Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS St. Louis, MO

788 
WWUS53 KLSX 161921
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
221 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

MOC073-151-161930-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-120816T1930Z/
GASCONADE MO-OSAGE MO-
221 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OSAGE AND GASCONADE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLAND...AND
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWENSVILLE...ROSEBUD...DRAKE AND CANAAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST
LOUIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 9137 3827 9136 3829 9173 3845 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 273DEG 19KT 3836 9160

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

GOSSELIN

602 
WWUS53 KLSX 161930
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
230 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

MOC073-151-161940-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-120816T1930Z/
GASCONADE MO-OSAGE MO-
230 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
GASCONADE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3849 9137 3827 9136 3829 9173 3845 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 273DEG 19KT 3836 9154

$$

GOSSELIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
201 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012
(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A CDFNT. INSTABILITY WILL
PARTIALLY COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAK SHEAR AND LIMITED DYNAMICS TO
SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS /SOME SEVERE/ THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS /DUE TO THE STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/ AND HAIL. PCPN WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.

KANOFSKY/BRITT

&&

.LONG TERM...
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012
(TOMORROW THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)

CDFNT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AT 12Z FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NW. A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION BEHIND THE CDFNT WITH THE BDRY STALLING IN NRN AR NEAR THE
MO/AR BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BY 12Z SAT...AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ON FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH
EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL. IN
CONTRAST TO THE ENTIRE MONTH OF JULY...RECORD-BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT KUIN EARLY SAT MORNING WHERE THE RECORD
LOW FOR AUG 18TH IS 52 DEGREES WHICH WAS SET IN 1943.

A VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY SAT
AFTN/EVE. MODELS DEPICT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF LESS THAN
5 MB ON THE 700 MB SFC CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF VERTICAL MOTION.
THE RELATIVELY HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT AND BELOW
900MB ALONG WITH THE LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AT
700/600/500 MB SUGGEST THAT THIS VORT MAX WILL PRODUCE A MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK THAT SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SAT AFN AND OVERNIGHT.
ATTM PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. KEPT SAT NIGHT
LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO ANTICIPATED
CLOUD COVER.

CWA REMAINS BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUE THEN MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ONE OF THE CHALLENGES WITH NW
FLOW PATTNS IS THAT SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW CAN
PRODUCE UNEXPECTED AREAS OF PCPN. THESE SHORTWAVES ARE OFTEN HANDLED
POORLY BY THE MODELS AND CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FCST UNTIL THEY BECOME
APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A POTENTIAL
PCPN OPPORTUNITY ON MON NIGHT/TUE WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
HOWEVER THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE OVER THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE /AND ITS EFFECT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTN/ AFTER 12Z TUE. FOR
THIS REASON I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PCPN CHCS ATTM AND KEPT MOST OF
THE EXTENDED DRY. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THERE MAY BE A
WARMING TREND BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS SHIFTS
EWD.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR A KUIN-KMBY-KDMO LINE. THE WIND IS
HAS JUST SHIFTED BEHIND FROPA AT KUIN...AND SHOULD ALSO SHIFT
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AT KCOU.
THIS SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR AROUND 21Z AT THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF
SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE...AND HAVE
EXPANDED THE TIMING OF THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 18-21Z FOR -TSRA. NEW
CELL HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST OF KSTL IN THE LAST FEW
MINUTES. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH TWO
EXCEPTIONS. ONE BEING MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVER
CORES OF RAIN...THE SECOND WITH LOWER CEILINGS MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
IOWA. STILL MAY BE SOME ISOLATED -SHRA LASTING INTO THE
EVENING...SO HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT THE ST. LOUIS METRO TAF
SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE LAST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...NEW CELL HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL...SO HAVE STARTED THE
TEMPO GROUP FOR -TSRA AT 18Z AND WILL CONTINUE IT UNTIL 21Z WHEN I
STILL EXPECT FROPA. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CAT WITH THE TEMPO GROUP.
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT -SHRA BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
EARLY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP VCSH FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

BRITT

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
414 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-171200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
414 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

TILLY