Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2012
Small Craft Advisory 75, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Sep 24, 2012, 3:53 AM EDT. It took effect at Sep 24, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 30 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 24, 2012, 3:53 AM EDT (07:53 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 24, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT
- Expired
- Sep 25, 2012, 8:02 PM EDT
- In force
- 30 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
061 WHUS71 KBUF 240753 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 353 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 LOZ043-044-241600- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-120924T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 353 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ045-241600- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0074.000000T0000Z-120924T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 353 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. * WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-241600- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T0400Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 353 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-241600- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 353 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. * WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-241600- /O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 353 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY. * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ THOMAS
8 follow-up statements
510 WHUS71 KBUF 241346 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 946 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 LEZ020-242200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T0400Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 946 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-242200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 946 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. * WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-242200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 946 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-044-242200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 946 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ045-242200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.120924T1800Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 946 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. * WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
182 WHUS71 KBUF 241943 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 LEZ020-250345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T0400Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-250345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-250345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-044-250345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ045-250345- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RSH
030 WHUS71 KBUF 250140 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 940 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 LEZ020-250945- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 940 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-250945- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 940 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-250945- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 940 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-044-250945- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 940 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ045-250945- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 940 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WINDS...SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ HITCHCOCK
106 WHUS71 KBUF 250739 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 LOZ045-251545- /O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120926T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ020-251545- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-251545- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS. * WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-251545- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-044-251545- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 339 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
907 WHUS71 KBUF 251320 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 LEZ020-252130- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-252130- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-252130- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-044-252130- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...4 TO 7 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ045-252130- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120926T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 920 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS. * WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
293 WHUS71 KBUF 251953 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 LEZ020-252200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LEZ040-041-252200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET LOWERING TO 2 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ042-252200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ043-044-252200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 6 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ LOZ045-260200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120926T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 353 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$ RSH
026 WHUS71 KBUF 252102 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 502 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>044-252215- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120925T2200Z/ UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- 502 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. $$ LOZ045-260200- /O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120926T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 502 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 KNOTS. * WAVES...3 TO 4 FEET. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS. && $$
193 WHUS71 KBUF 260002 MWWBUF URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 LOZ045-260115- /O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0075.000000T0000Z-120926T0200Z/ LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2012 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WINDS AND WAVES HAVE DIMINISHED. $$ APFFEL
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 24, 1:51 AM EDT, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 24, 1:51 AM EDT, 2 hours 2 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
151 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
A WESTERLY FLOW OF CHILLY AIR WILL BRING MORE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS EAST OF THE LAKES OVERNIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ENDING. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
CLOSE TO AVERAGE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A FAIR DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE BULK OF OUR FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE WILL BE CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EAST OF BOTH LAKES.
OFF LAKE ERIE...
THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND BRING SOMEWHAT DEEPER BACKGROUND MOISTURE INTO
PLAY. LAKE INDUCED CAPES OVERNIGHT WILL PEAK AT AROUND 1200J/KG WITH
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS AROUND 25K FEET. WELL ALIGNED WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SHEARED DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WHILE A WELL
ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT IS NOT EXPECTED...PATCHES OF LAKE
EFFECT RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER INTO THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN ERIE/WYOMING AND
WESTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO CHAU/CATT COUNTIES WHERE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE.
BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND INSTABILITY WILL
DECREASE AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BEGINS TO LOWER BEHIND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE LAKE EFFECT
RAIN...WITH SHOWERS ENDING ALTOGETHER BY EARLY TO MID MORNING MONDAY.
OFF LAKE ONTARIO...
A DISORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN STRETCHED ALONG THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LK ONTARIO EAST OF ROCHESTER AS OF 0230Z...WITH
THE EASTERN END EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING FUELED BY INSTABILITY THAT INCLUDES LAKE INDUCED
CAPE VALUES OVER 1300J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOVE 27K FEET.
IN ESSENCE...NO CAP. A FULL WESTERLY FETCH AND EXCELLENT
THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT RAIN TO INTENSITY OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH AS IS TYPICAL IN SEPTEMBER...THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN QUITE
CELLULAR ALL NIGHT. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
SOME IMPRESSIVE RAIN WITHIN THIS BAND...WHICH IS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
GIVEN THE STRONG LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. MAY SEE SPOTTY 1-2 INCH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN PORTIONS OF OSWEGO COUNTY OVERNIGHT IF THE BAND GETS
WELL ORGANIZED.
LIGHTNING/THUNDER HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADDED TO THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS
AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ABV THE -10C LEVEL WILL BE IN PLACE. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY
AND THE HGT OF THE -10C WILL BE 8-10K FT...SO THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT DEPTH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. RADAR ECHOES >40 DBZ HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED ON BOTH KBUF AND KTYX DUAL POL RADARS WITH A
STRONG SUGGESTION OF GRAUPEL DUE TO THE HIGH REFLECTIVITIES AND LOW
CORRELATION COEFFICIENT BASE DATA. THIS IS A DEAD GIVE AWAY FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHTNING. THERE WAS ELECTRIFICATION IN THIS MORNINGS
ACTIVITY WHEN THE PARAMETERS WERE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...SO THIS MAKES
GOOD SENSE.
MONDAY MORNING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL QUICKLY BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS WILL CARRY A
WEAKENING LAKE EFFECT BAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE...CLIPPING THE EASTERN SHORELINE ON ITS WAY. EXPECT THE
BAND TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS. THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES WILL BE MILDER
WITH UPPER 40S. DIFFICULT CALL ON FROST POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LAKE
EFFECT CLOUD COVER. MANY OF THE TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS SUCH AS THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL WILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF LAKE GENERATED
CLOUD OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES AND
LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN ALLEGANY COUNTY...WHERE ENOUGH CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT
TO ALLOW FROST TO FORM IN THE COOLER VALLEYS. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL
HOIST A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALLEGANY COUNTY ONLY.
ON MONDAY SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ON SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN
FLOW...ALTHOUGH 850MB TEMPS ARE STILL QUITE COOL AT AROUND +3C. THIS
WILL SUPPORT LOWER 60S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPS UP...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH FROM
LATE MORNING ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY
EVENING WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS OCCURRING AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES TO START WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO STREAM IN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WILL A 30KT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA AS INDICATED ON 12Z NAM
BUFKIT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
WARM ADVECTION. LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SHORES AND ALONG THE
NIAGARA ESCARPMENT WILL SEE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE INTERIOR WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER COULD STILL SEE SOME UPPER 30S IN THE LOWER SPOTS BUT
THE HIGHER WINDS SHOULD PREVENT ANY FROST.
TUESDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE FRONT NOW STALLED WEST ACROSS MICHIGAN. THIS WILL BRING A DAY OF
WARM BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 OR 30 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER
70S ACROSS DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY AND LAKE SHORES
UNDER CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND A FIELD OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN ADDITION TO A LAYER OF SCATTERED CIRRUS ALOFT.
A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN BEGINS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE STUBBORN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT
FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER MICHIGAN ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. 12Z
MODELS INDICATE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THEN LIFTING NORTH AND EAST AS THE SURFACE
LOW LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TO COVER FOR THIS.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION AND RETURN OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
THE LOW/FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP AND VERY MILD TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF
5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY FALL INTO THE
50S WILL SOME SPOTS NEAR THE LAKE SHORES ONLY FALLING TO AROUND 60.
WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE WITH THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS NY. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION OF LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME. WITH THE SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH...TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM RAIN. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT
PARTS OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NORTH COUNTRY COULD RUN WARMER. TEMPS
ACROSS THE WEST COULD RUN A BIT COOLER THAN FORECAST IF SHOWERS
ARRIVE BEFORE PEAK HEATING. LOW TO MID 60S LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE.
CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPS WILL WORK IN LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES BEHIND THE
FRONT.
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN DRYING OUT THE AREA BUT SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER. FOR NOW TEMPS LOOK TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S
WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY THREAT OF FROST.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO START IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST
AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO DIG SOUTH
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A NICE FALL DAY WITH PLENTY
OF SUN SHINING THROUGH AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE WAKE
OF WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT. AFTER THIS POINT THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW A DIGGING TROUGH
RETURNING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST...THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH SWINGING THE TROUGH TO THE COAST BUT THE 12Z GFS
DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER LAKE ERIE.
THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND LIFTS THAT ACROSS PA TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MAINLY PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND SOUTHERN
FINGER LAKES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE LAKES BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.
SUCH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LEADS TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
SOME HPC GUIDANCE TO PRODUCE THE FORECAST. TEMPS AVERAGE CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY ALONG THE LINES OF THE MEXMOS. 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR
LOWS WITH NO THREAT OF FROST AT THIS TIME. POPS ARE ALL LOW CHANCE
AS WELL UNTIL MORE AGREEMENT CAN BE MADE IN THE MODELS.
TEMPS WILL RUN AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS. A WESTERLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS OUT OF MOST OF OUR TAF LOCATIONS
BUF/IAG/ROC/ART. THE EXCEPTION HERE IS JHW...WHERE THIS FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT MORE SW BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WHICH WILL LIFT WHATS LEFT OF
THE ACTIVITY NORTHWARD. THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF 3000 TO 4000
CIGS TO BUF/IAG/ROC/ART AS THIS LEFT OVER MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD.
18Z TODAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THIS
EVENING IS AN INCREASING SW FLOW...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 40 KTS 2000 FT. THIS SHOULD MIX DOWN TO SOME DEGREE AT
BUF/IAG...BUT NOT SO MUCH AT JHW/ROC/ART. BECAUSE OF
THIS...INTRODUCED LLWS AT THE LATTER THREE SITES...WHILE KEEPING
GUSTS AT BUF/IAG TO INDICATE CONTINUED MIXING TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
NOSE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED SCA'S FOR LK ERIE AND THE WESTERN HALF OF LK ONTARIO...WITH
THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LK IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WEE HOURS OF
THE MORNING.
WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
WITH THE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOR
THEM ON LAKE ONTARIO AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.
WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED.
ON MONDAY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS...
AND THEY WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WITH MORE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES BY LATE MORNING. THE MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LOZ043>045.
&&
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/RSH
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/RSH
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...HITCHCOCKHazardous weather outlook, Sep 23, 4:06 PM EDT, 11 hours 47 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 NYZ001>008-010-011-019-020-085-242015- NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE- 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ021-242015- ALLEGANY- 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FROST ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FROST ADVISORY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF NYZ012>014-242015- WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO- 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-242015- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK- LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY- LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER- 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS MONDAY MORNING ON LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. WATERSPOUTS ARE MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF LEZ020-LOZ030-242015- UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER- 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF SLZ022-024-242015- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG- SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS- 406 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF HITCHCOCK
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 23, 10:36 PM EDT, 5 hours 17 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1036 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 NYZ006-240845- OSWEGO- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO 1036 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012 ...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER OSWEGO COUNTY INTO MONDAY MORNING... A DISORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY BEFORE MIDNIGHT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE COURSE OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SOAKING RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE COUNTY. RAIN FALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM A HALF INCH IN MOST AREAS TO AS MUCH AS TWO INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WHERE THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL. RSH
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 7:40 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 50 min | |
| Sep 24, 9:03 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 42 min |
Nearby
Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2012Every small craft advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.