Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1001 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM TOLEDO
ACROSS OHIO WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING AND
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT THE REST OF TODAY MIGHT LOOK LIKE.
STORMS WILL BE MOVING ASHORE FROM LORAIN EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DID LOWER HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST
A BIT WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY. WARM
FRONT TO PUSH NORTHEAST TODAY AND STILL HAVE WESTERN AREAS INTO
THE LOWER 90S. NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA UNDER SPC SLIGHT RISK
AND HAVE KEPT THE SEVERE WORDING...BUT REALLY WILL KEEP AN EYE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AS WELL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT TO POPS...BUT
CHANCES AREA WIDE TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO A POINT WHERE A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
MORE HOT WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

LINGERING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET. I DO EXPECT EARLY IN THE EVENING THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ACTIVITY HOWEVER. DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT AND LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...THIS
COULD BE THE NEXT FOCUSING MECHANISM TO PRODUCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NIGHT. SO WILL KEEP A MENTION GOING TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND HOT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS RETURNS FOR THURSDAY
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE LOOKING AT
1000 TO 500 MB THICKNESS VALUES AGAIN AROUND 579 TO 580 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO BETWEEN 20 AND 24
DEGREES C ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DROP TO 20 TO 22
DEGREES C BY FRIDAY. EVEN SO...HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE OCCURS ACROSS THE AREA.
FLOW KEEPS WARM AIR SURGING NORTH INTO THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY.  EXPECTING A BIT OF A DELAY HELD TEMPS SATURDAY IN THE 90S
FOR HIGHS WITH 850MB TEMPS REMAINING NEAR 20C. WOULD EXPECT THE
FRONT TO ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION SO ALSO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DID HOLD ONTO A CHANCE POP SOUTH SUNDAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE DRY MONDAY WITH THE
GFS SHOWING WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON BALANCE THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH ALSO
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY AND
EVENING. OF COURSE CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION WOULD BE
MVFR/IFR.

.OUTLOOK...POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN NON VFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE TODAY.  A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY...MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY.  THE FRONTS WILL
LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
LAKE. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AND WAVES BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

LEZ142>147-162>167-OHZ003-006>012-017>019-027-028-041000-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-LUCAS-
WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-HANCOCK-SENECA-
HURON-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE STRONG
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LEZ061-148-149-168-169-OHZ013-014-020>023-029>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-041000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-GENEVA-ON-THE-
LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-
WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

LOMBARDY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1037 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     TSTM WND GST     SHEFFIELD LAKE          41.49N 82.10W
07/03/2012  E60.00 MPH       LORAIN             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND REPORT OCCURRED AT STATE ROUTE 6 AND LAKE BREEZE
            ROAD.

&&

KIELTYKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1113 AM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 AM     HAIL             TIFFIN                  41.12N 83.18W
07/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       SENECA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMAYERS