Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2012

Lake Effect Snow Warning 6, NWS Buffalo, NY

November 25, 2012Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 25, 2012, 4:03 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Nov 25, 2012, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 17 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 25, 2012, 4:03 AM EST (09:03 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 25, 2012, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Nov 26, 2012, 6:19 AM EST
In force
17 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 205 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-11-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2012-11-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 177 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1239 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
177 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

456 
WWUS41 KBUF 250903
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
403 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

NYZ006>008-251715-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0005.121125T1800Z-121127T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0006.121125T1800Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
403 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM EST MONDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 INCHES OVER OSWEGO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...4
  TO 8 INCHES FOCUSED ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3
  INCHES MONDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE
  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE
  MID 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE
  CHALLENGING...IF NOT DIFFICULT...TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
  ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT WHEN
  THE SNOW BAND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND SNOWFALL RATES COULD
  APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH
7 follow-up statements
229 
WWUS41 KBUF 251241
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
741 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

NYZ006>008-252045-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.121125T1800Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
741 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 4 INCHES OVER OSWEGO COUNTY TODAY...4 TO
  8 INCHES FOCUSED ON THE TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3
  INCHES MONDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE
  MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS
  AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS IN 
  THE MID 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S MONDAY. 

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL 
  PRODUCE CHALLENGING...IF NOT DIFFICULT...TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 
  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION 
  TONIGHT WHEN THE SNOW BAND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND 
  SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH
555 
WWUS41 KBUF 251748
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

NYZ006>008-260200-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.121125T1800Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON OVER OSWEGO AND
  SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. THEN 4 TO 8 INCHES FOCUSED ON THE
  TUG HILL PLATEAU TONIGHT...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY...LEADING TO
  STORM TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE
  SNOWS.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS IN 
  THE MID 20S TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL 
  PRODUCE CHALLENGING...IF NOT DIFFICULT...TRAVEL CONDITIONS. 
  THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION 
  TONIGHT WHEN THE SNOW BAND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND 
  SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-260200-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.121125T1748Z-121126T0500Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
1248 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT. 

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES....AS LOW AS A QUARTER OF A MILE WITHIN THE CORE OF
  THE LAKE SNOW BAND. 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS AROUND
  30 TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY LAKE SNOWS
  WILL CROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
  PRODUCE CHALLENGING DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
  LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ROADS BECOME FURTHER SNOW COVERED.
  SNOWFALL RATES WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THE
  CORE OF THE SNOW BAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

THOMAS/WOOD
214 
WWUS41 KBUF 252044
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
344 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

NYZ006>008-260445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
344 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES TONIGHT...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES
  MONDAY. HIGHER END ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE TUG
  HILL PLATEAU.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30 THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS IN THE MID 20S 
  TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL PRODUCE
  CHALLENGING...IF NOT DIFFICULT...TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS WILL
  ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION TONIGHT INTO
  MONDAY MORNING WHEN THE SNOW BAND WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY AND
  SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

NYZ010-260445-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-121126T0500Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
344 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH
  BUFFALO AND WEST SENECA.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES THIS EVENING.

* WINDS...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS AROUND 30 
  TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...A BAND OF MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
  BUFFALO METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
  WILL PRODUCE CHALLENGING DRIVING CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
  THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ROADS BECOME FURTHER SNOW
  COVERED. SNOWFALL RATES WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
  WITHIN THE CORE OF THE SNOW BAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$
956 
WWUS41 KBUF 252348
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

NYZ010-260100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-121126T0500Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...BUFFALO
648 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY. 

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WHICH WAS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH TOWNS OF
BUFFALO HAS WEAKENED.

$$

NYZ006>008-260800-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
648 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HEAVIEST
  SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF OSWEGO AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN.

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES IN MOST
  PERSISTENT BANDS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SOUTH OF OSWEGO AND
  NORTH OF WATERTOWN.

* VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 81
  TONIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE
  BAND WILL MEANDER BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS CENTER. THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWS WILL FALL ON THE TUG HILL...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR. THUNDERSNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE BAND WILL
  PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL
639 
WWUS41 KBUF 260331
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1031 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

NYZ006>008-261100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1031 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HEAVIEST 
  SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF OSWEGO AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES IN MOST 
  PERSISTENT BANDS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS SOUTH OF OSWEGO AND 
  NORTH OF WATERTOWN. 

* VISIBILITIES...A QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 81
  TONIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THE
  BAND WILL MEANDER BETWEEN PARISH AND ADAMS CENTER. THE HEAVIEST
  SNOWS WILL FALL ON THE TUG HILL...WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3
  INCHES PER HOUR. THE BAND WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AND BECOME LESS
  ORGANIZED MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

IF YOU LOSE POWER AND PLAN ON RUNNING A GENERATOR...MAKE SURE
THAT THE GENERATOR IS LOCATED OUTDOORS AND IS PROPERLY
VENTILATED. SPACE HEATERS SHOULD ALSO BE PROPERLY VENTILATED AND
USED ONLY IF THEY ARE OPERATING PROPERLY. MAKE SURE SNOW DOES NOT
BLOCK EXHAUSTS AND FRESH AIR INTAKES FOR HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACES
AND WATER HEATERS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

APFFEL
427 
WWUS41 KBUF 260901
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
401 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

NYZ007-008-261015-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121126T2200Z/
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
401 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

WHILE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL; BE FOUND OVER THE TUG HILL
AND SOUTHERNMOST SECTIONS OF LEWIS COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM...
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED.

$$

NYZ006-261715-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
401 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* LOCATIONS...OSWEGO...JEFFERSON AND LEWIS COUNTIES. HEAVIEST 
  SNOWS WILL BE NORTH OF OSWEGO AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN. 

* TIMING...THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES TODAY.

* VISIBILITIES...AS LOW AS A HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TODAY.

* IMPACTS...ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SLICK
  TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SECONDARY ROADWAYS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN
ALSO BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

&&

$$

RSH
981 
WWUS41 KBUF 261119
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
619 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

NYZ006-261230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0006.000000T0000Z-121126T2200Z/
OSWEGO-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...OSWEGO
619 AM EST MON NOV 26 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING. 

WHILE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE FRESH ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES TODAY...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER
EXPECTED.

$$

RSH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 25, 3:55 AM EST, 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 25, 3:55 AM EST, 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
355 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOUND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THE COLD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER GREENLAND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE DOOR WIDE OPEN FOR A
CONTINUAL FEED OF AIR OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH FOUND OVER MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA WILL
KEEP SEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AND
AS WE FOCUS UPON THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR OUR MESOSCALE WEATHER
REVEALS A SFC BASED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH CHILLY -10C H85 AIR POURING OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NOSE OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PASS OVER
OUR REGION DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY...AND AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
PROMOTE BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET. MEANWHILE...
A WEALTH OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO
RE-ENERGIZE THE LAKE EFFECT OFF BOTH LAKES...WHICH HAD BEEN STRIPPED
OF SUCH SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LAST EVENING.

THE ADDITION OF THE MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL SET UP A
3-5K FEET DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY A
MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER A LONGER FETCH ACROSS BOTH
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THERMODYNAMICALLY...H85 TEMPS OF -10C WILL
KEEP MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY OVER BOTH LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH LICAPES IN THE VCNTY OF 500 J/KG.

BREAKING DOWN THE SPECIFICS OF EACH LAKE...
A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAKE ERIE
TODAY...BUT AS ELUDED TO EARLIER...BACKING WINDS IN THE LOWER
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN A MAXIMUM FETCH OVER THE LAKE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS THE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE FIELD DEEPENS THIS MORNING...
DISORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL
LIFT NORTH TOWARDS BUFFALO AND THE IAG FRONTIER. DURING THE MIDDAY
AND AFTERNOON...A 240-250 FLOW WILL DIRECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE IAG FRONTIER WHILE LITTLE IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL
OVER THE SRN TIER. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED...DO NOT
EXPECT MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES FOR ANY ONE SPOT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY AND WILL BE COVERED WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.

FOR LAKE ONTARIO...
WEAKLY ORGANIZED LAKE SNOW SHOWERS WERE FOUND OVER CAYUGA AND
SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY AT 0830Z...BUT AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT THIS MORNING...THE LAKE SNOWS SHOULD BLOSSOM
WITH THE ADDITIONAL OF THE MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE. THE AIRMASS
WILL NOT BE AS SHEARED OVER LK ONTARIO AS THAT OVER LK ERIE...AND
THERE WILL INITIALLY BE A SUBTLE UPSTREAM CONNECTION TO GEORGIAN BAY
AS WELL.

DURING THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...THE 300 FLOW WILL BACK TO 280...
LIFTING A BAND OF FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED SNOW ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY.
THE BAND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO ABOUT 270. THIS WILL
FOCUS AN INCREASINGLY WELL ORGANIZED PLUME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER
THE TUG HILL REGION...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES TONIGHT COULD APPROACH 2
INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL NOT ONLY BE ENHANCED BY THE
USUAL OROGRAPHIC LIFT OF THE TUG...BUT MOST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IMMEDIATELY INLAND FROM
THE LAKE.

ALONG WITH THE MODERATE THE HEAVY LAKE SNOW TONIGHT...THE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF THE LIFT WITHIN THE
BAND SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ELECTRIFICATION WITHIN THE MORE INTENSE
CELLS. HAVE THUS ADDED THE MENTION FOR SOME THUNDER.

ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT OFF LK ONTARIO HAS
PROMPTED AN UPGRADE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH THE FOCUS BEING ON THE TUG HILL. SNOWFALL TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY OVER OSWEGO COUNTY TO THE TUNE OF 1-3 INCHES...THEN AS
MUCH AS 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL TONIGHT OVER THE TUG HILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD...A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OF
SEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...WITH 850 MB TEMPS REMAINING BETWEEN -8C AND -10C. THIS WILL
KEEP AT LEAST SOME SEMBLANCE OF A LAKE RESPONSE GOING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EXACT LOCATION OF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEPENDENT
UPON SUBTLE UNDULATIONS IN THE FLOW INDUCED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

OFF LAKE ERIE...THE LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK
THROUGH BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THANKS TO THE FACT THAT ANY
REAL MOISTURE WILL LIE BELOW THE 5 KFT LEVEL...AND WELL BELOW THE
FAVORABLE REGION FOR DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINING IN THE FORM OF ONLY SOME FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTH OF
BUFFALO GIVEN THE GENERAL 260 TO 270 DEGREE FLOW.

MEANWHILE OFF LAKE ONTARIO...A 270-280 DEGREE FLOW WILL BE FOCUSING
A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE TUG HILL AT THE START OF MONDAY...WITH THE LONGER
FETCH AND MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT /LAKE EQLS AROUND 11 KFT AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE EXTENDING ALMOST TO THIS LEVEL/ THE PRIMARY
FACTORS SUPPORTING A MORE ORGANIZED BAND COMPARED TO ITS WEAKER LAKE
ERIE COUNTERPART. OVER TIME...THE STEERING WINDS WILL INITIALLY VEER
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED WESTERLY FLOW THEN DEVELOPING DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS EVOLUTION IN THE FLOW WILL SEND
THE LAKE SNOWS SOUTH OF THE TUG HILL AND INTO CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY
FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING AND EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THESE
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD TO THE WATERTOWN AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THEN BACK TO THE TUG HILL PLATEAU LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LAKE ONTARIO LAKE SNOWS MIGRATE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...THEY SHOULD ALSO BE MARKEDLY WEAKENING WITH TIME DUE
TO BOTH THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED NATURE OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW AND
THE INTRODUCTION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT...WHICH WILL LEAD TO DECREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WITHIN THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY LOWER SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES AND
AMOUNTS WITH TIME...WITH ANOTHER 1-3" OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY WITHIN
THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS MONDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR SO MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR FINALLY HELPS SQUELCH
THE ACTIVITY ALTOGETHER ON TUESDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE EFFECT AREAS...EXPECT DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY AND MUCH OF
MONDAY NIGHT. LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
COME INTO DRASTICALLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE AND THE EVOLUTION OF ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...WITH THIS LATTER FEATURE NOW WEAKER AND PASSING BY MUCH
FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH /ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/ IN ALL MODELS. ON THIS
WEAKER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY BRING A LOW
CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE FORECAST BY
PULLING BACK FURTHER ON POPS FROM OUR EXISTING CONTINUITY...WITH
SNOW CHANCES NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW TO OUR SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS
MAINLY RANGE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF TUESDAY'S SYSTEM...THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SOMEWHAT
COLDER AIR THEN FOLLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE
BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF LOW-MID RANGE CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES COMING ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GIVEN STILL-COLD TEMPS OF -8C TO -10C AT 850 MB
AND SOME INCREASE IN SYNOPTIC-SCALE MOISTURE...CAN ALSO SEE THIS
FEATURE ALSO GENERATING SOME EMBEDDED AREAS OF LAKE ENHANCEMENT AS
IT PASSES THROUGH...THOUGH THESE SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT GIVEN
THE RAPIDLY VEERING NATURE OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN THE
RENEWED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF BOTH LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
GRADUALLY WIND DOWN ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING AND DRIER
AIR BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION.

AFTER THAT...THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME PERIOD STILL LOOKS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO DIFFER IN ITS
HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE/SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD DROP ACROSS
THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME...
BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR REGION.
GIVEN BOTH THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE CURRENT MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...WILL JUST KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLAY THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD FOR NOW...WHILE REINTRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON
SATURDAY AS DECENT WARM ADVECTION TAKES SHAPE.

LOOKING OUT JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD...ONE THING THAT DOES
LOOK MORE CERTAIN IS A PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS AND
AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF FAVORING
SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
PACIFIC COASTLINE. DOWNSTREAM...THIS WOULD RESULT IN RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES EVENTUALLY SLIDING EASTWARD...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
CORRESPONDINGLY RETURNING AS PER THE 8-14 DAY CPC FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK LAKE EFFECT SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF DAYLIGHT. WHILE
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS...THE LAKE RESPONSE WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SRN TIER (INCLUDING KJHW AND KELZ).

DURING THE COURSE OF THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON THOUGH...LAKE SNOWS
OVER THE SRN TIER WILL LIFT NORTH TO KBUF/KIAG. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP AT
KBUF. THERE COULD EVEN BE A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT
KROC THIS AFTERNOON.

EAST OF LK ONTARIO...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. LAKE SNOWS OVER OSWEGO COUNTY
WILL THEN LIFT NORTH TO THE TUG HILL REGION...WHERE THEY SHOULD
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...CIGS
COULD DROP TO MVFR LEVELS AT KART LATE.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES WITH LOCAL IFR...
OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVER THE UPPER LAKES WILL PRODUCE A STRONG ENOUGH SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER ALL
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS THE NEXT SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST FROM THE UPPER MID WEST ON
MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC PRESSURE WILL RELAX. THIS WILL LEAD
TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND LOWERING WAVES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ006>008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ043-
         044.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR LOZ042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR/THOMAS
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 24, 9:43 PM EST, 6 hours 20 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
943 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

NYZ006>008-260245-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
943 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-260245-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
SOUTHERN ERIE-
943 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-260245-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
943 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ030-260245-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
943 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE
ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 25, 12:48 PM ESTLake Effect Snow AdvisoryBUFErie6 hr

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2012Every lake effect snow warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.