Freeze Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

411 
WWUS71 KBUF 171611
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1211 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-180015-
/O.CON.KBUF.FZ.A.0004.120418T0600Z-120418T1300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1211 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THE SOUTHERN TIER 
  AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS. 

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO 30 ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LOW 30S
  ALONG LAKSHORES.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE VULNERABLE TO DAMAGE 
  FROM THE FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$

157 
WWUS71 KBUF 171653
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1253 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-180100-
/O.UPG.KBUF.FZ.A.0004.120418T0600Z-120418T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.FZ.W.0008.120418T0600Z-120418T1300Z/
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
1253 PM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* LOCATIONS...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
  TIER AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY 
  MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO 30 ACROSS INLAND AREAS. LOW 30S
  ALONG LAKE PLAINS AND LAKESHORES.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION WILL BE VULNERABLE TO DAMAGE FROM
  THE FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNED
AREA YOU SHOULD PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO...POTTED PLANTS
NORMALLY LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY
FROM THE COLD. STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RADIO AND TV
STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
349 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
ARRIVING ON THURSDAY AND LASTING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330AM...INITIAL COLD FRONT IS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AS
A BAND OF CLOUDS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NY. REINFORCING COLD SHOT
WHICH WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AIR IS STILL WEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD
WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THAT
BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S AND ARE WHAT WE WILL BE
SEEING ARRIVE BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS THIS MORNING ARE STILL QUITE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS BEING REPORTED 25 TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE EASTERN LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A RELAXING PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WINDS WILL FINALLY SLACKEN BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER TODAY THAN THE RECORD HIGHS OBSERVED ON MONDAY. COLD
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO COOL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0C
WHICH EVEN WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE HIGHS
AROUND 50 AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH MAINLY SKIES AND CALM WINDS. ANY WEAK IMPULSE IN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT COULD PRODUCE A FEW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS BUT SHOULD NOT BE
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE TEMPS WILL
FALL THROUGH THE 30S BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 WITH UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES WOULD STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WITH THE RETURN TO THESE
FREEZING TEMPS...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE DAY SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO UPGRADE TO A FREEZE WARNING
AFTER THE 12Z GUIDANCE ARRIVES. ANYONE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION
WILL WANT TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT PLANTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET DAY ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AS A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. LOOKS LIKE A COLD START TO THE DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING BY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
RECOVER BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...ALTHOUGH LOCAL LAKE
BREEZES WILL LIKELY KEEP IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREAS A BIT COOLER.

A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT REACHING
QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.
COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...BEFORE LEVELING OUT OR SLOWLY RISING. THE BULK OF
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAINED FOCUSED NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT PARALLELS THE
FLOW ALOFT...WARRANTING JUST A CONTINUATION OF LOW PROBABILITY OF
SHOWERS. AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A WAVE RIDE ALONG IT. 00Z MODELS ARE TRENDING FURTHER TO
THE NORTH WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE WAVE...THEREFORE SHIFTING THE
AXIS OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH...BUT
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF SOME PORTION OFF THE AREA WILL BE IMPACT BY
RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE FIRST RAIN CHANCES AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RUNS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A SHARP TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AND ASCENT DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION
AS A TAP OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM AND UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...THE PERIOD WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
MOISTURE PLUME MATURES AND PENETRATES THIS FAR NORTH.

PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND MANY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS STILL
5-6 DAYS OUT...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BUMP POPS UP TO
LOW LIKELY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD...THE WEEKEND MAY END UP
BEING A WASHOUT. WE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE TRAPPED IN LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS ADVECTING DOWN INTO THE LOWER
LAKES REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 40S...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE KEPT
PRECIP TYPE ALL RAIN GIVEN TEMPS GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH
THE COLUMN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS CHANCE IS TOO
SMALL RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE THIS FAR OUT.

A SPRAWLING CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO SIT OVER THE EAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LASTING INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. AN AREA OF
MVFR STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF NY SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
MOST SITES INTO THE MORNING HOURS. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL
BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT TO SKC
AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. INCREASING WESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ON BOTH LAKES THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
THESE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ040-
         041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LOZ044-
         045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
         FOR SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...SMITH/WOOD
MARINE...SMITH/WOOD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1157 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-180400-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
1157 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-180400-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
1157 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
ONTARIO AND SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF