Gale Warning 20, NWS Buffalo, NY

295 
WHUS71 KBUF 240251
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
951 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

LEZ040-041-241100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1000Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120124T1200Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
951 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A GALE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...WEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ062-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120124T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
951 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 35 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2300Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
951 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
951 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-241100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
951 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

519 
WHUS71 KBUF 240854
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

LOZ062-241000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120124T1200Z/
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 


$$

LEZ040-041-241500-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120124T1500Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 40 KNOTS.

* WAVES...10 TO 13 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-241700-
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-241700-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...8 TO 11 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-241700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2300Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-241700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
354 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...WEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...6 TO 9 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

716 
WHUS71 KBUF 241459
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
959 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

LEZ040-041-242300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120124T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1000Z/
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
959 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ020-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2300Z/
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
959 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ030-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120124T2300Z/
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
959 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS... SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ042-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1000Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN
BEACH-
959 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO 30 KNOTS BECOMING 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...5 TO 8 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-120125T1800Z/
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER-
959 AM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30 KNOTS BECOMING WEST 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

* WAVES...7 TO 10 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 18 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
350 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK TONIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LAKE EFFECT EFFECT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EAST OF LAKE ERIE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO QUIET
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER FOR WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE A MATURE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN END OF
MICHIGAN/S UPPER PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC
TONIGHT AS WHILE COLD AIR WRAPPING INTO THE LOW WILL SWEEP A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK MAKING STRONG WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
CREATING GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL STAY ACROSS AND TO THE WEST OF THE NIAGARA
FRONTIER...SUGGESTING THAT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WESTERNMOST COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. THE
JET LIFTS NORTH ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT SPARING THE NORTH
COUNTRY FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
MARKEDLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S
TO NEAR 30 ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE SOUTHERN TIER. THE
COLD AIR WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO REACH AREAS EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT RADAR OBS
INDICATE ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER OVER
WESTERN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FROM INCREASED
INSOLATION/DIABATIC HEATING DUE TO A DRY SLOT MOVING ACROSS THAT
REGION. HRRR MODEL CURRENTLY HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BRINGING IT INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER BY EARLY EVENING
AND QUICKLY FALLING APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE GENESEE
VALLEY AS INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WEAKENS. WILL CARRY
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE POPS FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

COLD AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NECESSITATES A
DISCUSSION OF LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. WHILE 850MB TEMPS
GET NOMINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT...AROUND -10C TO -12C
ACROSS LAKE ERIE WITH A FAVORABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AND LOW
SHEAR...THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE AND AN INVERSION LEVEL RUNNING AT 5KFT OR LOWER IS NOT
IMPRESSIVE. THE REGIONAL GEM MODEL KEEPS THE DEEPER MOISTURE A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
PROFILE FOR SNOW. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP POPS LIMITED TO
CHANCE EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND KEEP WEATHER LIMITED TO FLURRIES. EAST
OF LAKE ONTARIO...LONGER FETCH OFF OF THE LAKE AND SLIGHTLY COLDER
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY RAISE THE INVERSION JUST ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS JEFFERSON AND LEWIS
COUNTIES...THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1-3 INCHES AT BEST.

PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND LAKE INDUCED CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WILL MAKE
FOR A TYPICAL  DAY...FOR LATE JANUARY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING
THIS PERIOD AS THE BROAD POLAR VORTEX THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER
CANADA WILL RETROGRADE TO ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP A STRONG ZONAL JET
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUAL FEED OF PACIFIC MODIFIED AIR OVER THE LOWER 48. OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE DETAILS...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE A VERY SHORT LIVED POCKET OF -10C H85 AIR
WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT EAST OF LK ONTARIO...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. LAKE INDUCED CONVECTION EARLY ON SHOULD
DISINTEGRATE AS PACIFIC BASED AIR MOVES IN AND PUMPS H85'S TO -4C.
OTHERWISE...ANY NUISANCE SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. WILL BUMP MAX
TEMPS UP A BIT FROM CONTINUITY...AS H85'S ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE
TO AROUND ZERO/-2C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE
MID 30S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL
EXPERIENCE HIGHS CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL NORM IN THE UPPER 20S.

A WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY A JET STREAK ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE DEARTH OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SYNOPTIC LIFT...WILL ONLY CARRY SLGT CHC POPS.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DIG ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN ALREADY BULGING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS WILL PROMOTE FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY...WE WILL
EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE COULD EVEN BE A
COUPLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...OUR REGION WILL FIND ITSELF STRADDLED BY A PAIR
OF STORM SYSTEMS. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT
WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WHILE A SFC LOW GENERATED IN
THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS TO VIRGINIA. A PACIFIC BASED COLD FRONT STRETCHING
BETWEEN THE TWO WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT. SINCE FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD NOT BE VERY
STRONG...LIGHT LOW QPF SHOWERY PCPN COULD PROVE TO BE PROBLEMATIC AS
A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...IT
LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A SHOT OF SEASONABLY COLD AIR BY THE END OF
THIS PERIOD. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS IS LOOKING OUT TO DAY 7...BUT
THERE IS A SUGGESTION BY THE MEDIUM RANGE PACKAGES THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY AN ALREADY EXISTING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.

THE ORIGINS OF THIS SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVER
NORTHERN SIBERIA. AS THIS IMPRESSIVE FEATURE WEAKENS...ENERGY WILL
BE EJECTED ACROSS THE HIGH ARCTIC TO ALASKA WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO
DISLODGE A CLOSED LOW. THE RESULTING SHORTWAVE WILL THEN DROP 'DOWN
THE CHUTE' ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD...AND OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION OVER THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL DEEPEN AND ENERGIZE THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WITH COLDER
AIR SETTLING OVER OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD ALSO LIKELY SPAWN A COASTAL STORM...BUT
THAT WOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE FOR OUR REGION. NOW...LETS LOOK AT THE
DETAILS ON A MORE LOCAL LEVEL.

SFC BASED RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CLEAR OUT THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE ONLY REMAINING MENTION
OF PCPN BEING OVER THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. H85 TEMPS IN THE
VCNTY OF -4C WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY AS A DIGGING TROUGH WILL BE
FOUND OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
LOWERING HGTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP SOME COLDER AIR TO
SAG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH WINDS FRESHENING AS A RESULT OF
STRONGER WINDS BELOW H85.

IT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE SHARPENED H5 TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BECOME COLDER WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND
CONCENTRATED LAKE SNOWS SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES.

FINALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE CORE OF THE COOLEST AIR
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH H85 TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
MINUS TEENS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOWS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT JHW REMAIN AT VFR AS OF 18Z. KART VIS MAY DROP
INTO MVFR WITH LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH BUT REMAIN VFR
OTHERWISE. JHW UNDER IFR CIGS AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SFC THERE.

WIND SHEAR STILL REMAINS AN ISSUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MODEL TIME
SECTIONS SHOW LOW LEVEL JET OF 50+ KTS AT 1-2 KFT. LLWS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE EVEN WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS DUE TO STRENGTH OF LLJ. A
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN OH WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SECOND AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THEN VEERING WINDS TO SW WITH
COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING ALOFT. THIS WILL ERODE THE INVERSION AND
HIGHER WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS TO
40KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING POST FRONTAL. THE FRONT SHOULD
ALSO HELP TO IMPROVE JHW TO MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY SW
WINDS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER CONCERN THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED EARLY TUESDAY IS THE
CHANCE FOR ZDR 09Z-12Z. RECENT NAM MODEL INDICATED SATURATED LOW
LEVELS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS BUT DRY AIR IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
COLD YIELD SOME PATCHY ZDR.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE LAKES TONIGHT BRINGING FRESH
SOUTHWESTERLIES WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE. STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MAY BRING
GALES TO THE OPEN WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF CALMER WINDS AND
WAVES THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NYZ001-002-010-011-
     019-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ020.
         GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
         TUESDAY FOR LOZ062.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
         LOZ042>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

NYZ007-008-241045-
JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ004>006-241045-
WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ012>014-020-021-241045-
WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ019-085-241045-
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

NYZ001>003-010-011-241045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-241045-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
539 AM EST MON JAN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1215 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

NYZ019-231900-
CHAUTAUQUA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...JAMESTOWN
1215 PM EST MON JAN 23 2012

...STRONG WINDS...

STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 55
MPH HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

MOTORIST IN HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES OR VEHICLES PULLING TRAILERS
SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BE PREPARED FOR
THESE WINDS AS YOU TRAVEL ACROSS THE COUNTY.