Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
434 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXTENDS ROUGHLY EAST AND WEST ALONG
A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO BAY CITY TO FREEPORT AND EXTENDING INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES SHOW VALUES APPROACHING 5
INCHES ACROSS EASTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY WHILE THE RAIN GAUGE AT
BRAYS BAYOU AND HIGHWAY 6 IN HARRIS COUNTY IS SHOWING ALMOST ONE
INCH OF RAINFALL IN LESS THAN 30 MINUTES. GIVEN THESE TOTALS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US 59 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH
CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRANSITION
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 38

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN
AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  73  90  73  89 /  60  40  50  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  74  90  73  91 /  70  40  50  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            88  78  88  78  88 /  70  40  50  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WHARTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
451 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-121000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
451 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS COMBINES WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. SOME
AREAS NEAR THE COAST HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL
ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
ISOLATED AREAS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS
FIVE INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US 59 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 45 THROUGH 1 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. COVERAGE WILL BEING TO DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.