Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BROADEN THROUGH SATURDAY.
DIURNAL CONVECTION STILL THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOIST SOUNDINGS AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING PROMOTING
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH LESS
COVERAGE AREA FURTHER NORTH. AS SURFACE LOW FEATURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BEST PRECIP CHANCES TRANSITION OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH GEORGIA. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES
REMAINING IN PLACE AFTER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN FIRING AGAIN TOMORROW. MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE HIGHEST CORES...COULD SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. HIGHS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105 TOMORROW...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME.

31

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY CONCERNING SHIFT IN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND IS REPLACED OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. BY A LARGE...BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. I HAVE MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS CYCLE. SEE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.../ISSUED 418 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012/

THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS
AND HAVE GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. BY MONDAY A BROAD LONGWAVE
TROUGH WHICH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SFC...WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA...PROVIDING
A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA /PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 2 INCHES/...AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY /SURFACE CAPES GREATER THAN 1500 EACH AFTERNOON/ WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE LATER IN
EXTENDED PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO CLOUD COVER. ANTICIPATE
LESS CLOUDS UNTIL HEATING KICKS IN EACH DAY AND ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
TEMPERATURES HIGHER IN THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.

ATWELL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
TSRA EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER 02Z. STORM SOUTH
OF ATL HAS PRODUCED STRONG SE WINDS BUT WILL DIMINISH AROUND 01Z.
ANY SE WINDS SHOULD SWITCH TO SSW OR SW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
FROM THE SW ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR COVERAGE OF TSRA EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z SO PROB30 LOOKS GOOD. MVFR VSBYS ONLY
POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OCCURS TONIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  96  72  95 /  40  20  20  30
ATLANTA         75  94  74  93 /  40  30  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     67  91  67  90 /  40  30  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    71  95  71  94 /  30  40  30  40
COLUMBUS        74  93  74  94 /  30  40  30  30
GAINESVILLE     73  95  73  92 /  40  30  30  30
MACON           74  95  73  95 /  40  20  20  20
ROME            71  98  71  95 /  30  40  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  71  94  71  93 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         76  97  75  97 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...SNELSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
622 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-071030-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
622 AM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN
THE FLOW OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE QUARTER SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...AS WELL AS
BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH LAST LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION WILL
COMBINE WITH HIGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL. THE STORMS
WILL BECOMING FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING
SURFACE BOUNDARY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ019-030-070030-
806 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN POLK AND FLOYD
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 802 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LINDALE...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
POLK AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE SENEY...ROME...LINDALE AND CAVE SPRING.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8542 3429 8509 3416 8504 3411 8504
      3401 8534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 072DEG 10KT 3418 8516

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
807 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ031-070030-
807 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN PAULDING COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 806 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEW GEORGIA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PAULDING COUNTY THROUGH 830 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE BROWNSVILLE...NEW GEORGIA AND UNION. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 8500 3391 8481 3380 8474 3377 8489
      3379 8491 3380 8499 3383 8500
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 066DEG 9KT 3383 8486

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
825 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADAIRSVILLE             34.37N 84.93W
07/06/2012                   BARTOW             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES REPORTED DOWN INCLUDING ONE ON A MOBILE
            HOME IN AND AROUND ADAIRSVILLE.

&&

DEESE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
834 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ053-070115-
834 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN COWETA COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 830 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THOMAS CROSSROADS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
COWETA COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE THOMAS CROSSROADS...MADRAS...ARNCO-SARGENT...NEWNAN AND
MORELAND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8478 3343 8489 3350 8472 3338 8462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 053DEG 10KT 3341 8472

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ032-033-070100-
835 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 MPH WINDS IN COBB AND FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 834 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MOUNT BETHEL...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
COBB AND FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOUNTAIN PARK...SANDY SPRINGS...ROSWELL...
MOUNT BETHEL...SWEAT MOUNTAIN...SANDY PLAINS...KENNESAW STATE
UNIVERSITY...JIM R MILLER PARK...WHITE WATER PARK...DOBBINS AIR
RESERVE BASE...MARIETTA AND KENNESAW. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8465 3408 8456 3407 8442 3410 8442
      3410 8434 3397 8425 3396 8430 3397 8434
      3392 8435 3388 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 076DEG 12KT 3399 8440

!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
849 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

GAZ069-080-081-093-070130-
849 PM EDT FRI JUL 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN UPSON...MACON...TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 848 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER KNOXVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
UPSON...MACON...TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FRIENDSHIP...MUSELLA...
KNOXVILLE...LEE POPE...ROBERTA...HORNS...POTTERVILLE...FICKLING
MILL...REYNOLDS AND SALEM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8416 3269 8433 3283 8404 3268 8383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 061DEG 10KT 3272 8399