High Wind Warning 3, NWS Buffalo, NY

041 
WWUS71 KBUF 242012
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
312 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-250415-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120225T0500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
312 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WINDS...GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-021-250415-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.120224T2200Z-120225T0700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
312 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES REGION...AND OSWEGO
  COUNTY.

* TIMING...EARLY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

* WINDS...GUSTS TO 65 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

ZAFF

579 
WWUS71 KBUF 250357
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1057 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-250500-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120225T0500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1057 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER.

* TIMING...THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

* WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

NYZ003>006-013-014-021-250700-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120225T0700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
1057 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...GENESEE VALLEY...FINGER LAKES REGION...AND OSWEGO 
  COUNTY. 

* TIMING...THROUGH 2 AM.

* WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR...WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. IF YOU HAVE A HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES BE EXTRA CAREFUL UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES. STAY TUNED TO
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

THOMAS

485 
WWUS71 KBUF 250514
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1214 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

NYZ003>006-013-014-021-250615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120225T0700Z/
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...
OSWEGO...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...WELLSVILLE
1214 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED...THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. 

$$

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-250615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120225T0500Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1214 AM EST SAT FEB 25 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WARNING. 

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE AND
NIAGARA FRONTIER ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. 

$$

THOMAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
708 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW AND RAIN TO THE
REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WINDY CONDITIONS AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY...WITH
MORE LAKE SNOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN WITH LOTS TO TALK ABOUT HERE. MODELS HAVE
FINALLY COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. A FAIRLY
TIGHT CONSENSUS TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE
LOW WILL BE DEEPENING RAPIDLY...AS IT IS CLOSING OFF IN THE UPPER
LEVELS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT EXTENDS
TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...PERHAPS BRINGING AN INCH OR SO OF
SNOW BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF AND CHANGES TO RAIN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH OF THIS...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S SOUTH OF THE THRUWAY AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
THEN EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW GETS CLOSER. FOR MOST...THIS
SHOULD BE RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES WHERE SNOW
AND SLEET STILL MAY MIX IN AT TIMES.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL AREAS OF CONCERN STEM FROM THIS SYSTEM.

STRONG WINDS...

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO
THE WEST THIS EVENING...AS THE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE LAKES.
BECAUSE THE LOW IS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AT THIS TIME AS IT CLOSES OFF
AT 500 MB...EXPECT WINDS TO BE QUITE GUSTY THIS EVENING. A LOOK AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THE 00Z/06Z NAM AND THE 09Z RUC ALL NOW
SHOWING 925 MB WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
YORK THIS EVENING. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT GUSTY WINDS WILL MIX
DOWN ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LIKELY
THIS EVENING AS THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND LAKE INSTABILITY AID IN
MIXING. IN ADDITION...OPTED TO EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK AS STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO MIX
DOWN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
AT WELLSVILLE...AND MATCHES UP WITH NEIGHBORING HEADLINES.

SNOW OFF LAKE ONTARIO (AND SYNOPTIC SNOW)...

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...COLDER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW.
WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE -6C TO -9C RANGE
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF SYNOPTIC MOISTURE ON THE BACK OF
THE EXITING LOW. MODELS REFLECT THIS IN QPF FIELDS...WHICH APPEAR TO
KEY HEAVILY ON UPSLOPE FEATURES. IF IT WERE DRY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WOULD BE SKEPTICAL OF THESE QPF AMOUNTS...BUT GIVEN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MOISTURE WRAPPED LOW...GENERALLY ACCEPT QPF
FOR HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12/RGEM. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY...WITH THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HERE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLDEST...AND UPSLOPING THE GREATEST. BECAUSE OF THIS...ISSUE
WARNINGS FOR THIS AREA...WITH THE TUG HILL LIKELY TO SEE ROUGHLY
FOOT OF SNOW FROM THIS. IN JEFFERSON/LEWIS COUNTIES...SNOWS WILL BE
MAINLY SYNOPTIC TODAY...AND LAKE ENHANCED TONIGHT...WHILE OSWEGO
COUNTY WILL SEE MORE OF A PURE LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WHILE HEADLINES
DIFFER SLIGHTLY...AM GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 6 O 12 INCHES IN THE
WARNING AREA...WITH A SLIGHTLY LATER START TIME FOR OSWEGO COUNTY.
THE BIGGEST IMPACT SHOULD BE ON THE TUG HILL TONIGHT...WHEN
UPSLOPE SNOWS COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
VERY POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO IN NORTHERN CAYUGA AND WAYNE COUNTIES. MOST ORGANIZED
BANDS WILL START LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE...

OFF LAKE ERIE...SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. UPSLOPE REGIONS SHOULD
AGAIN SEE THE MOST SNOW...PARTICULARLY THE CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND
PERHAPS THE BOSTON HILLS. THIS HAS ALSO PROMPTED A LAKE EFFECT
ADVISORY.

FOR THE BIG CITIES OF BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER...EXPECT LESSER SNOW
AMOUNTS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE TIE INS WITH MOISTURE
UPSTREAM...AS THIS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOW FALL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DEEPENING LOW THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
TODAY WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. A BRISK
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLDER AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS AND STEADIER SNOW SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

REGARDING THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF LAKE ERIE...A COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH AND LAKE INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM
LEVELS AROUND 9K FEET) WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF
SATURDAY. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FETCH WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN TIER...INCLUDING SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES. FROM
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW A TREND OF DIMINISHING MOISTURE AND A
LOWERING INVERSION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WORKS EAST FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SNOW GROWTH
BECOME EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. BASED ON THESE
TRENDS...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A SIMILAR TREND WILL BE TAKING PLACE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SATURDAY. THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS OF DEEP MOISTURE...SNOW GROWTH
AND INSTABILITY (EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ABOUT 10K) WILL RESULT IN
STEADIER SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE FELT OVER OSWEGO COUNTY
WHERE STEADIER SNOW WILL HAVE ALREADY SET UP FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORY ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED LAKE SNOWS ACROSS WAYNE AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES AS WELL. BUT SINCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL NOT DIRECT THE STEADIER SNOW INTO THESE COUNTIES UNTIL LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A
WARNING IF THE SNOWS BECOME ORGANIZED SOONER THAN EXPECTED. THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL LINGER SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE LOWERING INVERSION AND
DECREASING MOISTURE ALLOW THE SNOW TO SUBSIDE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE STEADIER LAKE SNOWS WILL STILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
CONNECTIONS TO GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE HURON COULD BRING HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE
ONTARIO AS WELL.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL HAVE HAVE AN
ADDITIONAL IMPACT ON TRAVEL WITH FREQUENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY
IN THE STEADIER LAKE SNOW AREAS.

FOR SUNDAY...ANY SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...A DEVELOPING
LOW WILL BE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA AND BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOK FOR A WARM AND DRY START TO THE WEEK AS A CLIPPER LOW SLIDES
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC PLACING WESTERN NEW YORK
FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. ANY
ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIP WILL OCCUR FAR TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA...RESULTING IN DRY DAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE AREA HELPING HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S.

MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A DRY NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THERE
ARE SOME DISPARITIES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BASED ON
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF A SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO FORM
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER IN DEVELOPING BROAD WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO
THE ECMWF THAT ALLOWS COLDER AIR TO FLOW ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRESENTS A VERY SIMILAR
CONUNDRUM TO THE ONE PLAYING OUT RIGHT NOW FOR TONIGHT/S FORECAST
AND GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE ARE TALKING ABOUT...CHANGES WILL BE VERY
MINOR...STICKING WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S
MONDAY NIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST DURING THE
EARLY PART OF NEST WEEK AND TRACKS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS NEW YORK STATE SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TIMING DEPENDENT ON WHICH MODEL YOU GO WITH. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ALREADY DISCUSSED AND THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLUTION...THE GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
BROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS WITH RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE TRENDS THIS SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BRING ART A PERIOD
OF SNOW...WITH ELSEWHERE LIKELY TO JUST SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD TREND LOWER AS MORE MOISTURE
BUILDS IN...THOUGH THE SE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP BUF/IAG/ROC
IN THE MVFR RANGE.

STEADIER RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LOWER BOTH VSBY AND CIGS. AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW-W LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST.

EXPECT SOME RESTRICTIONS TO REMAIN FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY EXITS EAST. LOWEST
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT JHW/ART...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS MOST
LIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR...WITH IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS
OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES.
SUNDAY...VFR...SCTD LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEASTERN LAKE ONTARIO.
MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUES GALES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS...AS LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS. STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE ON LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING...WITH THIS THEN SHIFTING TO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SMALL
CRAFTS UP ELSEWHERE.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UP WELL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH GALES LIKELY TO
TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SOME TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WHILE
INTENSIFYING. THIS WILL CAUSE A RAPID WIND INCREASE AND SHIFT LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR CAUSING A SIEGE
EVENT. BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...HAVE ISSUED A LAKESHORE FLOOD
WATCH FOR ERIE AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NYZ001-010-019-020-085.
     LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NYZ010-019-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ007-008.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ006.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ004-005.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     NYZ002>005-011>014-021.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
         SATURDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SATURDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
         EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ030.
         GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
         FOR LOZ043>045-063>065.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...TJP
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...APFFEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

NYZ007-008-251115-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ006-251115-
OSWEGO-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004-005-251115-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ002-003-011-013-014-021-251115-
ORLEANS-MONROE-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-ALLEGANY-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001-251115-
NIAGARA-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ020-251115-
CATTARAUGUS-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-251115-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.
   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ010-251115-
NORTHERN ERIE-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012-251115-
WYOMING-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.
   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ040-041-251115-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-LOZ042-062-SLZ022-024-251115-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LOZ043>045-063>065-251115-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
615 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ONTARIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF