND WILL TREND THE MID TERM
ALONG THOSE LINES WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE STORM TRACK REMAINING NORTH OF
THE REGION. LOW THEN DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTH WEST ALTHOUGH MORE
VARIABILITY EXISTS TODAY THAN IN YESTERDAY/S RUNS BUT ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN THE MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

AT THE SURFACE...THE DRYLINE WILL SLOSH DAILY MAKING ITS WAY AT
LEAST AS FAR EAST WAS THE ROLLING PLAINS EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW END POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT MAINTAIN SILENT POPS SATURDAY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL OF THE
DRYLINE TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWFA. GIVEN THE THERMAL PROFILES AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY...ANY STORM WHICH DOES MANAGE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST PRONOUNCED THREAT. COLD
FRONT THEN MANAGES TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
POST-FRONTAL ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION INDICATED FROM
MONDAY ONWARD. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN RECENT
DAYS AND THUS WILL ELECT TO INTRODUCE MENTIONABLE POPS IN THAT
TIMEFRAME. SUSPICION IS THAT THE GFS IS OVERESTIMATING THE
DURATION OF THE WINDOW FOR RAINFALL GIVEN PAST EXPERIENCES IN THIS
PATTERN. ALSO...THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE GFS TO BE TOO RAPID
WITH THE PROGRESSION OF UL FEATURES AND WE COULD SEE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BE DELAYED A DAY OR TWO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODERATE DRY SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP MOST AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO LINE WHERE
DEEP DRY ADIABATIC MIXING WILL DEVELOP ON NOSE OF INCREASING WIND
CORE ALOFT. THIS AREA HAS BENEFITED LEAST FROM RECENT SHOWERS AND
EARLIER GREENING...THUS HAS GREATEST FIRE RISK. WE HAVE ADDED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR OUR WESTERN FOUR COUNTY ROW FROM 1300 TO 2000. WE
WILL ADD A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE WINDS OVERALL SHOULD BE A BIT LESS AND
ALSO WHERE POCKETS OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN AND PREVIOUS GREENING STILL
SHOULD COUNTER THE MORE EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING DURING THE EVENING. RMCQUEEN

ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY EXIST EACH AFTERNOON THU-SUN
WEST OF THE DRYLINE AS VERY DRY AIR MIXES TOWARD THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN MORE ELEVATED TO
LOW-END RED FLAG AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE GREEN-UP WITH
VIGOR. 26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        91  54  92  54  92 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         93  59  94  58  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  60  95  60  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  57  94  61  94 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  62  95  63  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  60  93  61  94 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    96  58  95  63  95 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     99  65  97  66  95 /  10  10  20  20  20
SPUR          95  66  91  65  95 /  10  10  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  69  95  68  91 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-027-033-039.

&&

05/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
448 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

TXZ021>044-031000-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
448 AM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW AGAIN LATER TODAY OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT...HOWEVER...THEY
WOULD HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE OR POSSIBLY LARGER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN THREATS.

FIRE WEATHER
VERY WARM...DRY...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE DANGER WILL BE MOST EXTREME NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM MIDDAY UNTIL EARLY
EVENING. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN PLACE ELSEWHERE ON THE
CAPROCK LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED DRYLINE STORMS WILL PRESENT A CONDITIONAL THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.