Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.AVIATION/UPDATE...
18 UTC TAFS AND PRIOR/1219 PM ZFP UPDATE. INCRSD UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AMID STRONG INSTABILITY PER RAP/SREF/MODIFIED
SNDGS..NOTED EARLIER RAP PROG BIASED NEGATIVELY/UNDERESTIMATING WRT
OBS MLCAPE. AT PRESENT POOL OF STRONG 3500-4500 J/KG MLCAPE LAID
ACRS NRN INDIANA INTO WRN CWA. DEEP LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
MODEST...WITH HIEST VALUES TO REMAIN WELL NORTH/NORTHEAST OF CWA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONGER NWRLY MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. STILL
MATURING COLD POOL MERGERS ASSOCD W/UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO PROVIDE
PRIMARY DMG WIND THREAT LATE AFTN/ERLY EVE ACRS SWRN HALF OF CWA.
INITIATION OF NRN IL CONVECTION COMMENCED RAPIDLY AROUND 1430 UTC
NEAR KSQI PER OUTFLOW/PSBL GRAVITY WAVE EMISSION FROM ERLIER KOTM
CONVECTIVE BEHEMOTH...AND ASSOCD MARKED INCRS SWRLY LLVL FLOW PER
KDVN VWP. TIMING CONVECTION WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN INTO IFR
MET RANGE WITH FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE...INTO KSBN 19-21 UTC AND
ABOUT AN HOUR THEREAFTER INTO KFWA WITH SUB-SEVERE GUSTS/SQUALLS
NOTED WITH INIT ISSNC...AND MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR POTN INCRS
TO GTE 50KTS GUSTS AS NEEDED. THEREAFTER VFR ANTICIPATED... SAVE FOR
PSBL SHALLOW RADIATIONAL BR POTNL NEAR DAYBREAK PER WETTED
GROUND/HIGH XOVER TEMPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...WITH OTHER CONCERN CENTERING ON THE ONGOING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG STALLED WEAK BOUNDARY. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MCS FROM LAST EVENING CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH RAPIDLY
WARMING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NRN MISSOURI. A SECONDARY SMALLER MCS
IN ADVANCE OF AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BUT ALSO IN A WEAKENING STATE. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING STRENGTH/POSITION OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
DECAYING SYSTEMS WITH INDIVIDUAL INITIALIZATIONS VASTLY DIFFERENT.
THIS CONTINUES TO LEND SOME LOW CONFIDENCE TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY. HOWEVER...BACKING MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD TEND TO ADVECT
THESE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS FROM SRN IOWA/NRN MISSOURI INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS/WEST CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR INTERACTION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
BEGIN TO CREEP NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS OF HIGHER LOW
LEVEL THETAE AIR SETTING UP FROM NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3500 J/KG.

STRONGER UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. CORRIDOR OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MORE
PRONOUNCED SHEAR PROFILE...BUT NAM PROGS STILL SUGGEST 30 TO 35
KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR ALONG THIS INSTABILITY AXIS. CONVECTIVE
MODE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
STRENGTH OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORT WAVES...AND WHETHER UPSCALE
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN MORE MARGINAL/WEAKER LOW LEVEL
SHEAR PROFILES. HIRES ARW HINTS AT POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR CLIPPING SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW. INSTABILITY
PROFILES ALONE WARRANT CONTINUED SEVERE MENTION IN HWO THIS
MORNING...AND GREATEST POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY SOUTH
OF THE ROUTE 30 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL UNCERTAINTY
REMAINING...WILL HOLD WITH ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. DID ADD LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING WITH MORE
POTENT NEBRASKA SHORT WAVE THIS MORNING POSSIBLY AIDING IN ANOTHER
AREA OF CONVECTION APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING CIN SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH THIS CHANCE
TOWARD THE OVERNIGHT.

WITH SLIGHT NORTHWARD CREEP OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TODAY...HIGHS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WITH FORECASTED UPPER 60S DEW POINTS...THIS WOULD PRODUCE NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH APPARENT TEMPS APPROACHING 100. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS/DEVELOPMENT ADDS FURTHER UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AND GIVEN MARGINAL NATURE OF CURRENT FORECASTED APPARENT
TEMPS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

ON MONDAY...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ALLOWING FOR BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION AND FURTHER SLIGHT
NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETAE AXIS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WILL KEEP LOW POPS GOING WITH POTENTIAL WEAK CAPPING
ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE MORE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAKENING SHEAR PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE.
MAY NEED TO CONSIDER HEAT HEADLINES ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM... /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD. UNTIL FULLY TAKING CONTROL BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT TRAVERSING NW TO SE THROUGH THE FLOW. EXACT DETAILS AND
TIMING OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OR MCV FOR LEFTOVER CONVECTION REMAIN
DIFFICULT TO SORT OUT...RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SLGT CHC POPS
FOR THE TIME BEING WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION FOR
THE AREA BEFORE FURNACE GETS TURNED BACK UP HIGHER AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK WELL THROUGH THE 90S AND POSSIBLY REACH 100 OR HIGHER
AGAIN BY THIS WEEKEND. HAVE WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALLBLEND TAKING INTO
ACCOUNT COOL BIAS (ALTHOUGH 00Z SETUP DIDN'T COME OUT OVERLY COLD).
HEAT RELATED HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION/UPDATE...MURPHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1241 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

INZ003-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ024-021645-
LA PORTE-STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-
ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-
BLACKFORD-JAY-VAN WERT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...KNOX...
NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...
ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...VAN WERT...
DELPHOS
1241 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012 /1141 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

INTENSE HEAT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ004>009-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-025-021645-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-BERRIEN-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...
DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...
HILLSDALE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...
NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...LIMA
1241 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...
THE GREATER CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXIST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LAPORTE TO FORT WAYNE INDIANA TO LIMA OHIO LINE.

PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

INTENSE HEAT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-021645-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1241 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGH WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON OF THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              40.75N  86.76W
07/01/2012  E0.88 INCH       WHITE              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND ESTIMATED 40 MPH WINDS.

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     KINGSBURY               41.53N  86.70W
07/01/2012  M45 MPH          LA PORTE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL AS WELL.

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
315 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE BREMS             41.33N  86.67W
07/01/2012  M53 MPH          STARKE             IN   AWOS

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WNW POTTAWATTOMIE PAR 41.74N  86.91W
07/01/2012  M71 MPH          LMZ046             IN   C-MAN STATION

&&

BENTLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W ROCHESTER           41.06N  86.24W
07/01/2012  E60 MPH          FULTON             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BENTLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

INZ004-005-MIZ077-078-012000-
BERRIEN MI-CASS MI-ELKHART IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN
BERRIEN...NORTHERN ST. JOSEPH AND NORTHWESTERN ELKHART COUNTIES...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NILES...OR NEAR BUCHANAN...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NILES...
  GEORGETOWN...
  GRANGER AND DOWAGIAC...
  ROSELAND...
  EDWARDSBURG...
  CASSOPOLIS...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN
OHIO.

LAT...LON 4202 8589 4166 8598 4169 8647 4201 8618
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 277DEG 19KT 4180 8628

MCS