Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE HEAT AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPS TODAY APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AGAIN FOR
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS ARE A
BIT LOWER FRIDAY AFTERNOON... THE FORECAST TEMP AND DEWPOINT
COMBINATION USING A BLEND OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION BUT WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY NEW ISSUANCE ATTM TO PREVENT CONFUSION AND ISSUE
LATER ON IF SEEN FIT.

THE PRESENCE OF THE PERSISTENT WEAK LEE SFC TROUGH AND ADVECTION OF
SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE NE GULF COAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES... HOWEVER
SOME HI-RES SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT PROPAGATING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH GA DUE TO EITHER SUBTLE FEATURES OR OUTFLOW
FROM MORE ORGANIZED SIMULATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH. WILL NOT BANK
MUCH ON THIS UNLESS UPDATES ARE NEEDED AND WILL ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT
POPS IN PARTS OF THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AND HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH. WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG...WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR...AND PW VALUES OF 1.8-2.0 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE THE MAIN THREATS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE NE CONUS TODAY THRU FRIDAY...AN
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH
RELATIVELY LOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND THE SOLUTIONS
SEEM TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE WITH THE SYSTEM.
THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE SFC FRONT...HOWEVER MOST AGREE WITH IT LINGERING NEAR THE TN
VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND. PROGGED MID LEVEL RH INDICATED BETTER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT. ALL CONSIDERED...DECIDED TO HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST PROBS IN THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST...BECOMING
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AREA-WIDE.

03

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO NORTH GA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT SO HAVE TWEAKED POPS A BIT NORTHWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. DRIER INTO MONDAY BUT
MOISTURE RETURNING BY TUESDAY. WITH UPPER TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS RANGING INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

41

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/419 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE STAYS OVER THE GULF AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE SAT. A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTER
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES TODAY AND INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES FRI. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO NW GA BY 00Z SAT. THIS FRONT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FL BY 12Z- 18Z SUN. THIS
FRONT BRINGS IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE
STATE SUN AND MON. CONTINUING WITH JUST ISOLATED POPS SUN AND MON
WITH THE BEST AREA BEING CENTRAL GEORGIA. MOISTURE DOES INCREASE
AGAIN TUE/WED SO WILL KEEP ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA BACK IN THE FORECAST
DAY 6-7.

01

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. BEST
CHANCE FOR TSRA SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN SITES OF KMCN AND
KCSG FOR THIS AFTERNOON... THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
AFTER 20Z. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
AT THE OTHER SITES BUT TOO LOW TO MENTION. MOSTLY WNW TO W WINDS
AT 10 KTS OR LESS BECOMING W TO SW OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CIGS
LOOK TO BE SCT050 TO BKN040 THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENHANCED CU FIELD
OR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND BY NEAR 13Z FRIDAY COULD SEE SOME SCT025
WITH SCT100.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION TIMING AND CIGS FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELSE.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  96  73  97 /  10  30  20  20
ATLANTA         75  93  74  93 /  20  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     68  88  67  89 /  10  40  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    74  93  72  95 /  10  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        76  95  75  95 /  20  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     74  91  73  94 /  10  30  20  20
MACON           74  96  74  96 /  20  30  20  30
ROME            73  94  71  94 /  10  40  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  73  93  71  93 /  20  30  20  20
VIDALIA         77  98  77  95 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CHATTAHOOCHEE...CLARKE...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...
HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
MORGAN...MUSCOGEE...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...PULASKI...
PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...UPSON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1052 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-271500-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1052 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BECOME ENHANCED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE MAINLY CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
CAPES WILL INCREASE 2000 TO 3000 THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IS STILL AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
418 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

GAZ086-113-262045-
418 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN TOOMBS AND
EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 417 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORMANTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TOOMBS AND EMANUEL COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NORMANTOWN AND OAK PARK. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 8226 3227 8233 3230 8243 3237 8241
      3239 8240 3241 8240 3244 8238 3247 8243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 204DEG 6KT 3235 8239

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
455 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

GAZ103-262130-
455 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WEBSTER COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 449 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LEVERETTS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WEBSTER COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE LEVERETTS...WESTON...KIMBROUGH...CENTERPOINT AND DUMAS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8465 3203 8466 3204 8465 3206 8444
      3197 8445 3196 8444 3193 8444 3191 8446
      3191 8458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 198DEG 8KT 3195 8460

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

GAZ069-081-262145-
520 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN UPSON AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SALEM...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
UPSON AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MUSELLA...KNOXVILLE...ROBERTA...SALEM AND
LOGTOWN. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 8421 3286 8424 3285 8412 3285 8402
      3269 8399
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 178DEG 8KT 3279 8414

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
601 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

GAZ090-262230-
601 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN CHATTAHOOCHEE
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING THE THUNDERSTORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTY THROUGH 630 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH
OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 8476 3245 8476 3249 8474 3252 8471
      3253 8464 3250 8464 3249 8466 3244 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 171DEG 2KT 3248 8468