Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
200 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
MIDLANDS BY TUESDAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE WEEK PROVIDING NEEDED RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HOT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT TEMPS TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW 100'S IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS
AND THE AUGUSTA AREA. THERMAL WIND HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH SURFACE GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH. MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHERE BEST CAPE IS SO EXPECT A LINE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM SPARTANBURG
TO DARLINGTON. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING SURFACE
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH. WITH -20 AT 26KFT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
TO GET 1 INCH HAIL BUT DIME TO NICKEL MAY BE OSBERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHERN VA THROUGH
NORTHERN TN AND WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD REACHING CENTRAL NC
AND TN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE
STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NC THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE SEVERAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH MOST
SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PWAT VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND TWO INCHES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TUESDAY AND UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL GIVE A CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EDGE
TO TUESDAY AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE
MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS AND LOWER CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL.
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT BE AS WARM LIMITING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING STALLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL SOMEWHAT
AND POSSIBLE BE BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY MOIST WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING EXCEPT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SURFACE WINDS HAVE PICKED UP
DUE TO A THERMAL WIND DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH. EXPECT GUST OF 15 TO 25 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE SUBSIDING. THUNDERSTORMS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME BECAUSE OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDINESS
AND FOG MAY OCCUR...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
419 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-100830-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
419 AM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
A SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.