Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN GA WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MORE CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT HAS BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ONE SMALL AREA
OF CONVECTION HAD OCCURRED NEAR SAVANNAH...BUT THAT HAS FALLEN
APART. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH ALL THESE STORMS CAN BE
SEEN MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL GA...WESTERN SC AND NC. STILL HAVE
SOME INSTABILITY BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL SC. AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...AND SHOULD LAST THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL
OR DAMAGING WINDS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH CONSENSUS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. ONE OTHER ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND FOG FORMATION
WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
FOG...BUT PATCHY FOG CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ON WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST AND BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MODEL TIME
SECTIONS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE/GUIDANCE POPS ALSO ON THE INCREASE.
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO LIKELY BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL STAY NEAR A CONSENSUS
OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. STILL A LINGERING CHANCE OF RAIN
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY LATER IN THE
DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOK DRY. GFS INDICATING A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA
BY LATE MONDAY BUT MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED. DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
RECENTLY AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS AND GENERALLY DISSIPATING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA IN THE LAST HOUR ON
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DESPITE THE SETTING OF THE SUN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
AND THEREFORE NOT INCLUDING IN THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH AGS/DNL
WOULD BE MOST AT RISK DURING THE 01Z- 03Z TIME FRAME AND WILL BE
AMENDED AS NEEDED.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WINDS THAT WILL
BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THINK AS THE CLOUDS
THIN LATE TONIGHT SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALL TERMINALS
WITH POSSIBLE TEMPORARY IFR VSBYS AND/OR CIGS OGB/AGS DURING THE
09Z-13Z PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AFTER 14Z WITH
WINDS PICKING UP FROM THE WEST TO AROUND 10-12 KNOTS WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION WILL PRECLUDE
IT FROM THE FORECAST. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND CAN
BE EVALUATED EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...CL
AVIATION...HC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1237 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-040900-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
1237 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH
RIVER AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.