Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Hastings, NE

275 
WWUS53 KGID 030631
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
131 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEC035-059-129-181-030715-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120503T0715Z/
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-NUCKOLLS NE-WEBSTER NE-
131 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...NORTHERN NUCKOLLS...WESTERN FILLMORE AND CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 129 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SARONVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ONG TO ROSEMONT...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

IN ADDITION...AT 128 AM CDT...GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED TWO 
MILES EAST OF FAIRFIELD WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DEWEESE...SARONVILLE...LAWRENCE...SUTTON...EDGAR...GRAFTON...ONG
  AND SHICKLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9774 4035 9782 4028 9782 4024 9787
      4022 9854 4035 9836 4035 9828 4046 9822
      4063 9807 4069 9773 4044 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0631Z 253DEG 14KT 4058 9799 4047 9789
          4027 9835
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.75IN

$$

FAY

553 
WWUS53 KGID 030647
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
147 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEC035-059-129-181-030715-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120503T0715Z/
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-NUCKOLLS NE-WEBSTER NE-
147 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...NORTHERN NUCKOLLS...WESTERN FILLMORE AND CLAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 143 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GRAFTON
TO ONG TO LAWRENCE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRAFTON...DEWEESE...EDGAR...ONG AND SHICKLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS. IF YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9774 4035 9782 4028 9782 4024 9787
      4024 9843 4035 9836 4035 9828 4046 9822
      4063 9807 4069 9773 4044 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0647Z 253DEG 14KT 4058 9775 4047 9780
          4033 9826
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.75IN

$$

FAY

508 
WWUS53 KGID 030701 RRA
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
201 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEC129-181-030711-
/O.CAN.KGID.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120503T0715Z/
NUCKOLLS NE-WEBSTER NE-
201 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WEBSTER AND
NORTHERN NUCKOLLS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4035 9774 4035 9782 4035 9836 4035 9828
      4046 9822 4063 9807 4069 9773 4044 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 234DEG 26KT 4055 9770 4047 9793
          4049 9814

$$

NEC035-059-030715-
/O.CON.KGID.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120503T0715Z/
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-
201 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
FILLMORE AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 157 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF
GENEVA TO 6 MILES NORTH OF EDGAR TO FAIRFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLAY CENTER...GRAFTON...SARONVILLE AND SUTTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 9774 4035 9782 4035 9836 4035 9828
      4046 9822 4063 9807 4069 9773 4044 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 234DEG 26KT 4055 9770 4047 9793
          4049 9814
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

FAY

334 
WWUS53 KGID 030712 RRA
SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
212 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

NEC035-059-030722-
/O.EXP.KGID.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-120503T0715Z/
CLAY NE-FILLMORE NE-
212 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN FILLMORE AND CLAY
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4035 9774 4035 9782 4035 9836 4035 9828
      4046 9822 4063 9807 4069 9773 4044 9764
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 234DEG 26KT 4060 9761 4052 9785
          4054 9806

$$

FAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1226 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.AVIATION...06Z KGRI TAF. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN A CONCERN
FOR THE TAF PERIOD THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER. WHILE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS OVER THE TAF SITE. BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES
QUASI-ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINS
RELEGATED TO THE WEST/NORTHWESTERN CONUS...WITH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT OVER OUR AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCING FROM THE PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ONWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN RANGE AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. AS OF
18Z THIS WARM FRONT WAS NOTED EXTENDING FROM NEAR KHYS...TO NEAR
KK82...TO NEAR KJYR AND KOLU. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DEW
POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S AT KLXN...TO THE UPPER 50S THROUGH
THE TRI-CITIES...TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
WHERE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED. EARLY AFTERNOON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES
HELPING PROMOTE INCREASED INSTABILITY AND A RESULTANT EXPANSIVE CU
FIELD.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW REGARDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS FORECAST
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD HOLD FOR THE MOST PART. THAT BEING
SAID...FORECAST PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM DO SUGGEST CIN WILL
DECREASE TO ALMOST NOTHING ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST BY 00Z THIS
EVENING...AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE MEANDERING ACROSS
THE AREA THUS PROMOTING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESULTANT
FORCING...FELT IT PRUDENT TO GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM AND
OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGEST 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500J/KG WILL BE
OBSERVED ACROSS OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY REMAINING
RELEGATED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST DEEP LAYER BULK
SHEAR VALUES NEAR 30KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THUS PRESENTING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ALL THAT BEING SAID...SHOULD
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BE REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS
EVENING...SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOST LIKELY BE OBSERVED WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW. FINALLY...0-1KM SRH IS NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL GFS SUGGESTING VALUES
SOMEWHERE AROUND 100 M^2/S^2 ACROSS OUR AREA AT 00Z...BUT WITH
LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HORIZONTAL VORTICITY EXISTING IN THE
VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE
NAM...OPERATIONAL GFS...EC...SREF-MEAN AND HRRR ALL SUGGEST
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL MORPH INTO A MCS
AND PUSH EAST INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. AS THE MCS PUSHES EAST IT SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WHICH SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE MCS IF
NOT HELP IT INTENSIFY THROUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX.
GIVEN ALL THIS...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CWA IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...EXACT DETAILS REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
TRACK OF THIS MCS WILL NOT LIKELY BE KNOWN UNTIL LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE LATEST DATA WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT MOST
ALL OF THE CWA FOR SEVERE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ONE ADDITIONAL
NOTE...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD PUSH OVERHEAD TONIGHT THUS HELPING TO INCREASE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THESE INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORECAST...WILL
HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT MESO-HIGH
SETTING UP OVER THE AREA DUE TO OVERNIGHT RAIN. ASSUMING THE MESO-HIGH
CAN FULLY DISSIPATE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND ASSUMING THERE
IS ENOUGH OMEGA WITH ONE OF THE MANY MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WHICH
WILL BE PUSHING OVER THE AREA ALONG THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL JET
AXIS...THURSDAY AFTERNOON 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2500J/KG COULD CERTAINLY PROMOTE A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR OBSERVING SEVERE
WEATHER ON THURSDAY WILL BE RELEGATED TO OUR EAST WITHIN THE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WILL GO AHEAD AND HIGHLIGHT OUR
EAST FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...STARTING WITH THE MID-TERM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY PERIOD...THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...OR LACK
THEREOF...CONTINUES TO BE THE ULTIMATE DILEMMA DURING THESE 48
HOURS AND CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS CONTINUES TO RUN BELOW
AVERAGE. ALOFT...A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER PERSISTENT PATTERN...AS
MODESTLY STRONG...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN
PLACE...DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
PRIMARY 300MB JET AXIS WILL THUS REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE IN OR NEAR THE CWA...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WAVERS BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE GENERAL REGION. BEFORE
CONTINUING...WILL AGAIN STATE THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS
LOW REGARDING POPS/THUNDER/SEVERE CHANCES...WITH A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS. HOWEVER...WAS NO LONGER WILLING TO LEAVE THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME COMPLETELY VOID OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM MENTION.

STARTING WITH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...DECIDED TO BLANKET A GENERIC
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORMS CWA-WIDE...AS JUST CANNOT GUARANTEE A
STORM-FREE NIGHT ANYWHERE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE ON QPF PLACEMENT...WITH THE ECWMF ROLLING STORMS IN FROM THE
WEST MAINLY IN THE EVENING...WHILE THE NAM/GFS AFFECT AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAINLY AFTER 06Z. LEANING ON THE 12Z
NAM...ONLY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS PRESENT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH AND HEALTHY ELEVATED MUCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG HANGING OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT...JUST FEEL BETTER HAVING A TOKEN 20 PERCENT CHANCE
EVERYWHERE. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL IN
FACT REMAIN STORM FREE...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTION BEING HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY DRIFTING IN FROM THE WEST. AS
FOR SEVERE CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG...20-30 KNOTS AT MOST...BUT OBVIOUSLY WITH HIGH CAPE LEVELS
HANGING AROUND CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND. AS FOR LOW TEMPS...NUDGED UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH MOST OF SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA HOLDING UP IN THE
LOW-MID 60S.

FOR FRIDAY...MUCH OF THE SAME...AS FORCING ALOFT REMAINS
SUBTLE...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES
AGAIN BUILDING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER PER THE NAM...ALTHOUGH
THIS MODEL MAY BE OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND RESULTANT CAPE A BIT.
ALTHOUGH ODDS ARE REASONABLY HIGH THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
STORM FREE...OPTED TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT 20 POP ACROSS SEVERAL
COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80...AS HINTED AT BY THE 12Z GFS AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE 12Z NAM. AGAIN...ANYTHING THAT HAPPENS TO FIRE IN THIS
AREA BEFORE DARK COULD POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE. TEMP WISE...ASSUMING
THAT SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE PRESENT AND CLOUDS ARE NOT
WIDESPREAD...THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A RATHER WARM DAY.
ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AIMING QUITE AS HIGH AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...NUDGED
UP A FEW DEGREES...NOW PUTTING MOST OF THE CWA IN THE 87-90 RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INTRODUCED MORE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80 IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO TRACK OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVES...AND IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUED HEALTHY ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY...JUST CONTINUED WITH
MORE OF THE SAME...KEEPING THE SAME AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS...BUT WITH BETTER FOCUS LIKELY TARGETING
AREAS JUST TO THE NORTH. BY THIS TIME...THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE WEST WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG A MT-UT AXIS...BUT STILL
WELL TO THE WEST. TEMP WISE SATURDAY...KEPT SUMMER-LIKE READINGS
GOING AND EVEN NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS PER MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH MID-UPPER 80S MOST AREAS...AND SOME LOW 90S MOST
FAVORED IN KS ZONES.

FOCUSING NOW ON THE LONGER TERM PERIODS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY: IN SHORT...EACH AND EVERY PERIOD FEATURES AT LEAST
20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH WILL STATE THE OBVIOUS
THAT SOME OF THESE PERIODS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING DRY...WITH
PLENTY OF TWEAKING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOOKING AT THE
BIG PICTURE AND LEANING TOWARD A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS...THERE
IS ACTUALLY REASONABLY HIGH AGREEMENT THAT ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA...DRIVEN SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. AS A RESULT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...40S-50S PERCENTS ACROSS MAINLY NEB
ZONES FOR NOW...ARE FOCUSED ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE GFS HAS MUCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG IN
PLACE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...SO CERTAINLY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS SUNDAY
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
SATURDAY...RANGING FROM LOW 70S NORTHWEST TO LOW 80S SOUTHEAST.
BEYOND SUNDAY...THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS WOULD SEEM TO COME
MORE AND MORE UNDER QUESTION...BUT WILL STICK WITH THEM PER NOW
ACCORDING TO THE ALLBLEND CONSENSUS INITIALIZATION. THE BASIC STORY
INVOLVES A GRADUAL CARVING OUT OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL CONUS...RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMP REGIME
THAN THE CURRENT PATTERN. NUDGED DOWN HIGHS SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY WITH
UPPER 60S-LOW 70S...WHILE TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY MID-UPPER 60S ALL AREAS AND MAYBE
A REBOUND TO NEAR 70 WEDNESDAY. EVEN IF RAIN WERE TO MATERIALIZE
DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...HAVE DROPPED THUNDER
MENTION IN THE FORECAST IN FAVOR OF PLAIN SHOWERS...AS MUCAPE PROGS
FROM BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ADVERTISE VERY LIMITED IF ANY CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. IN CLOSING...WANT TO REITERATE THAT ALTHOUGH POPS IN
THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME LOOK QUITE WARRANTED...WOULD EXPECT
TO SEE AN EVENTUAL TRIMMING OF SOME OF THE RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
740 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
031200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
740 PM CDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VARIOUS CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA. DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...THE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS LIKELY
TO BE RATHER LIMITED...AND MAINLY TARGET AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 IN NEBRASKA. A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF STORMS
WOULD FAVOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TIME FRAME AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING AND MONDAY...AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON A PERIODIC BASIS WITH THE PRIMARY
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING...OBSERVERS ARE ALSO
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1145 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     HAIL             4 N HASTINGS            40.65N 98.39W
05/02/2012  M2.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            2 INCH HAIL MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.

&&

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1150 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     HAIL             6 ESE CLAY CENTER       40.49N 97.95W
05/02/2012  M1.25 INCH       CLAY               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            JUST A FEW

1148 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ESE CLAY CENTER       40.49N 97.95W
05/02/2012  M0.92 INCH       CLAY               NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL UP UNTIL 1148PM STILL RAINING

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1156 PM CDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 PM     HAIL             3 NNW HASTINGS          40.63N 98.41W
05/02/2012  M2.50 INCH       ADAMS              NE   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

DOXEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 AM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
05/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

&&

SALTZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HAIL             HASTINGS                40.59N 98.39W
05/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       ADAMS              NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF TOWN NEAR 12TH AND
            BRENTWOOD AVE.

&&

SALTZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
110 AM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     HAIL             DEWEESE                 40.35N 98.14W
05/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FAY