Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

675 
WGUS74 KCRP 272213
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
513 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

TXC469-272315-
/O.CON.KCRP.FF.W.0034.000000T0000Z-120927T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VICTORIA-
513 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL VICTORIA COUNTY...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT AN EARLIER 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCED BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BETWEEN 
BLOOMINGTON AND DACOSTA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL 
CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.  SOME CREEKS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...CHOCOLATE BAYOU NEAR F.M. 616.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2863 9687 2861 9689 2861 9690 2871 9695
      2875 9686 2865 9680

$$

JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
326 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO AND MOVING OVER SOUTH TX WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES STARTING IN THE
WEST AND SPREADING TO THE GULF WATERS. ISOLATED ACTIVITY HAS
ALREADY FORMED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY...AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PWAT VALUES AOA
1.7 INCHES THIS EVENING...AND ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES BY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL LINGER OVER
THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MORNING...SO DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AGAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ONSHORE WEAK TO MODERATE FLOW WILL
PERSIST FOR THE TIME. LITTLE CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
PUSHED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF PROG
GENERALLY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACRS THE CWA/MSA SATURDAY
FROM MEXICO. THE GFS PROGS EXTREMELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT BY
SATURDAY WITH READINGS AREA WIDE AROUND 2.25 TO 2.50 INCHES. (NOT
UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE ADVECTION OF COPIOUS MSTR FROM THE SW GULF.)
IN ADDITION...THE FOREGOING DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC TROUGH OVER CWA
SAT. THUS...EXPECT AT LEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SAT OVER
THE CWA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT LEAST OVER THE CNTRL/WRN
CWA SAT. BASED ON ANTICIPATED RAINFALL (RELIANCE ON HPC QPF WITH
ADJUSTMENTS)...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. NOT YET
CONFIDENT REGARDING FFA WHEN CONSIDERING FFG. THIS SFC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AFTER SHIFTING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. AS A
RESULT...A STRONG MSLP GRADIENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVR THE MSA
RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY (THUS
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW NOT DUE TO A COLD FRONT.) CONCUR WITH THE
FOREGOING MODELS THAT DRIER ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IN RESPONSE
TO DRY AIR...COOLER TEMPS WITH READINGS IN THE 60S EXPECTED EARLY
WED/THU MORNING. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S/LOWER 90S (NOT HIGHER
OWING TO A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW/TROUGH..AND THUS LOWER
1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES...EXPECTED OVER THE ERN CWA/MSA
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY.)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    75  92  76  85  71  /  10  30  50  60  50
VICTORIA          71  90  72  84  68  /  10  30  50  60  50
LAREDO            76  94  77  88  73  /  20  30  60  70  40
ALICE             74  92  72  87  70  /  20  30  50  60  40
ROCKPORT          77  87  76  84  73  /  10  30  50  60  50
COTULLA           73  91  73  85  69  /  20  40  70  70  40
KINGSVILLE        74  92  74  86  70  /  20  30  50  60  50
NAVY CORPUS       77  88  78  84  74  /  10  30  50  60  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LK/84...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
542 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-281045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
542 AM CDT THU SEP 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. SEVERE CRITERIA IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

CB/TB