Gale Watch 21, NWS Chicago, IL

600 
WHUS73 KLOT 180224
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
924 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

LMZ740>745-181030-
/O.CAN.KLOT.GL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-120918T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KLOT.SC.Y.0086.120918T0224Z-120919T0900Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
924 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...6 TO 9 FT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. 8 TO 
  12 FT FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 13 FT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AND
  UP TO 18 FT FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING
SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ080-669-671-673-675-777-779-870-872-874-876-878-181030-
/O.CAN.KLOT.GL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-120918T0300Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.A.0021.120919T1800Z-120920T0600Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
924 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

* WINDS...SOUTH GALES TO 35 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...7 TO 10 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 15 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

LMZ261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-181030-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.A.0021.120919T1800Z-120920T0600Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
924 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...8 TO 12 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 18 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

JEE

013 
WHUS73 KLOT 180801
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

LMZ740>745-181615-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-120919T0900Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...6 TO 9 FT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE. 10 TO
  14 FT FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 14 FT FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE AND UP
  TO 20 FT FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING
SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181615-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.A.0021.120919T1800Z-120920T0600Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
301 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...10 TO 14 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 20 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

BMD

630 
WHUS73 KLOT 181400
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
900 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

LMZ740>745-182200-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-120919T0900Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
900 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...6 TO 9 FT ILLINOIS NEARSHORE...8 TO 12 FT
  INDIANA NEARSHORE.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 13 FT ILLINOIS NEARSHORE...UP TO 18 FT
  INDIANA NEARSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING
SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-182200-
/O.CON.KLOT.GL.A.0021.120919T1800Z-120920T0600Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
900 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...10 TO 14 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 20 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF GALE FORCE WINDS OF 34 TO
47 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC TIMING
AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN. IT IS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO CONSIDER
ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

023 
WHUS73 KLOT 181703
MWWLOT

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

LMZ740>745-190115-
/O.CON.KLOT.SC.Y.0086.000000T0000Z-120919T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.GL.W.0036.120919T1700Z-120920T0500Z/
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...6 TO 9 FT ILLINOIS NEARSHORE...8 TO 12 FT
  INDIANA NEARSHORE.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 13 FT ILLINOIS NEARSHORE...UP TO 18 FT
  INDIANA NEARSHORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
WAVES GREATER THAN 4 FT WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING
SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO 35 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...4 TO 6 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 9 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED
THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR
TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-190115-
/O.UPG.KLOT.GL.A.0021.120919T1800Z-120920T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.GL.W.0036.120919T1700Z-120920T0500Z/
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
1203 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GALE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 40 KT.

* SIGNIFICANT WAVES...10 TO 14 FT.

* OCCASIONAL WAVES...UP TO 20 FT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
300 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
150 PM CDT

MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY LOW END
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA. BASED ON 18Z SURFACE OBS...THE FRONT IS ANALYZED TO BE
STRETCHED FROM OTTUMWA IOWA NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF SHEBOYGAN WI.
MOISTURE RETURN OF THE FRONT HAS RESULTED IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S...HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE SB CAPE AROUND
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER AT 700 MB NOTED ON
RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD/MDW IS SERVING AS CAP ON
VIGOROUS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EXTREME EASTERN IOWA IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GOOD CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN
UNCAPPED MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. HERE A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED...WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
BEGINNING TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE STRONGER CORES. WOULD EXPECT
SHRA AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE TIED TO THE CONVERGENCE
AXIS IMMEDIATELY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 700 MB INVERSION OVER
THE EASTERN CWA. INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO 35-40 KT AS TROUGH
PUSHES IN/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8C/KM/AND FRZ LEVELS
12KFT AND FALLING WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER CORES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS DUE TO STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT AND FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS...EXPECT
SHRA/TSRA IN THE ROCKFORD AREA OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND 4PM-
5PM IN THE WESTERN CHICAGO METRO...WITH 5PM OR LATER CLOSER TO THE
CITY AND POINTS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

RC

&&

.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD:
* THUNDER TRENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
* LAKE EFFECT SHRA/POSSIBLE TSRA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
* CHILLY HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY.
* FROST PERHAPS EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

QUITE A COMPLEX AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS UNFOLDING TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN HUDSON BAY WHICH HAS DEVELOPED INTO A
MASSIVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MORNING RAOB ANALYSIS SHOWED 130 M HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH SUGGESTING IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A
LARGE RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER TROUGH IS
SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES
WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT SPREADING MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWESTERN LAKE HURON IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LOW WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND APPROACHING THE NW CWA.

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT NOW REACHING THE AREA A NARROW
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AND ARRIVING IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST CWA AT 1940Z. REFER TO LATEST MESO DISCUSSION FOR
SPECIFICS BUT MODEST SEVERE THREAT DOES EXIST WITH SOME MIXED LAYER
CAPE AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AT THIS POINT...TS LOOKS TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE EITHER
EXITING TO THE EAST OR WEAKENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWEST
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 30
OR EVEN 35 MPH OVER LAND IN SPOTS FOR A SHORT PERIOD BEFORE EASING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
QUICKLY ARRIVE AS H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 2C BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.

LAKE EFFECT...H85 TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 0 TO 2 C RANGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS RESULTS IN
LAKE TO H85 DELTA T VALUES OF 18 TO 20 C FROM LATE TONIGHT ONWARD.
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KFT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH LAKE INDUCED CAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ALL
OF THIS SUPPORTS LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND PROBABLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR...MOSTLY IN TERMS OF
ORGANIZATION...IS SOME SHEAR THAT IS PRESENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AS WINDS ABOVE H8 REMAIN MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY KEEP TALLER
CONVECTIVE TOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. THE FETCH CONTINUES TO LOOK
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WHICH SUPPORTS THE BEST CHANCE FROM NORTHEASTERN
PORTER COUNTY WITH LOWER CHANCES FROM GARY SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTER COUNTY BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY SET
OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE LAKE AND FOCUS THINGS JUST WEST TO WHERE THE
BEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INVERSION
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL TUESDAY EVENING AS WARMER AIR ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
IN ALOFT...THOUGH SOME MINOR PRECIP MAY REMAIN.

OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUING BEHIND IT. CAN
SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA NOT BEING AFFECTED BY LAKE EFFECT WITH
CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU EXPECTED BUT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY
LIMIT SYNOPTIC PRECIP. TEMPS ARE TRICKY BUT WILL BE COOL. AREAS
UNDER LAKE EFFECT PRECIP MAY BE HELD IN THE MID 50S IF PRECIP
PERSISTS BUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA BEING ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF
LAKE ACTIVITY HIGHS MAY BE A BIT WARMER. ELSEWHERE...HIGHS LOOK TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES AND MOST GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO
WARM. WESTERN AREAS MAY END UP SEEING DECENT SUNSHINE LOW 60S MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH A DECENT SUN ANGLE STILL PRESENT. BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND UP THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OF THE
HIGH WILL CREST THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BE TO THE EAST BY
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DROP OFF. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN TOO STRONG WITH WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN FOR AREAS IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEST OF A
DEPARTING HIGH SO THE LIGHT WINDS THEY ARE SHOWING MAY ACTUALLY END
UP BEING CALM. THAT SAID...ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH WEAK WEAK UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THIS WAA GETS
UNDERWAY. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SLIGHT WARMING WILL OCCUR ALOFT BY
DAYBREAK BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LATE TO HAVE ANY MEANINGFUL NEGATIVE
INFLUENCE ON COOLING. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...AWAY FROM THE METRO AREAS...TO HAVE
A FAIR AMOUNT OF FROST AND EVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE WITH
LOWS POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  GUIDANCE GENERALLY CONTINUES WITH COLDEST LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S WHICH SEEMS AT LEAST A LITTLE TOO WARM GIVEN SOME THE
WIND BEING FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT THIS WOULD BE A POTENTIALLY
RECORD BREAKING SITUATION. GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN TERMS OF NEEDING PARAMETERS PERFECTLY ALIGNED TO RESULT IN
TEMPS BELOW 32 CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH. HOWEVER...FEEL
COMFORTABLE LOWERING MINS A FEW DEGREES AND CARRYING FROST MENTION
ACROSS RURAL AREAS. WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FREEZE HOWEVER.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE. H85 TEMPS REBOUND INTO +8 TO +10 C AND
WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AND A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE HIGHS WILL
LIKELY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 70S. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SOME TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN H85 TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
SO HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF WEDNESDAY.

MDB

LONG TERM THU NIGHT THRU MON

TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND...THEN A RAPID WARM UP FOR MONDAY.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LARGE UPPER LOW...CENTERED OVER ONTARIO...THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR.
GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE ALONG WITH COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
FLOW...COULD RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT INSTABILITY SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME PROBABILITIES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
STILL AROUND THE KS/MO BORDER AT 12Z SUN...MAY STILL HAVE ENOUGH
WIND/MIXING TO PREVENT FROST OR FREEZING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING SOME 10 TO 12C
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. SHOULD BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL SURFACE TEMPS
IN THE 70S MONDAY.

LAKE EFFECT...VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR FRIDAY. 850
MB TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING FOR LAKE EFFECT TO
START SETTING UP. SURFACE AND 925 MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE
LAKE EFFECT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN MI AND NORTH CENTRAL IN. WILL HAVE
SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF PORTER COUNTY
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

ALLSOPP

&&

.CLIMATE...
1149 AM CDT

***RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING***

RECORD LOWS FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH:
CHICAGO....40 IN 1991.
ROCKFORD...34 IN 1929.

RC

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...

* PRECIP TIMING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE 21-24Z PERIOD.

* WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER 23 UTC WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
  DEVELOPING FOR A PERIOD INTO THIS EVENING.

* SCT SHRA CONTINUING AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING.

* POSSIBLE LOWER MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT
  BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

* GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

KJB

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO.
THESE INCLUDE...CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY...IT IS ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SECTION OF ILLINOIS. I
EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE KRFD AREA BETWEEN 2030 AND 2130
UTC. FARTHER EAST...THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ORD AROUND 23 UTC
WITH A FRONTAL TIMING SLIGHTLY AFTER 23 UTC AT MDW AND GYY. THERE
WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WHICH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TERMINALS. IT APPEARS THAT A
MID LEVEL INVERSION AROUND 700 MB MAY KEEP THE MAIN THREAT FOR
THUNDER TIED CLOSELY TO THE STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT..BUT THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD END QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING.
THE NEXT CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 25 KT FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING AS RAPID PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GUSTS MAY ABATE SOME LATER THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTH NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

LOW CIGS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AND ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THE CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.

KJB

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...

* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
  THIS AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF PRECIP/TSRA.

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA ENDING ONCE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS FORECAST AFT 00Z.

KJB

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. CHC SHRA LATE W/PATCHY MVFR CIGS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CHC SHRA W/PATCHY MVFR CIGS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. SLT CHC SHRA EARLY.

BEACHLER

&&

.MARINE...

236 PM...VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEVERAL FORECAST CONCERNS AND CHALLENGES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND AS IT DOES...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN RATHER QUICKLY AND COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT...HOISTED A GALE WARNING WITH THE 9AM GLF THIS
MORNING WITH THE THINKING THAT LOW END GALES WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. STILL THINK THIS IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW BETWEEN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THIS EVENING...BUT
A MUCH STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OVER OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY
MOVE NORTH...ABSORBING THE FIRST LOW. AS THIS LOW LIFTS NORTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH 30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. COULD BE A FEW
GALE GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN TURN WESTERLY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS
THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN PIVOT BACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES AND ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THE LAKE SHOW LITTLE IF ANY
MARINE LAYER WITH WIND SPEEDS 35-45 KTS IN THE LOW LEVELS. IT SHOULD
BE QUITE EASY TO REACH AT LEAST LOW END GALES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD AND HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS. IF TRENDS CONTINUE...
WIND SPEEDS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP SOME.

AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO ON THURSDAY...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LAKE BUT SPEEDS ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE GRADIENT...THOUGH WINDS LIKELY
TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE LAKE. MODELS THEN
DEVELOP A NEW SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND LIFT IT
NORTH ACROSS THE LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS IT
DEEPENS. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND HAVE NOT INTRODUCED GALES INTO THE FORECAST YET...BUT GALES ARE
POSSIBLE IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH THIS LOW DEEPENING OVER THE LAKES
REGION. CMS

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...ILZ006-ILZ014...7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

IN...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...INZ001-INZ002...7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM
     WEDNESDAY.

LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ740-LMZ741-
     LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-
     LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.

     GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
     LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM
     THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-
     LMZ745...10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1101 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
181600-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
1101 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012 /1201 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

   THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL
   ILLINOIS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...AND MOVE ACROSS
   NORTHWESTERN INDIANA LATE THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

   A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
   THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
   THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA SHORES OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN LOW LYING RURAL AREAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-181600-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
1101 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS.

A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS.

HIGH WINDS AND WAVES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MID
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HIGH WINDS AND WAVES MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT ACROSS THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH WINDS MAY AGAIN POSE HAZARDS TO SMALL
CRAFT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-181600-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
1101 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

MDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
303 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0248 PM     TSTM WND GST     DURAND                  42.44N 89.33W
09/17/2012  M46 MPH          WINNEBAGO          IL   MESONET

&&

ACS