Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Gaylord, MI

552 
WWUS34 KAPX 310411
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1211 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MIC113-310421-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120731T0500Z/
MISSAUKEE MI-
1211 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSAUKEE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4415 8461 4416 8478 4426 8484 4450 8459
      4437 8361 4410 8355 4404 8357 4405 8364
      4398 8368 4398 8383 4388 8391 4390 8393
      4392 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4382 8417
      4381 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 294DEG 42KT 4413 8435
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$

MIC011-051-069-129-143-310500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120731T0500Z/
ARENAC MI-IOSCO MI-GLADWIN MI-OGEMAW MI-ROSCOMMON MI-
1211 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROSCOMMON...
OGEMAW...GLADWIN...SOUTHWESTERN IOSCO AND ARENAC COUNTIES UNTIL 100
AM EDT...

AT 1207 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOCKADAY...OR 12 MILES NORTH
OF GLADWIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SELKIRK AND RIFLE RIVER STATE PARK AROUND 1220 AM EDT.
  ALGER AND SKIDWAY LAKE AROUND 1225 AM EDT.
  RHODES AROUND 1230 AM EDT.
  STERLING...MAPLE RIDGE AND HALE AROUND 1235 AM EDT.
  STANDISH...OMER...TWINING AND TURNER AROUND 1240 AM EDT.
  NATIONAL CITY AROUND 1245 AM EDT.
  AU GRES AROUND 1250 AM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4415 8461 4416 8478 4426 8484 4450 8459
      4437 8361 4410 8355 4404 8357 4405 8364
      4398 8368 4398 8383 4388 8391 4390 8393
      4392 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4382 8417
      4381 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 294DEG 42KT 4413 8435
WIND...HAIL 70MPH 0.75IN

$$

516 
WWUS34 KAPX 310431
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1231 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MIC143-310439-
/O.CAN.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120731T0500Z/
ROSCOMMON MI-
1231 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ROSCOMMON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS WHICH PROMPTED THE 
WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4388 8460 4401 8461 4414 8436 4442 8424
      4418 8357 4410 8355 4404 8357 4405 8364
      4398 8368 4398 8383 4388 8391 4390 8393
      4392 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4382 8417
      4381 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 294DEG 42KT 4422 8398 4399 8412
          4387 8437
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$

MIC011-051-069-129-310500-
/O.CON.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120731T0500Z/
ARENAC MI-IOSCO MI-GLADWIN MI-OGEMAW MI-
1231 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OGEMAW...
GLADWIN...SOUTHWESTERN IOSCO AND ARENAC COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM EDT...

AT 1225 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SKIDWAY LAKE TO 8 MILES NORTH OF RHODES TO BEAVERTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  STERLING...RHODES AND MAPLE RIDGE AROUND 1235 AM EDT.
  WHITTEMORE...TWINING...STANDISH AND OMER AROUND 1240 AM EDT.
  NATIONAL CITY AND TURNER AROUND 1245 AM EDT.
  AU GRES AROUND 1250 AM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
PRESCOTT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4388 8460 4401 8461 4414 8436 4442 8424
      4418 8357 4410 8355 4404 8357 4405 8364
      4398 8368 4398 8383 4388 8391 4390 8393
      4392 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4382 8417
      4381 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0429Z 294DEG 42KT 4422 8398 4399 8412
          4387 8437
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <.50IN

$$

049 
WWUS34 KAPX 310455
SVSAPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

MIC011-051-069-129-310504-
/O.EXP.KAPX.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120731T0500Z/
ARENAC MI-IOSCO MI-GLADWIN MI-OGEMAW MI-
1255 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN OGEMAW...GLADWIN...
SOUTHWESTERN IOSCO AND ARENAC COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE 
AREA. THESE STORMS AND LIGHTNING DISPLAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 3AM. 

LAT...LON 4388 8460 4401 8461 4414 8436 4442 8424
      4418 8357 4410 8355 4404 8357 4405 8364
      4398 8368 4398 8383 4388 8391 4390 8393
      4392 8405 4399 8406 4399 8416 4382 8417
      4381 8441
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 294DEG 42KT 4410 8361 4387 8375
          4375 8400
WIND...HAIL <50MPH <.50IN

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1008 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MIDWEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

BKN LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF OUR COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS LATE THIS EVENING. HEART OF THE
LINE EXTENDS FROM FAR NRN LAKE HURON THRU FAR NRN LWR MICHIGAN
INTO NW LWR MICHIGAN. A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO PERIODICALLY
INTENSIFY TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...FEEDING OFF LIMITED INSTABILITY
AND 850 MB THETA E AXES. ALSO...SOME VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR HAS
LEAD TO MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD THRU THE REST OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG
THE NARROW AXES OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED POPS
JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS LINE OF CONVECTION. OVERALL TIMING
IS ON TARGET...THUS HAVE MADE VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALIGNED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO ERN UPR MICHIGAN
THIS EVENING. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED MARGINALLY
SEVERE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN AND NE
WISCONSIN. IN COORDINATION WITH SPC...DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A WATCH FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY FOR NRN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THANKS TO
BETTER DYNAMICS IN PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH...AND
WHERE THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AXES RESIDE THIS EVENING. BOTH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY DECREASE WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESS THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FURTHER SVR WX. CERTAINLY EXPECT SCT/NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS FOR MUCH
OF OUR CWA...AND WILL MAKE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO WX/POPS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
THE COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
FROM KMQT SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL UPPER MI
INTO EASTERN UPPER MI. HOWEVER...THE SHOWERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPPER MICHIGAN ARE STRUGGLING TO GET ORGANIZED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE
REDUCED MID LVL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED OVER UPPER MI. HOWEVER...AS THE
FRONT MOVES EAST...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS
SOME STEEPER LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 6 C/KM ADVECT INTO EASTERN UPPER
THROUGH NRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NE WI. WITH A 40-50 KT MID LVL WIND
MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG
THE STORMS WILL BE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RUC
GUIDANCE SHOWS MID LVL LAPSE RATES DIMINISHING TO BELOW 6 C/KM
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOON AFTER SUNSET. IN ADDITION...THE BEST
UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER...IF A LINE OF STRONG STORMS CAN DEVELOP OVER UPPER
MICHIGAN...THERE IS A CHANCE THEY COULD MAKE IT ACROSS THE
LAKE...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL BE DIMINISHING AS THE
LINE OUTRUNS THE BEST INSTABILITY. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...WILL GO
WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.
AREAS TO THE SE OF WEST BRANCH WILL NOT SEE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 2AM.

THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE AFTN BUT SOME MOISTURE LINGERS SE OF APX WITH
850MB DWPTS STILL AROUND 18C IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. WILL HANG ONTO CHC POPS FOR THE SE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE TO OUR E...WITH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE
PUSHING IN...ENCOMPASSING AN AREA FROM CA THROUGH ID AND S
SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE SET
UP FROM SE MN THROUGH WI...UPPER MI...AND LAKE MI...NUDGING OUR WAY.

WHILE THE NEARING SFC HIGH DOES LOOK TO SCOUR OUT MUCH OF THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FCST SOUNDINGS AT KAPN DO
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS. WILL NOT GO WITH BR YET...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR NOW...BUT WILL
NEED  AND POSSIBLE BR GIVEN THE SLOWER EXIT OF PRECIPITATION.WITH
THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM N WI TO S LAKE MI BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL FEEL THE AFFECTS. THE WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. 850MB TEMPS ARE IN
THE 16-18C RANGE. DOWNSLOPE SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME OF THE
WARMEST TEMPS NEAR THE LS SHORELINE...AS WELL AS THE E HALF OF N
LOWER /ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NEARLY CALM THERE/.

LOOK FOR ZONAL FLOW TO PUSH IN ALOFT BY THURSDAY...THANKS TO THE
SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE NEARLY STEADY STATE
LOW SPINNING OVER NE HUDSON BAY AND FAR N QUEBEC. SPECIFIC TIMING OF
THE INCOMING TROUGH AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES REMAINS DIFFICULT.
FOR EXAMPLE...THE SFC LOW SKIMMING THE MN/ONTARIO BORDER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL EITHER REMAIN STEADY STATE...OR DEEPEN AS THE 30/06Z
GFS HAS IT GOING. THE 30/00Z CANADIAN RUN WILL BE THROWN OUT...AS IT
LOOKS TO BE TOO QUICK COMPARED BY 6HRS OR MORE FOR THE THURSDAY TIME
PERIOD. THE NAM...ALTHOUGH FAST...IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE
CANADIAN...BUT WILL ALSO BE USED SPARINGLY IN THIS FCST PACKAGE.
GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY CROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

EXPECT RIDGING TO SLIDE BACK IN ALOFT TEMPORARILY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A 500MB LOW PUSHING FROM NEAR AK TODAY
ACROSS CANADA OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
ECMWF/GFS/AND CANADIAN ARE ALL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW SET UP
OVER N MN AND SW ONTARIO AT 00Z SUNDAY. AS EXPECTED...SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES DO SHOW THEMSELVES SUNDAY...WITH THE
30/06Z GFS OPENING UP THE LOW AND PUSHING IT SLIGHTLY MORE
NE...WHILE THE 30/00Z ECMWF KEEP S THE BALL ROLLING EASTWARD ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR AND S ONTARIO SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

SCT/NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN
TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIDES THRU THE
REGION. PRECIP WILL REACH PLN/TVC/MBL BY 01Z...AND APN BY 03Z.
VSBYS WILL DIMINISH TO MVFR WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRECIP WILL END LATE TONIGHT...BUT SOME LOW CLOUDS/FOG/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL MIX OUT INTO SCT CU BY
MIDDAY...WITH SOLID VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY WX RETURNING TO NRN LWR
MICHIGAN FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT TO THE N/NW AND STRENGTHEN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

INCREASED WSW WINDS WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY
TURN MORE OUT OF THE NW AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OVERHEAD AND
SWINGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS AND WAVES TO BE
ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES IN. SCA CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE
REACHED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL LM BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SINK TO THE SE WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW...SET
UP FROM LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH W QUEBEC THURSDAY MORNING...SHOULD SINK
ACROSS N LH AND LM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER N LM GIVEN A EXTENDED PERIOD OF SSW WINDS THE
THE CLOSER POSITION TO THE NEARING LOW. SCA WILL BE LIKELY N...WITH
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC AT 20-30KTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
CROSS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHTER N-NE WINDS
FOLLOWING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...MR
SYNOPSIS...MRD
SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MRD/KF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
315 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
312215-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
315 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-75...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY REPORTS OF
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT ANY TIME.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX (ALL
LOWERCASE)

MRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
616 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

MIZ008-015-302345-
CHIPPEWA MI-MACKINAC MI-
616 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST
OF WHITEFISH POINT TO SENEY TO 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARDEN...AND
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  WHITEFISH POINT...
  PARADISE...
  LOWER TAHQUAMENON FALLS S...
  LOWER TAHQUAMENON FALLS STATE PARK...
  CURTIS...
  GOULD CITY...
  CORINNE...
  ENGADINE...
  HULBERT...
  NAUBINWAY...
  GILCHRIST...
  ECKERMAN...
  GARNET...
  REXTON...
  STRONGS...
  THREE LAKES...
  BAYVIEW CAMPGROUND...
  TROUT LAKE...
  EPOUFETTE...
  RACO...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1021 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     PELLSTON                45.56N 84.78W
07/30/2012  M62 MPH          EMMET              MI   ASOS

&&

MRUNYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1031 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W TRAVERSE CITY       44.75N 85.70W
07/30/2012                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN ROAD.

&&

MRUNYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1038 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1029 PM     TSTM WND GST     TRAVERSE CITY           44.75N 85.60W
07/30/2012  M53 MPH          GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

&&

MRUNYAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1133 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNW INDIAN RIVER      45.52N 84.68W
07/30/2012                   CHEBOYGAN          MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF LARGE TREES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN
            SECTION OF BURT LAKE. TREES DOWN ON HOUSES AND POWER OUT
            AROUND THE BURT LAKE AREA. MOST OF THE DAMAGE REPORTED
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MULLET BURT ROAD AND EAST BURT
            LAKE ROAD.

&&

SMD