Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Green Bay, WI

056 
WWUS53 KGRB 022156
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
456 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WIC087-115-135-022230-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-120702T2230Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WAUPACA WI-SHAWANO WI-
456 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHAWANO...
EASTERN WAUPACA AND WESTERN OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 500 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL IN THE 
CLINTONVILLE AREA. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHAWANO TO 7 MILES NORTH OF 
FREMONT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLINTONVILLE...NEW LONDON...FREMONT...BLACK CREEK...BELLE PLAINE...
  ADAMS BEACH...ROYALTON AND EMBARRASS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO SLOW 
MOVEMENT...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE 
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 8899 4427 8902 4482 8875 4476 8829
      4426 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 322DEG 6KT 4473 8867 4437 8891
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.50IN

$$

TH

146 
WWUS53 KGRB 022211
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
511 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WIC087-115-135-022230-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-120702T2230Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WAUPACA WI-SHAWANO WI-
511 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHAWANO...
EASTERN WAUPACA AND WESTERN OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 504 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING UP TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHAWANO TO NEW LONDON...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  FREMONT...NEW LONDON...BLACK CREEK...LEEMAN...NAVARINO...BONDUEL...
  SHIOCTON AND HORTONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS LINE OF STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WITH THE 
LARGEST HAIL SIZE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE ROYALTON AND NEW LONDON 
VICINITY THROUGH 515 PM CDT. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY 
LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH 
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 8899 4427 8902 4482 8875 4476 8829
      4426 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 295DEG 12KT 4473 8856 4435 8880
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

TH

371 
WWUS53 KGRB 022230
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WIC087-115-135-022240-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-120702T2230Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WAUPACA WI-SHAWANO WI-
530 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WAUPACA AND WESTERN 
OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES IS BEING REISSUED...BUT HAS EXPIRED FOR SHAWANO 
COUNTY... 

PLEASE REFER TO THAT BULLETIN FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

LAT...LON 4425 8899 4427 8902 4482 8875 4476 8829
      4426 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 295DEG 12KT 4470 8847 4432 8871

$$

TH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

COMBINATION OF WARM FROM LIFTING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...INCREASING INSTABLITY AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE FROM MINNESOTA HAVE COMBINED
TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
ACTIVITY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE
ALONG WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN TO THE FOX VALLEY. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL TRYING TO INITIATE NEAR
THE WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF WAUSHARA NORTH TO SOUTHERN SHAWANO
COUNTIES. HRRR HAS ALSO HINTED AT SCATTERED ACTIVITY FORMING IN
THIS AREA AS WELL AS FURTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM
WAUSAU NORTH TO RHINELANDER. FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN
AREA COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...THEN DIMINSH AFTER SUNSET.

BIG QUESTION WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MODELS OFFER
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR MCS INITIATION OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LATER TONIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT FORWARD PROPAGATION
THEREAFTER. ACTIVTY IN THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING...BUT SUSPECT AS LLJ STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
...ACTIVITY SHOULD GET ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. BEST GUESS IS THAT
ANY MCS THAT CAN GET ORGANIZED WILL LIKELY HEAD ESE ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN PERHAPS TURN MORE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE FOX VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTH AND TAPPERED TO SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TUESDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND MCS ACTIVITY SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA.

AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE ALREADY MET HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...IN COORDINATIN WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES OPTED
TO START EXTENDED HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...TEMPERATURES AND
ASSOCIATED HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND PCPN CHANCES...ARE THE
MAIN FCST CONCERNS.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 95-105 RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. FOR PROLONGED EVENTS OF 4 DAYS OR LONGER...WE LOWER
THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD TO 95+...WHICH MAKES THE ISSUANCE OF
AN ADVISORY AN EASIER CALL. RIGHT NOW...THE HOTTEST DAY APPEARS
TO BE THURSDAY...WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 95 TO
100 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF C/EC/NE WI. FORTUNATELY DAYTIME MIXING
SHOULD CAUSE DEW POINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S IN
THE SANDY SOIL LOCATIONS...WHICH ARE TYPICALLY ARE WARMEST SPOTS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR HEAT INDICES MAINLY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA.
THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...AND
GENERALLY COVER AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO SHAWANO TO
GREEN BAY...EXCLUDING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES. THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

OUR BEST PCPN CHANCES SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES...TUESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE SHALLOW AND WEAK...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED AT 925/850
MB. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY...
BUT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING...THINK THAT OUR CURRENT 20-30 POPS
WILL SUFFICE. EXPECT A LULL IN THE PCPN CHANCES FROM WEDS THROUGH
THU NGT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. CHANCE
POPS SEEM WARRANTED WITH THE SECOND FROPA ON FRI/FRI NGT...WITH
A RETURN TO DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...THEN AGAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH ANY MCS ACTIVITY...BUT GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINLY ON TRACK
OF THIS COMPLEX ONLY MENTIONED THUNDER IN RHI TAFS FOR NOW.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ030-031-035>039-045-
048-049.

&&

ESB/KIECKBUSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
403 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-032115-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
403 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE FOX
VALLEY...THEN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR LATER TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 29.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
OF 95 TO 105 OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO SHAWANO
TO GREEN BAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. PERSONS WORKING OR PLAYING
OUTDOORS SHOULD MAKE SURE THEY TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND HAVE
PLENTY OF WATER. ORGANIZERS OF LARGE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE WATER AND SHADE FOR THE
NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT ARE EXPECTED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY MIGHT BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LMZ521-522-541>543-032115-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
403 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY MIGHT BE SEVERE.

INCREASING HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE COLD
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN DURING THE WORK WEEK.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH INLAND
AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT TIMES. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

EB/TSK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
438 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

WIZ031-037>039-045-048-049-074-022330-
BROWN-CALUMET-OUTAGAMIE-SHAWANO-SOUTHERN OCONTO
COUNTY-WAUPACA-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
438 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SHAWANO TO
19 MILES WEST OF OSHKOSH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

AT 428 PM CDT...WEATHER SPOTTERS IN THE CLINTONVILLE VICINITY HAVE
OBSERVED PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACK CREEK BY 525 PM CDT...
  PULASKI AND OSHKOSH BY 545 PM CDT...
  APPLETON BY 555 PM CDT...
  KAUKAUNA BY 620 PM CDT...
  GREEN BAY BY 630 PM CDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS TO BE BLOWN OVER. STAY
AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

TH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
442 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             CLINTONVILLE            44.61N 88.75W
07/02/2012  M0.25 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   STORM CHASER

            PEA TO DIME SAIZE HAIL

0440 PM     HAIL             CLINTONVILLE            44.61N 88.75W
07/02/2012  M0.50 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASHLEYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
444 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             CLINTONVILLE            44.61N 88.75W
07/02/2012  M1.50 INCH       WAUPACA            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ASHLEYW