Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Des Moines, IA

499 
WWUS53 KDMX 161907
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
207 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

IAC003-159-173-175-161930-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-120616T1930Z/
UNION IA-TAYLOR IA-RINGGOLD IA-ADAMS IA-
207 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
ADAMS...NORTHWESTERN RINGGOLD...TAYLOR AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT AYR TO 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF LENOX...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CRESTON...PRESCOTT...ARISPE...CROMWELL...CRESTON AIRPORT...AFTON
  AND THAYER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED
WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO THE BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM OF A REINFORCED BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4059 9492 4063 9492 4116 9454 4102 9401
      4097 9402 4059 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 223DEG 36KT 4091 9422 4099 9459
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DEITSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
110 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
THE MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER IOWA TODAY.  AS OF 4 AM THE MCV
THAT DRIFTED ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY AND LAST EVENING WAS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA.  RADAR ANIMATION SHOWED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND A
LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.  THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TO AFFECT THE AREA IS OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.  WE HAVE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 3000 CAPES THIS AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THAT STORMS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS NEBRASKA AT THIS TIME THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THAT WE WILL SEE
STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY SOME.

NOT SURE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MIGHT BE HOWEVER.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS MODEST BUT DEEP LAYER SHEER IS LACKING.  STEEP
LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO GOING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BASED ON SOUNDINGS.  STRONG WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
EXIST WITH THESE STORMS SUPPORTED BY DCAPES AROUND 1500 ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE STORMS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL WITH
PWATS ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THREE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING...PRECIP TRENDS
TONIGHT...WARMTH MON THROUGH WED...AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND WED AND THU.  QUESTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
WHETHER EVENING CONVECTION IS LINGERING FROM CURRENT HIGH PLAINS
PRECIP OR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  00Z HRW WRF NMM/ARW SOLUTIONS ARE TOO SLOW WITH
CURRENT CONVECTION...WHICH IS OFTEN THE CASE AS ITS EXPLICIT
CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRY TO CATCH UP.  IF YOU SPEED THOSE SOLUTIONS UP
THREE-FOUR HOURS THEY SUGGEST ANY LINGERING PRECIP FROM TODAY WILL
BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS SEEMS REALISTIC CONSIDERING ADEQUATE FORCING
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON TRAILING EDGE OF CURRENT WY/MT PV
ANOMALY/SHORT WAVE AS IT TRACKS INTO MN BY 00Z.  WRF RUNS DO NOT
DEPICT MUCH IN THE WAY OF AREAL COVERAGE HOWEVER SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...TRANSITIONING FROM NW-SE.  0-6KM SHEAR IS
NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WHICH IS
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ANYWAYS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WE CAN RECOVER
FROM PLAINS DEBRIS.

AFTER A BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A MINOR CONCERN WILL BE
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SUN NIGHT.  GFS/ECMWF THETA-E
ADVECTION IS IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALONG 310K ISENT
SURFACE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SUSPECT WITH PRESSURE DEFICITS QUITE
LOW.  STRONG WARM ADVECTION OFTEN SEEMS TO OVERCOME MOISTURE
DEFICIENCIES HOWEVER SO HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON POPS WITH
THEIR SRN EXTENT.  BY MON MORNING WARM ADVECTION PUSHES NORTHWARD
WITH IA WELL INTO WARM SECTOR.  SOUNDINGS DEPICT BRISK SWLY WINDS SO
CONTRARY TO THE GFS...MIXING SHOULD BE QUITE AGGRESSIVE AND COULD
VERY WELL PUSH TEMPS CLOSE TO THE NAM.  WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS ALL THREE DAYS...ESPECIALLY MON WHICH IS NOW WELL
INTO THE 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  GFS HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO USE
RECENTLY FOR TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  SOUNDINGS
HAVE NOT BEEN AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH MIXING /TOO COOL/ WITH TOO MUCH
MOISTURE 1KM AND BELOW.

WED INTO THU STILL LOOKS ON TARGET FOR ANOTHER APPRECIABLE PRECIP
EVENT.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ABOVE AVERAGE AS GFS/GEFS/ECMWF AND
GEM ALL OFFER SIMILAR PATTERNS WITH NWRN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DRAGGING FRONT INTO IA BY LATE IN THE DAY WED.  FORCING AHEAD OF
WAVE AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE OF MN/ONTARIO JET SEGMENT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME ANY CAP AND PRODUCE
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY OF THE MORE ELEVATED VARIETY INTO THE NIGHT.
SHEAR SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FARTHER NORTH
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.
WITH MEAN WIND PARALLEL TO SAGGING FRONT...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES COULD SEE DECENT RAINS.  DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT HOWEVER WITH HEAT AND BRISK SWLY WINDS
PRECEDING EVENT EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK.  RELATIVELY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO END THE WEEK AS WELL WITH MODELS IN
AGREEMENT INCREASING AMPLITUDE WITH ROCKIES RIDGE AND NERN CONUS
THROUGH.  SHOULD DRY OUT FOR A BIT BEHIND MIDWEEK SYSTEM...BUT WARM
ADVECTION PRECIP MAY RETURN TO MO VALLEY BY SAT BEYOND THE PERIOD
AND EVEN INTO THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION 16/12Z...
MCV MOVING ACRS NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN IOWA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THE NORTH ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDING THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  MVFR TO ISOLD IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN AND AROUND
THE STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.  THIS PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING
WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOONS STORMS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.  THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A WARM
AIRMASS EXPANDS INTO THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...BSS
AVIATION...COGIL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-171100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
548 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TODAY BEFORE
BEING RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF
THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
SUNDAY...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN BY MONDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING OR JUST EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT NORTHWEST AND
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES LATER TODAY...AND
AGAIN AROUND MIDWEEK.

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1030 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S FONDA               42.54N 94.85W
06/15/2012                   CALHOUN            IA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL SIX TO EIGHT INCH LIMBS DOWN. TOP OF A LARGE TREE
            WAS SHEARED OFF. PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO OBSERVED.

&&

DEITSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1136 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SSW JOLLEY              42.48N 94.72W
06/15/2012                   CALHOUN            IA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN ACROSS TOWN. ONE TREE FELL ON
            TOP OF POWER LINES KNOCKING THEM TO THE GROUND. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

DEITSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E VARINA              42.66N 94.82W
06/15/2012                   POCAHONTAS         IA   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL 6 INCH LIMBS DOWN ACROSS THE YARD. PEA SIZE HAIL
            ALSO OBSERVED. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

DEITSCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
130 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

IAZ092-093-161900-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-
130 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT TAYLOR AND NORTHWEST RINGGOLD
COUNTY...

AT 127 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL TAYLOR COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRAVITY...            BLOCKTON...           CONWAY...
  SHARPSBURG...         LENOX...              CLEARFIELD...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

DEITSCH