Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

702 
WWUS53 KGRR 310521
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
121 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MIC117-310600-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-120731T0600Z/
MONTCALM MI-
121 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONTCALM
COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

AT 120 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM EDMORE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREENVILLE...         EDMORE...             STANTON...
  FERRIS TWP...         LANGSTON...           CEDAR LAKE...
  VICKERYVILLE...       BUTTERNUT...          FENWICK...
  TURK LAKE...          SIDNEY...             CORAL...
  CRYSTAL...            ENTRICAN...           TRUFANT...
  VESTABURG...          PIERSON...            SIX LAKES...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 8484 4312 8531 4329 8531 4330 8554
      4347 8519 4347 8486 4329 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 303DEG 34KT 4339 8508 4322 8533
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

NJJ

424 
WWUS53 KGRR 310553
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MIC117-310603-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-120731T0600Z/
MONTCALM MI-
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MONTCALM COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
200 AM EDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4312 8484 4312 8531 4329 8531 4330 8554
      4347 8519 4347 8486 4329 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 303DEG 34KT 4323 8474 4306 8499

$$

NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
953 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN TONIGHT...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.

RAIN WILL END TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DEPARTS... WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWING. STRONG NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS SWIMMING AND BOATING CONDITIONS ON LAKE
MICHIGAN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

RADAR IS CURRENTLY LIT UP FROM THE BRIDGE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
MANITOWOC. NEW ECHOS WERE FORMING SW OF MANITOWOC ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR BRINGS A BROKEN LINE
OF STORMS ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. SHEAR VALUES ARE
CONSIDERABLY LESS ACROSS LOWER MI THAN ACROSS WISCONSIN. THINKING
THAT CHCS OF SVR STORMS ARE DIMINISHING BASED ON TIME OF DAY AND
MODEL PROGS OF SHEAR BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE. TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT A BIT SLOWER TIMING THROUGH THE
CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
WILL DIG SEWD TONIGHT. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AMPLIFYING
WAVE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
WILL SET OFF A SCT-BKN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR NW OVER WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EASILY SURVIVE THE TREK
ACROSS LAKE MI THIS EVENING AS AXIS OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES
AROUND 2000 J/KG LEANS INTO WRN LWR MI AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LAKE MI
ACTUALLY MAY ALSO PROVIDE SOME BOOST GIVEN THE VERY WARM WATER TEMPS
AND ADDED SOURCE OF MOISTURE. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF THE CWFA TONIGHT.

SOME WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR WITH ANY ORGANIZED/BOWING LINES OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT. ALL THE JUICY DETAILS RELATED TO SEVERE WX
POTENTIAL CAN BE FOUND IN THE SPC DAY1 OTLK AS WELL AS ANY MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS FOR OUR AREA.

BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE SOME ENHANCEMENT AND/OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE NEAR JXN IN THE LATE MORNING PRIOR TO
THE FRONT FULLY EXITING TO THE SE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON TWO SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FCST AS
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.

UPPER NW FLOW EXPECTED TO BE ALOFT MOST OF THIS WEEK WILL HOLD ON
FOR ONE MORE DAY ON THU/THU NIGHT AS A SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WAVE WILL HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. THE FRONT WILL BE
WEAKENING AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. H850 TEMPS AROUND 20C
WILL HELP TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 90 THU AFTERNOON.

THE NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FLATTENING OUT SOME THEN ON
FRI. THIS OCCURS AS THE STRONG WAVE THAT COMES FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION ACROSS THE NRN PACIFIC TRANSLATES INTO THE AREA FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE THAT A WAVE MAY RIDE ALONG
THE STALLING OUT FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ON FRI. IF IT STALLS OUT A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...FRI MAY END UP A BIT MORE WET THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED.

MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING THAT SAT AND SAT NIGHT COULD BE A
SOMEWHAT WET PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY ACTIVE AS THE STRONG WAVE/LOW
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF IT...ALONG
WITH A MOISTURE FEED FROM THE GULF WILL HELP TO BRING A GOOD CHC OF
PCPN TO THE AREA. THE NEW 12Z EURO JUST COMING IN IS NOW SLOWING THE
SYSTEM UP A BIT...SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH THAT TREND.

WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT RATHER WELL AND COOL OFF A BIT BEHIND THE
SAT/SAT NIGHT SYSTEM AS A NICE CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS IN. THIS
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN UPPER
PENINSULA SOUTHEAST TO NEAR GREEN BAY. THE MAIN POINT OF CONTENTION
WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS WHAT THIS LINE DOES AT IT WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

HAVE BROUGHT PREVAILING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES
OF KMKG...KGRR AND KAZO BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z. INLAND TAF SITES ARE
A BIT TRICKIER AND DECIDED TO JUST USE VCTS WORDING AT THIS POINT.
HAVE KEPT CEILINGS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR VSBY/S IN
THE WESTERN SITES AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE COURSE OF TUESDAY MORNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASING NORTH FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OVER VERY WARM LAKE WATERS
IS BOUND TO KICK UP THE LAKE TO ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH. HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH
ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WHILE LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS IF/WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR... WE REALLY
NEED THIS RAIN FOR DROUGHT RELIEF.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...93
SYNOPSIS...MEADE
SHORT TERM...MEADE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...MEADE
MARINE...MEADE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
500 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-312100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
500 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TONIGHT... PRIMARILY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 131 INCLUDING LUDINGTON... MUSKEGON... AND HOLLAND. THE
PRIMARY THREATS ARE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN
DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME
FRAME OF CONCERN IS 9 PM TO 2 AM.

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A LINE
OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY
FOR COMMUNITIES WEST OF HIGHWAY 131.

LMZ844>849-312100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
500 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
NEARSHORE WATERS. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME OF CONCERN IS 9 PM TO 2 AM.

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN A LINE
OVER WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SMALLER WATERCRAFT AND SWIMMERS. THESE HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 8 PM TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1231 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND GST     MEARS                   43.68N 86.42W
07/31/2012  E40 MPH          OCEANA             MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1236 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 NE WHITE CLOUD        43.60N 85.73W
07/31/2012  E50 MPH          NEWAYGO            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 45 TO 50 FROM WZZM TV.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1238 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HESPERIA                43.57N 86.04W
07/31/2012                   NEWAYGO            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FOX 17 VIEWER REPORTS TREES DOWN IN HESPERIA.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1240 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1237 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE WHITE CLOUD        43.60N 85.73W
07/31/2012                   NEWAYGO            MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WZZM TV VIEWER REPORTS A LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN. LOST
            POWER.

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1245 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LUDINGTON               43.96N 86.45W
07/31/2012  M0.80 INCH       MASON              MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MKALEMBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1259 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     TSTM WND DMG     WHITE CLOUD             43.57N 85.77W
07/31/2012                   NEWAYGO            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN WHITE CLOUD AND
            AREAS NORTH...AND ALSO IN THE CITY OF NEWAYGO.

&&

MKALEMBK