Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Birmingham, AL

719 
WWUS54 KBMX 022055
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
255 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC093-022130-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120302T2130Z/
MARION AL-
255 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CST...

AT 253 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BRINN...HACKLEBURG...TESSNER AND BEAR CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3431 8786 3432 8766 3431 8763 3421 8763
      3420 8764 3415 8786 3415 8799 3418 8803
      3422 8802 3432 8789
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 238DEG 33KT 3418 8795

$$

61

897 
WWUS54 KBMX 022106
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
306 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALC093-022130-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120302T2130Z/
MARION AL-
306 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MARION COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CST...

AT 302 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
HACKLEBURG...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  TESSNER AND BEAR CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3431 8766 3431 8763 3422 8763 3422 8764
      3419 8787 3421 8789 3430 8786 3432 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 246DEG 38KT 3423 8780

$$

61

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1124 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...

FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THINGS ARE OFF TO AN EARLY START THIS MORNING...IF NOT IN OUR AREA
THEN NOT TOO FAR AWAY JUST TO OUR NORTH. NOTHING IN THE MORNING DATA
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ANY LESS OF A CONCERN FOR SEVERE STORMS/TORNADOES
TODAY FROM THE DISCUSSIONS ISSUED LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING BY THIS OFFICE.

SPC RUC MESOSCALE GRAPHIC SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AT THIS HOUR (15Z) WAS BACK TO OUR WEST...NEAR THE MS
RIVER INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD FROM THERE. I THINK
THAT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE WHERE THE SO-CALLED MAIN EVENT FIRES UP
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL
PARALLEL BANDS OF CLOUDS ORIENTED IN A WSW TO ENE FROM AR/LA/MS INTO
WESTERN ALABAMA. MY CONCERN IS THAT ANY ONE (OR MORE) OF THESE
MESOSCALE BANDS COULD END UP BEING A DEVELOPMENT ZONE FOR
LINEARLY-ORIENTED SUPERCELLS.

SO WHAT WE ARE THINKING RIGHT NOW IS...FROM ROUGHLY THE CITIES OF
CARROLLTON AND JASPER NORTH AND WEST...THERE COULD BE AN EARLY
THREAT THAT SLOWLY RAMPS UP TO THE MAIN EVENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. THE MORE SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO...THE MORE LIKELY
THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER WAITS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WE'VE UPDATED THE TIMING GRAPHIC ON OUR WEB PAGE
TO INDICATE THIS EARLIER POSSIBLE START TO THINGS IN THE NORTHWEST.

WILL ALSO BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND TRYING
TO IDENTIFY ANY SMALLER SCALE LOW CENTERS ALONG THE FRONT THAT MAY
CAUSE A MESO- OR STORM-SCALE BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS. BULK
SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LARGE EASTWARD COMPONENT...AND AS
LONG AS THE STORM FORCING ORIENTATION STAYS IN A LARGELY SW TO NE
CONFIGURATION...THEN THE CROSSING ANGLE WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CEILINGS RISING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND
GUSTY TO NEAR 25 KTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A SQUALL LINE. AT THIS POINT...THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FALL BETWEEN 23Z AND 06Z ACROSS
THE NORTH...AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR MGM AND TOI.
TIMING WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE ACTUAL STORMS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP.

AFTER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE PUSHES THROUGH...STEADY LIGHT RAIN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH SOME
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM TODAY FOR ALL AREAS.

&&

61/88

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
624 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ALZ011>015-017>050-031230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
624 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA AHEAD OF AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ALL
SEVERE WEATHER MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND FLASH FLOODING. THE
HIGHEST THREAT AREA FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR...AHEAD OF AND ALONG A
STRONG COLD FRONT EXITING SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ALABAMA. ALL SEVERE
WEATHER MODES WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...AND FLASH FLOODING.

A DRY AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND POSSIBLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.