Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Watches in 2012
Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Gaylord, MI
NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm watch at Feb 27, 2012, 4:52 PM EST for 22 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Feb 29, 2012, 1:00 AM EST. It was in force for .
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 27, 2012, 4:52 PM EST (21:52 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 29, 2012, 1:00 AM EST
- Expired
- Feb 28, 2012, 3:11 PM EST
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Gaylord, MI
All 22 counties
Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 915 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 90 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
798 WWUS43 KAPX 272152 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 452 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-68 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXACT STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. MIZ016>019-021>024-028>030-280600- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY- ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY... CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING... MIO...HARRISVILLE 452 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE * TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ008-015-280600- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE 452 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HAZARD TYPE: HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATION: GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ020-025>027-031>036-041-042-280600- /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE... WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 452 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE * TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$
4 follow-up statements
147 WWUS43 KAPX 280334 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1034 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY... AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-68 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXACT STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME... WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION. MIZ016>019-021>024-028>030-281100- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY- ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY... CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING... MIO...HARRISVILLE 1034 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE * TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATER WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ008-015-281100- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE 1034 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HAZARD TYPE: HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATION: GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES...WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ020-025>027-031>036-041-042-281100- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE... WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 1034 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE * TIMING: SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. * POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ ADAM
507 WWUS43 KAPX 280818 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 318 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...MESSY WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M-68 CORRIDOR. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE ICE ACCUMULATIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MIZ016>019-021>024-028>030-281600- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY- ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY... CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING... MIO...HARRISVILLE 318 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ008-015-281600- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE 318 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HAZARD TYPE: HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATION: GREATER THAN 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ020-025>027-031>036-041-042-281600- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE... WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 318 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT IN FALLING SNOW. * ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ONLINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACEBOOK. && $$ LAWRENCE
979 WWUS43 KAPX 281536 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1036 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. MIZ008-015-282345- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0004.120229T1200Z-120301T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE 1036 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE WINTER STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * SNOW ACCUMULATION: BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. * TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 11 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. * FALLING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ON LINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ016>019-021>024-028>030-282345- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY- ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-ALCONA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY... CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING... MIO...HARRISVILLE 1036 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ON LINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACE BOOK. && $$ MIZ020-025>027-031>036-041-042-282345- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE... WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 1036 AM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...BECOMING MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO LOCALLY A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT IN FALLING SNOW. * ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. TO LEARN MORE...VISIT US ON LINE AT WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD OR FIND US ON FACE BOOK. && $$ SMITH
508 WWUS43 KAPX 282011 WSWAPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 311 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN... .LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE TIP OF THE MITT. MIZ016>018-290415- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ /O.EXB.KAPX.WS.W.0004.120229T0900Z-120301T1000Z/ EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY 311 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATION: 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * BLOWING SNOW...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH...PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON COASTS. * TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 5 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. * FALLING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ008-015-290415- /O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0004.120229T1200Z-120301T1000Z/ CHIPPEWA-MACKINAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SAULT STE. MARIE...ST. IGNACE 311 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW. * SNOW ACCUMULATION: BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. * BLOWING SNOW...WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH...PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW. * TIMING: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND 10 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS. * FALLING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES...FREQUENTLY LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647-8676 OR ON LINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ019-021>024-028>030-290415- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0008.120229T0600Z-120229T2000Z/ CHARLEVOIX-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA- ALCONA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEVOIX...MANCELONA...GAYLORD... ATLANTA...ALPENA...GRAYLING...MIO...HARRISVILLE 311 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX ON WEDNESDAY. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. * TIMING: SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF M-32. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 5 AM AND 1 PM WEDNESDAY. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ MIZ020-025>027-031>036-041-042-290415- /O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.120229T0600Z-120301T1000Z/ /O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0008.120229T0600Z-120229T2000Z/ LEELANAU-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD- MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-ARENAC- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTHPORT...FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY... KALKASKA...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE... WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH 311 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW...TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX. * SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION: 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. * TIMING: SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...CHANGING TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO JUST RAIN BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. IMPACTS... * SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. * VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT IN FALLING SNOW. * ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS A COMBINATION OF SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WE WELCOME YOUR SNOWFALL OR ICE REPORTS ANYTIME AT 1-800-647- 8676 OR ONLINE VIA FACEBOOK. && $$ ARNOTT
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Feb 27, 4:37 PM EST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 4:37 PM EST, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
437 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST MON FEB 27 2012
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES WITH DRY
WEATHER FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY
WEATHER...IN THE FORM OF SNOW...ICE...AND RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE NEXT STORMS SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY FOR SOME RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012
QUICK SHOT OF COOLER AIR OVERSPREADING THE NORTH WOODS THIS
AFTERNOON IN GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND REGIME BEHIND DEPARTING
SOUTHWEST QUEBEC LOW PRESSURE. JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY TO
KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH QUICK
ONSLAUGHT OF UPSTREAM DRY AIR ALREADY TAKING A TOLL ON LAKE
PROCESSES OVER CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT CENTER ON LINGERING LAKE EFFECT THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND CLOUD TRENDS.
TONIGHT...AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT IN
DECAYING LAKE PROCESSES OVERNIGHT...AND DESPITE MAINTENANCE OF
MARGINAL DELTA T/S...STILL EXPECT A QUICK DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOW
SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
NORTHWEST LOWER. MAY SEE THINGS LAST A LITTLE LONGER ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER...OWNING TO BETTER FETCH LENGTHS...BUT EVEN THERE...MOST
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN WELL UNDER AN INCH. CLOUD TRENDS A MORE FORMIDABLE
CHALLENGE...WITH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY AT LEAST SUGGESTING
ADDITIONAL STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEEP LAYER
DRYING WILL OFFSET THIS PLENTY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AREAS....WHERE
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED. INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN CLOUD THINGS OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS AWAY FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AS WINDS
SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING. IF CLEARING PERSISTS AND IS MORE
WIDESPREAD...TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A QUIET TIMEFRAME RELATIVELY
SPEAKING. SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOWS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY EXITING
EAST EARLY TUESDAY...WITH SAID STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING
THROUGH NEBRASKA...AND SETTLING INTO SRN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY
DAYBREAK WHERE IT WILL BE AT PEAK STRENGTH. NRN MICHIGAN WILL LIE
UNDERNEATH INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING TUESDAY WITH LOADS OF DRY
AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...BUT SOME INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE STORMS PARENT UPPER LOW AT THE IA/MN BORDER
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LEFT OVER DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TUESDAY EVENING TO CONTEND WITH...BUT FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THAT THINGS MOISTEN UP ENOUGH THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS PROGRESS...STRONG DEEP LAYER LIFT HIGHLIGHTED BY
INCREASING STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM AN OPEN GULF OF
MEXICO...IN CONCERT WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM 100+KT JET RESULTS
IN DEEP LAYER FORCING ARRIVING PRIMARILY FROM CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND OSCODA. THUS...SNOW
WILL START IN EARNEST OVERNIGHT WITH SNOWS MAXING OUT AROUND 2
INCHES IN THE SW CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012
MAIN FOCUS OVER THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
BE STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH
OCCLUDES AND THEN PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS NRN LOWER. AS IT
DOES...THERE ARE STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS SURROUNDING HOW MUCH SNOW
AND FREEZING PRECIP THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING. SEE BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAIN ACTION LIES WITHIN THESE
TIME PERIODS. SAID STORM SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED TROWAL...BEGINS
TO OCCLUDE WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION...DEFORMATION AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE LIFTING THROUGH THE CWA. CROSS SECTIONS REVEAL TROWAL
AND NEGATIVE THETA E LAPSE RATES/REDUCES EPV LIFTING TO NEAR THE
STRAITS. THIS PUTS THE AXIS OF BEST SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS NRN LOWER. IN
ADDITION ACROSS NRN LOWER...WARM NOSE ALOFT IS TRENDING FURTHER
NORTH...WITH A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-68. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF ITS LIFE DUE TO DRY SLOTTING POTENTIAL AS 700MB LOW
TRACKS OVER NRN LOWER. DUE TO THE CONTINUED FURTHER NORTH TRACK
TRENDS...THERE IS STILL NO SOLID WELL AGREED UPON SYSTEM
TRACK...CRITICAL TO HAMMERING OUT THE DETAILS OF SUCH A MESSY
STORM. THE WARMER SCENARIO COMBINED WITH EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL ALSO MORE THAN LIKELY ALLOW TEMPS ACROSS THE GTV BAY REGION
TO WARM UP ENOUGH TO WHERE THE SFC BASED WARM LAYER IS DEEP ENOUGH
FOR AN ALL RAIN IDEA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EASTERLY FLOW ALSO
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF NW LOWER DUE TO THE DOWNSLOPING. THROW IN ANOTHER
CAVEAT...CONVECTION BREAKING OUT TO OUR SOUTH AND PRIMARILY
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...SUGGESTS SOME ROBBING OF MOISTURE
FOR THE GREAT LAKES. WARM NOSE STILL LINGERS INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS NE LOWER BEFORE COLD ADVECTION AND A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
OCCURS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT. THESE SNOWS GUIDED BY GUIDED
BY DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH PASSING OF LOW PRESSURE
RIGHT OVERHEAD. TOTAL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE. ALL THIS SAID...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF
NRN LOWER...FOR PRIMARILY HEAVY SNOW IN EASTERN UPPER AND MODERATE
SNOW AMOUNTS FROM M-72 NORTH AND POTENTIAL ICE PROBLEMS. LEAST
SNOWS ACROSS THE SRN CWA...BUT ALSO WITH A PERIOD OF ICE
DIFFICULTIES. TRACK OF THE STORM IS VITAL TO WHAT OCCURS...AND
UNTIL THIS IS SOLIDLY AGREED UPON...HAVING THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
WATCH IS THE RIGHT CALL.
THURSDAY ONWARD...SOME ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY...BUT THE AIR MASS IS DRYING. SMALL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW FOR THURSDAY MORNING...DRY IN THE AFTERNOON AS SFC
RIDGING SETTLES IN. THIS HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE OVERALL SFC LOW
PRESSURE EVOLUTION. WARM ADVECTION DOES BLOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE EXTENT OF WHICH IS INDETERMINABLE
ATTM. GENERAL IDEA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL UPPER/WESTERN CHIP/MACK COUNTIES WITH A
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW ELSEWHERE STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. MAX SNOWFALL
LOOKING TO REMAIN IN THE LOW END ADVISORY ARENA (1-3"). COLD
ADVECTION BRINGS IN COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MOISTURE FOR A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.
THINGS START TO WARM BACK UP HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012
COMBO OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND DEPARTING ONTARIO
LOW PRESSURE AND JUST ENOUGH OVER-WATER INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE MAINLY MVFR OVERCAST...ALONG WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON VERY GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS AS WE HEAD THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
OVERHEAD...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY DEPARTING AND WINDS
QUICKLY SUBSIDING. LIGHT WINDS FOR TOMORROW MORNING UNDER A
THICKENING MID LEVEL OVERCAST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012
FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST LOWER
COASTLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL GALE GUSTS FOR PARTS
OF THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORES. ELSEWHERE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE STRONG LOW PRESSURE RAMPS UP
EASTERLY WINDS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. CAN
EASILY FORESEE GALES DEVELOPING FOR MOST NEARSHORES SURROUNDING
NRN MICHIGAN. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE THROUGH THE STRAITS...WHITEFISH
BAY AND FAR NRN LAKES MICHIGAN AND HURON. LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A SLACK GRADIENT...WHICH PERSISTS
INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-015>036-041-042.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-346-
349.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-
342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&
UPDATE...MB
SYNOPSIS...NS
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM....SD
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...SDHazardous weather outlook, Feb 27, 4:45 PM EST, 7 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 445 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 281200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 445 PM EST MON FEB 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SNOW MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...OR EVEN JUST RAIN IN SPOTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32 OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE... ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...AND THEIR IMPACTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. LAWRENCE/SMD
The office that day
Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 10:59 PM EST | Gale Warning | APX | 23 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Watches in Michigan, 2012Every winter storm watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.