Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 PM CDT Wed Aug 8 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Range (Tonight through Friday)...

Primary focus is centered on the first 12 hours of the forecast
with convection and severe potential highlighting the period. A weak
warm boundary left over from this morning's convection extends from
east central MO through the southwest portion of the CWA and then
curls north to a low over east central NE. A vorticity max diving
southeast towards OMA with an attendant trof axis is expected to
initiate a second area of convection over southeastern NE where the
airmass has become unstable. While the 0-6km shear is marginal for
severe it may be sufficient when combined with the moderate
instability to support a small MCS which would most likely propagate
southeast along the aforementioned warm front and affect the western
portion of the CWA. The overall signal of the models for the past
couple of runs supports raising pops for this evening over this
region. Should a MCS form pops will need to be raised for this
evening.

Otherwise, a cold front quickly following on the heels of this upper
feature will usher in the first thrust of cooler air. Thursday
should see temperatures falling back to seasonal values which will
feel like a major cool down when compared to the prolonged heat
wave. A second reinforcing surge of colder air will follow Thursday
night and Friday as a strong shortwave drops through the western
Great Lakes and sends a back door cold front through the region.
Friday will be absolutely beautiful with temperatures 5-7 degrees
below normal.

MJ

Medium Range (Saturday through Wednesday)

Medium range model output continues to play with the timing and
potential for precipitation for the weekend into next work week with
the broader model consensus still pointing at temperatures starting
the weekend below normal. Big adjustment in the models over the past
24 hours is how quickly the east Canadian trough fills and lifts out
of the eastern CONUS. The shortwave we are watching for
precipitation late in the weekend - currently seen as a shortwave
rotating into British Columbia under a Gulf of Alaska low- is
expected to help kick the developing eastern CONUS trough out as we
move through Sunday. Currently, the latest model runs have all
congealed on this solution for the late weekend, though timing
shortwaves over a ridge into a northwest flow is highly prone to
errors. So, have limited POPs to the 30 percent range, and kept them
focused into Sunday night where the nocturnal jet would enhance the
potential; but concede that confidence is not high as timing and
expected location for the precipitation may change a lot in the next
couple of days as the wave become better sampled after landfall.

Otherwise, temperatures starting the weekend will be below normal
for mid-August thanks to the trough that will shift into the eastern
CONUS. This is still expected to result in afternoon highs ranging
through the 80s on Saturday as it bringing seasonal air south from
Canada. The potential for convection Sunday may mess with the
expected warm up, but by Sunday temperatures should begin to rebound
back to around normal, mid 80s to low 90s, as the southerly surface
winds sets up across the Kansas and Missouri behind the retreating
Canadian surface high. Temperatures should continue to creep up
Monday and Tuesday; though with a flat northwest flow still
prevailing highs should not climb much beyond the mid-90s through
the first half of next work week.

Cutter

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 00Z TAFs...Crux of this evenings forecast is the ongoing
activity in the vicinity of the terminals at this time. Expectations
are that the storms will likely persist across the Kansas-Missouri
border region through about 03Z, after which conditions should
rapidly improve into the VFR range. Winds should remain from the
northwest through the rest of the overnight hours.

Cutter

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
103 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091130-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
103 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REFORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF
THE REGION. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER.

A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
THROUGH IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN AND
POSSIBLY WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WHILE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
RISK SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY BUT A BETTER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW DURING
THESE PERIODS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ025-102-MOZ020-028-082345-
ATCHISON KS-BUCHANAN MO-DONIPHAN KS-PLATTE MO-
615 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PLATTE...
SOUTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...SOUTHERN DONIPHAN AND NORTHEASTERN ATCHISON
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 614 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TROY TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF TROY TO ATCHISON...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  ATCHISON...RUSHVILLE...DONIPHAN...LEWIS AND CLARK VI...DE KALB AND
  BEAN LAKE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3968 9489 3955 9490 3946 9505 3960 9530
      3966 9523 3975 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 277DEG 16KT 3976 9510 3968 9510
          3960 9518

DEROCHE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ103-090000-
LEAVENWORTH KS-
624 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

AT 623 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF LANSING...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LANSING AND FAIRMOUNT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3933 9504 3926 9484 3920 9489 3920 9490
      3919 9490 3914 9494 3925 9513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 282DEG 8KT 3925 9500

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
648 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST JOSEPH               39.76N 94.85W
08/08/2012  M63 MPH          BUCHANAN           MO   ASOS

            STJ MEASURED WIND GUST AT 54 KTS

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
655 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             2 W MUSCOTAH            39.55N 95.56W
08/08/2012  E0.75 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT 286TH AND EDWARDS. TIME ESTD.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
657 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEAVENWORTH             39.32N 94.92W
08/08/2012  E60 MPH          LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME SIZE HAIL VERY HEAVY RAINS

&&

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
701 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

KSZ103-104-MOZ028-029-090030-
CLAY MO-LEAVENWORTH KS-PLATTE MO-WYANDOTTE KS-
701 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PLATTE...WESTERN CLAY...WESTERN
WYANDOTTE AND NORTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEAVENWORTH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LANSING...PLATTE CITY...WEATHERBY LAKE...SMITHVILLE...PARKVILLE...
  TRACY...FERRELVIEW...PLATTE WOODS...LAKE WAUKOMIS...STILLINGS...
  FAIRMOUNT...EAST LEAVENWORTH...FARLEY...PIPER...WALDRON...
  WOLCOTT...KANSAS CITY INTL ARPT...HOOVER...MAYWOOD AND POMEROY.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...

  I-70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 410 AND 414.
  I-435 LOOP FROM MILE MARKERS 10 TO 41.
  I-29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 25.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3937 9450 3907 9480 3929 9507 3947 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 297DEG 30KT 3933 9490

DEROCHE