Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Brownsville, TX

260 
WWUS54 KBRO 202131
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
431 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXC047-202141-
/O.CAN.KBRO.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-120420T2200Z/
BROOKS-
431 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNED AREA HAS LEFT BROOKS COUNTY. A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 2664 9775 2671 9799 2691 9798 2686 9767
      2686 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 288DEG 30KT 2680 9791

$$

TXC261-202200-
/O.CON.KBRO.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-120420T2200Z/
KENEDY-
431 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN KENEDY COUNTY...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JULIAN.
  NORIAS.
  RUDOLPH.
  HIGHWAY 77 NEAR NORIAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
  QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
  60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2664 9775 2671 9799 2691 9798 2686 9767
      2686 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 288DEG 30KT 2680 9791

$$

JGG

711 
WWUS54 KBRO 202159
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
459 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXC261-202209-
/O.EXP.KBRO.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-120420T2200Z/
KENEDY-
459 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN KENEDY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

THE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.


LAT...LON 2664 9775 2671 9799 2691 9798 2686 9767
      2686 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 288DEG 30KT 2673 9766

$$

JGG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
248 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC AND WFO CRP...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH 10
PM TONIGHT AS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE WATCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...STILL AWAITING
THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IMPENDING THUNDERSTORM
OUTBREAK ALONG THE FRONT. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED FOR UPDATE
ON VERTICAL PROFILE. INITIAL DATA SHOWS CAPPING STILL HOLDING
FIRM...BUT WILL BE FURTHER ERODED BY COOLER AIR MOVING IN WITH
COLD FRONT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL RUNS BRINGING LESS OF
A WIND THREAT BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WITH
GUSTIER WINDS EXPECTED FURTHER OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER...AND WITH THE DRIER AIR...WILL MAKE THINGS PRETTY
COMFORTABLE.

LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST MIGRATES EASTWARD THIS
WEEKEND. LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS UNDER HIGH WARM TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S AND MUCH COOLER IN THE FAR NORTH. A DRY AIR
MASS WITH THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP WESTERN TEXAS UNDER RH VALUES IN THE
20S ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZAPATA AND RIO GRANDE CITY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. RH VALUES INCREASE BACK TO THE
30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. DO NO EXPECT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME AS WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT STRONG ENOUGH
AND DO NOT LINE UP WITH AREAS OF VERY LOW HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THROUGH THE WEEK...DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. RIDGE STARTS TO
BREAK DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK.
GFS/CMC SEEM TO AGREED ON ONE UPPER LOW TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE CA
COAST WITH A SECOND FORMING OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST WITH
THE ECMWF HINTING ON TWO SEPARATE LOW AS WELL BUT NOT AS DEFINED.
GFS IS A LOT FASTER WITH THE CA LOW MOVING INLAND BY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THE CMC WHICH JUST KEEPS THIS
CLOSED LOW STATIONARY. UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE  PUSH INLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS NOT MUCH
IMPACT ON THE LOWER VALLEY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO
BE LATER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO RACE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET ON SATURDAY AS BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST GULF.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST KEEPING MOST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO LOWER QUICKLY. NEXT WEEK
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES. NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
WHICH WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THIS WILL DETERIORATE MARINE CONDITIONS INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  64  79  62  82 /  30   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          65  81  61  85 /  30   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            63  83  59  85 /  30   0   0   0
MCALLEN              64  85  58  90 /  30   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      65  87  60  91 /  30   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   66  77  67  78 /  30   0   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
     CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ150-155-170-175.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/68/60/58/VEGA/MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
240 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ248>257-211945-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
240 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH 1000 PM TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRONG
WINDS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY AT THE BEACHES OF SOUTH
PADRE ISLAND AND AT BOCA CHICA BEACH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-211945-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
240 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THROUGH 1000 PM TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA
MADRE BEGINNING AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE
ISLAND FROM 0 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE ALSO BEGINNING AT 7 PM
CDT THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
LAGUNA MADRE UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY...WHILE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS EAST OF PADRE ISLAND WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

CASTILLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
302 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ249-250-202100-
JIM HOGG-BROOKS-
302 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTY....

AT 301 PM...RADAR INDICATED DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST SOUTH
OF HEBBRONVILLE....TO NEAR RANDADO...MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF ONE HALF INCH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO AROUND 40 MPH.  THESE STORMS ARE ALSO INTENSIFYING AND SEVERE
WEATHER MAY DEVELOP SHORTLY.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/RGV....AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JGG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
342 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ250-202130-
BROOKS-
342 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTY...

AT 340 PM...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 25 MILES
NORTHWEST OF FALFURRIAS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. IF THIS STORM
MAINTAINS CURRENT SPEED IT WILL MOVE INTO FALFURRIAS BETWEEN AROUND
400 AND 415 PM. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM...AND HAIL OF AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND
GUSTY 50 MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/RGV...AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JGG/EB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
349 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ249-202130-
JIM HOGG-
349 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL JIM HOGG COUNTY...

AT 349 PM...RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHWEST OF AGUA NUEVA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM AS IT CROSSES
HIGHWAY 70.

THIS STORM IS ALSO INTENSIFYING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP.
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/RGV...AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JGG/EB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
401 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

TXZ250-202145-
BROOKS-
401 PM CDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BROOKS
COUNTY...

AT 400 PM...RADAR INDICATED A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST AT AROUND 35 MPH AND PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH.  ANOTHER STRONG STORM IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF
ENCINO...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER MAY DEVELOP. MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/RGV...AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES.

JGG