Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Brownsville, TX

398 
WWUS54 KBRO 152248
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
548 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TXC261-152300-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-120515T2300Z/
KENEDY-
548 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN KENEDY COUNTY.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2709 9743 2694 9745 2695 9740 2702 9740
      2698 9737 2686 9736 2685 9739 2694 9740
      2693 9745 2682 9746 2684 9750 2683 9752
      2685 9755 2680 9750 2678 9754 2713 9771
      2722 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 333DEG 19KT 2699 9751

$$

64

139 
WWUS54 KBRO 152300
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TXC261-152310-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-120515T2300Z/
KENEDY-
600 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THE 
THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM.


LAT...LON 2709 9743 2694 9745 2695 9740 2702 9740
      2698 9737 2686 9736 2685 9739 2694 9740
      2693 9745 2682 9746 2684 9750 2683 9752
      2685 9755 2680 9750 2678 9754 2713 9771
      2722 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 333DEG 19KT 2694 9748

$$

64

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
136 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING
SHORT TERM FORECAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A MID LEVEL LOW OR
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
CONCENTRATED NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT EVEN NOW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING
IN THE DEL RIO AREA AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CRP CWA. STRATEGY
WAS TO EXTEND THE INHERITED GRIDS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW HOURS DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH MOVING SOUTHEAST ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. GIVEN THE LIMITED SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER ENERGY...AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DO NOT SEE LARGE THREAT OF SEVERE. MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH LINE OF CONVECTION WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STORMS HOWEVER. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION
MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS....NEXT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO FURTHER TWEAK THE FORECAST AS THINGS DEVELOP.

BEYOND TONIGHT...LOOKING FOR MID LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD IN ON
WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHWEST GULF. IT
SHOULD BE A TRANQUIL TRANSITION INTO THE LONG TERM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MAY EVEN SEE A TOUCH OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY AS
WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST AS WE ENTER WHAT APPEARS TO BE A QUIET OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST THAT HAS
GIVEN US THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER OF THE LAST TWO DAYS BROADER
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EVIDENT. THIS APPEARS TO
KEEP ENCROACHING UPPER TROUGHS WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE RESULT IS WARM WEATHER WITH LITTLE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE AIRMASS OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO
RECHARGE FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE/CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND
THAT SHOULD SEND IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON LIGHT EASTERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AT THE LATEST.

GFS/ECMWF QPF OUTPUTS SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT 500MB CHARTS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WE SHOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE BY THAT TIME SO EXPECT WE WILL STAY DRY. THE NET RESULT ON OUR
WEATHER WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE WARM...BUT NOT EXCEPTIONALLY
HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS AND SEASONABLE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTH WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE
BAY AND THE GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FAR
OFFSHORE SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING WHEN A LINE OF CONVECTION MOVED
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FROM NORTH TO NORTHEAST IN THE
SHORT TERM...WITH LOW SEAS AS WELL. WILL SEE CONTINUED ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
TO THE EAST.

.THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS.
OVERALL FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

54/68/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TXZ248>257-160945-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG AND HAVE THE POSSIBILITY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-160945-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
630 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER THE GULF
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE. EXPECT HIGHER SEAS
AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

TXZ251-152200-
KENEDY-
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH...WILL AFFECT
SARITA...UNTIL 500 PM CDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

64