Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

378 
WGUS75 KFGZ 031925
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1225 PM MST FRI AUG 3 2012

AZC001-032015-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120803T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
APACHE AZ-
1225 PM MST FRI AUG 3 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN APACHE COUNTY...

AT 1211 PM MST...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAVE EXITED THE 
WALLOW BURN AREA...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE 
FLASH FLOODING THREAT THROUGH 115 PM MST. RADAR ESTIMATES FROM THESE 
PREVIOUS STORMS HAS EXCEEDED 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF THE 
UPPER NUTRIOSO DRAINAGE SOUTH OF EAGER. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
NUTRIOSO...EAGAR...AND ROUTE 180 AND 191 BETWEEN EAGER AND NUTRIOSO. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OF CREEKS...ROADS...AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES
IS LIKELY. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ROCKSLIDES...
MUDSLIDES...AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN STEEP TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 
WALLOW BURN AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 10929 3395 10908 3383 10931 3391 10943

$$

KD

183 
WGUS75 KFGZ 032012
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
112 PM MST FRI AUG 3 2012

AZC001-032020-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-120803T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
APACHE AZ-
112 PM MST FRI AUG 3 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM MST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
APACHE COUNTY...

HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE WALLOW BURN AREA IN THE VICINITY OF 
EAGER AND NUTRIOSO. AS SUCH...THE ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING 
IN THE AREA IS NO LONGER EXPECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 10929 3395 10908 3383 10931 3391 10943

$$

KD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST FRI AUG 03 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
ARIZONA. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE
INCREASED UPWARD FORCING AS SHOWN BY DIV-Q FIELDS. GIVEN THE ALREADY
PRESENT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY...AND THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM THE
REGION. IN ITS PLACE WILL BE A RETURN TO THE UNDISTURBED MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH MIGRATES WESTWARD AND IS
CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE BEST TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE SHUNTED WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM AZ SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD. LATE IN THE
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 19-20Z. MVFR VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM AFFECT A TERMINAL. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFT 02-03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........DB
AVIATION.......AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST FRI AUG 3 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-040700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
930 AM MST FRI AUG 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.