Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
936 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

.UPDATE...

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED
AND A VERY UNSTABLE SOUNDING WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. A PW OF
1.43 INCHES AND AN LI OF -9.6. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS BELOW 800 MB WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MIDDLE LEVELS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AT AROUND 6200 FEET AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012/

SYNOPSIS...

OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS MOVED WELL INTO THE GULF THIS
MORNING. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORT
MAX DRIED OUT THE AIRMASS CONSIDERABLY. WE ARE ONLY NOW STARTING
TO GET CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...AND THAT IS MAINLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA. CURRENTLY...NO RADAR ECHOES IN OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...WITH A FEW CELLS NEAR HATTIESBURG MOVING AWAY
FROM THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SURFACE
HIGH NEAR TAMPA AND SURFACE LOW NEAR LUBBOCK TEXAS.

SHORT TERM...

UNLESS RADAR CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES...WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR TONIGHT. THIS IS
RECOGNIZING THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION ALONG INTERSTATE 20
WORKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LAPSE RATES ARE STILL
FAIRLY STEEP...SO CANNOT ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN ACROSS TENNESSEE ON THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO ARKANSAS WITH A WEAK FRONT INTO CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SEVERE
WEATHER IS STILL DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY...WITH HAIL POTENTIAL A
LITTLE BETTER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAN TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS THHROUGH THURSDAY OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 35

LONG TERM...

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY ABOUT
TUESDAY. WILL CARRY SMALL POPS ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THAN WE WILL SEE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 35

AVIATION...

LATEST RADAR IMAGE SHOWS NO CONVECTION OVER THE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONVECTION WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT.
THEREFORE HAVE DECIDED TO PULL THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT ALL
TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG IS STILL A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT AS WELL AS MVFR
CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. 13/MH

MARINE...

OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SOMEWHAT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
WATERS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP TO THE NORTHEAST OF LOUISIANA FOR THE
WEEKEND...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE
DEPLOYED...NONE
ACTIVATION...NONE
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING ONGOING RIVER FLOODING
 	     MONITORING THUNDERSTORM THREAT

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  65  84  63  83 /  30  50  50  20
BTR  68  86  68  85 /  30  60  50  20
ASD  67  85  68  83 /  30  50  50  40
MSY  69  85  69  85 /  30  50  50  50
GPT  68  82  69  82 /  30  40  50  50
PQL  66  83  68  82 /  30  30  50  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
852 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-050200-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
852 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BUT ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE LOWER PEARL AND LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN COASTAL AREAS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LARGE HAIL.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

REFER TO THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR ONGOING RIVER
FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

CAB

MSZ068>071-040215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
817 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST AFFECTING AMITE
COUNTY...WILKINSON COUNTY...WALTHALL COUNTY...PIKE COUNTY...

AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB TO 44
MILES WEST OF LIBERTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
SUMMIT...GLOSTER...MCCOMB AIRPORT...SALEM...MAGNOLIA...CENTREVILLE
AND WOODVILLE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...PEA
TO DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH...WHICH COULD DOWN
TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ058-060-040215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
825 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTH AFFECTING ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
PARISH...ST. CHARLES PARISH...

AT 821 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF HAHNVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTH OF EDGARD...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
HAHNVILLE...NORCO...EDGARD...RESERVE...LAPLACE AND GARYVILLE

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ072-040315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA
PARISH...

AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF HAMMOND...OR ABOUT 2 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PONCHATOULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
PONCHATOULA...HAMMOND AND ROBERT

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SUB
SEVERE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.