Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS New Orleans, LA

218 
WGUS74 KLIX 101028
FFSLIX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
528 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

LAC103-105-101215-
/O.CON.KLIX.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-120610T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ST. TAMMANY LA-TANGIPAHOA LA-
528 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN TANGIPAHOA AND NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISHES...

AT 524 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
ROBERT...FOLSOM...COVINGTON...MADISONVILLE...MANDEVILLE AND ABITA 
SPRINGS

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLING OVER THE 
AREA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS 
LOCALIZED LOCATIONS. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3065 8994 3036 9000 3037 9011 3039 9021
      3030 9031 3029 9037 3069 9034

$$

10/ARM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
402 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS BECOMING VERY DIFFUSE ACROSS SE LA AND
COASTAL MS. AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER EXTREME SW NEBRASKA WITH A
DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO
AND INTO WEST TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA.

LOCALLY...TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN...WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM MORGAN CITY
TO BOGALUSA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT. CARRYING LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM AROUND THE AREA INDICATE PW VALUES NEAR OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME STORMS BEING VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER
HOUR COMMON THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE EVEN
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. THESE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES MAY LEAD TO NUISANCE FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER
IN LOW LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. THE AREAL FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE POPS ACROSS
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OR SLIGHTLY
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS DEEP RIDGING
BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW TYPICAL
DIURNALLY FORCED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS EVERY DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AS CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE AGAIN THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2SM AND DROP CEILINGS
TO AROUND 1500 FT.

&&

.MARINE...
STALLED FRONT ALONG THE COASTLINE IS ALLOWING DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION TO TRACK THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN TODAY.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
WATERS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND CAUTION HEADLINES AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...YELLOW.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RADAR SURVEILLANCE FOR CONVECTION AND FLOOD THREAT
             THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  86  71  90  73 /  60  30  20  20
BTR  87  74  93  76 /  60  20  20  10
ASD  86  73  89  75 /  80  40  40  20
MSY  87  76  90  77 /  80  40  40  10
GPT  86  76  88  77 /  80  50  50  20
PQL  86  75  88  74 /  80  50  50  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...SOUTHERN
     TANGIPAHOA...ST. CHARLES...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...UPPER
     TERREBONNE...AND WASHINGTON.

MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...AND PEARL RIVER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON
     TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO
     60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM.

&&

95/DM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
705 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-110015-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
705 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM AMITE TO DONALDSONVILLE...AS WELL AS
HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON AND PEARL RIVER COUNTIES IN
MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE...5 TO 7 FEET
OFFSHORE BY LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THE SOUNDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME FEWER IN NUMBER FOR MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME.

MARINE...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHANDELEUR AND BRETON SOUNDS THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS
THROUGH 1 PM SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...PLEASE PASS ON ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAZ060>064-100615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1126 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2012

...LINE OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST AFFECTING ST. CHARLES PARISH...UPPER JEFFERSON
PARISH...UPPER PLAQUEMINES PARISH...ORLEANS PARISH...UPPER ST.
BERNARD PARISH...

AT 1125 PM CDT A LINE OF SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING FROM THE NEW
ORLEANS METRO TO THE SOUTHWEST BACK TO THE GULF. THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND COULD BRING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TO THE
METRO AREA. IF THIS LINE MATERIALIZES THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA SO PLEASE CONTINUE
FOLLOW THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH OUR WEBSITE AND YOUR LOCAL
MEDIA.

REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.
THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

CAB

LAZ040-100945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AFFECTING ST.
TAMMANY PARISH...

AT 356 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COVINGTON...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
NORTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND...COVINGTON...ABITA SPRINGS...BUSH AND SUN

THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING
ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.

THESE STORMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER IN
A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

10/ARM