Gale Warning 15, NWS Gaylord, MI

136 
WHUS73 KAPX 021539
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1039 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-022345-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.120303T0000Z-120303T1800Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1039 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-022345-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.120302T2100Z-120304T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1039 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

482 
WHUS73 KAPX 022140
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
440 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-030545-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.120303T0000Z-120303T1800Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
440 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-030545-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
440 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

138 
WHUS73 KAPX 030401
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1101 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-031215-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120303T1800Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1101 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-031215-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1101 PM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

397 
WHUS73 KAPX 030925
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
425 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

LMZ323-341-342-344>346-031730-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120303T1800Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
425 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345>349-031730-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
425 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

994 
WHUS73 KAPX 031544
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1044 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

LMZ323-342-344>346-032345-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120303T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.SC.Y.0026.120303T1544Z-120304T0400Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
1044 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING. THE
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LHZ345-346-349-031645-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
STRAITS OF MACKINAC WITHIN 5NM OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING
MACKINAC ISLAND-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI-
1044 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LMZ341-031645-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120303T1800Z/
SEUL CHOIX POINT TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE-
1044 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS CANCELLED THE GALE
WARNING. 

$$

LHZ347-348-032345-
/O.CON.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1044 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES EXPERIENCE AND
PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS
WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET
OF GALE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

478 
WHUS73 KAPX 032111
MWWAPX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
411 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

LHZ347-348-040515-
/O.CAN.KAPX.GL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120304T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KAPX.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-120304T1000Z/
5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT MI INCLUDING
BOIS BLANC ISLAND-
PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON PT MI INCLUDING THUNDER BAY
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
411 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. THE GALE
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$

LMZ323-342-344>346-040515-
/O.EXT.KAPX.SC.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-120304T1000Z/
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY SOUTH OF A LINE GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT TO
NORWOOD MI-
NORWOOD MI TO 5NM WEST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE INCLUDING LITTLE
TRAVERSE BAY-SLEEPING BEAR POINT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT MI-
POINT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR POINT MI-
MANISTEE TO POINT BETSIE MI-
411 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY. 

* PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILED 
  INFORMATION. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS 

INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GAYLORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...CONTINUES TO TREK TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
STORM IS EXPECTED TO START WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...THEN
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COLDER WEATHER IS
FORECAST TO RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...HARD-HITTING SNOWSTORM HEADING FOR NORTHERN MI TONIGHT...

1003MB LOW PRESSURE WAS IN EASTERN ND...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESE-WARD INTO LOWER MI. SOMEWHAT JUICIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WAS
FOUND SOUTH OF THE FRONT (SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR FREEZING) VS NORTH
(DEW POINTS MID/UPPER 20S). NUISANCE FLURRY/DRIZZLE ACTIVITY WAS
OCCURRING ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT IN NORTHERN LOWER MI.

MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY ORGANIZING IN OK EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU SATURDAY...CROSSING THE THUMB
TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS WILL
ACCELERATE. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WAY...WAY
MORE THAN JUST A NUISANCE.

MODELS...SURFACE LOW TRACK IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. BUT HOW FAR OFF
THE DEEP END (SO TO SPEAK) DO WE WANT TO GO? GEM/NAM/GFS HAVE THE
DEEPEST SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL SUITE... INTENSIFYING THE SURFACE LOW
BY ABOUT 20MB FROM 12Z TODAY TO 06Z TONIGHT AS IT CHARGES TOWARD
LAKE HURON. THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE A /LITTLE/ MORE SEDATE. HPC ARGUES
FOR THE MORE SEDATE SOLUTIONS...AS RAPID SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND
ABUNDANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL LIMIT THE
AVAILABILITY OF WARM/MOIST AIR INTO THE LOW CENTER. FORECAST WILL BE
BASED OFF OF SOMETHING THAT IS A TINY BIT WEAKER THAN THE 00Z NAM.
OVERALL...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE SURFACE LOW IS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND DEEPENS QUITE A BIT FASTER. BOTH THOSE TRENDS SUPPORT
MORE PRECIP THAN ENVISIONED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. THE LOW HAS ALSO
BEEN TUGGED A TINY BIT WEST...WHICH MAY ALLOW RAIN TO MIX IN A BIT
FURTHER WEST AS WELL.

TODAY...PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED BELOW 850MB ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKES REGION. THAT WON/T CHANGE MUCH
TODAY...THOUGH THE MOIST LAYER MAY BE SQUELCHED ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON
IN THE FAR SOUTH TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS SOMEWHAT. BY THEN THAT
WILL BE LARGELY IMMATERIAL...AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE EXTENSIVE
ACROSS THE REGION. SO A CLOUDY FORECAST WILL WORK. (GOOD THING
THAT/S SETTLED.) AS FAR AS THE SPOTTY -SHSN/-DZ IN NORTHERN
LOWER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE SHALLOW
MOIST LAYER APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN CULPRIT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HOLD THRU THE MORNING. BUT LAPSE RATES SHOULD BECOME CONSIDERABLY
LESS STEEP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING...AS WE START TO WARM
ADVECT IN THE 850-900MB LAYER AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER. THIS
WILL SHUT DOWN ONGOING LIGHT PRECIP...BY OR JUST AFTER 12Z/7AM.

THEN WE WAIT. A DRY LAYER FROM 800 TO 600MB WILL SEPARATE THE SOUPY
LOW LEVELS AND MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WE/LL
AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER OMEGA WELL ALOFT TO ALLOW US TO
DEVELOP VIRGA AND WIPE OUT THE DRY LAYER FROM THE TOP DOWN. THAT
WILL START AFTER 18Z...AND ACCELERATE AFTER 21Z. BY THEN...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING 1MB/HR AS IT MOVES FROM CENTRAL IL AT
18Z TO NEAR K-ZOO BY 00Z. SHARP DPVA FORCING WILL BE ARRIVING INTO
THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE INCOMING SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE INTENSIFIES AND TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. WE MIGHT SEE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP BREAK OUT BY 21Z NEAR MBL/GLADWIN/STANDISH...BUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP SHOULD ARRIVE IN THOSE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z. THIS PRECIP BURST WILL BE RAIN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...AS
WE INHERIT A RELATIVELY DEEP MELTING LAYER FROM 900MB ON DOWN.
HOWEVER...EVAP- AND MELTING-INDUCED COOLING WILL VERY RAPIDLY WIPE
OUT MOST OF THIS WARM LAYER. CAD/LAKE CITY SHOULD BE ALL SNOW BY
00Z...AND COULD PICK UP A VERY QUICK INCH BY 00Z/7PM. THE IMMEDIATE
LAKE MI COAST...AIDED BY AN INCREASING AND DOWNSLOPING ENE SURFACE
WIND...WILL MAINTAIN A WARM SURFACE LAYER MUCH LONGER...AND STAY
PRIMARILY RAIN THRU 00Z. AND WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING INTO THE
SE ZONES WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN NEAR AND E/SE OF W BRANCH. LESSER
PRECIP AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH...AND LESS INTENSE PRECIP (INITIALLY)
WILL KEEP BOTH RAIN AND SNOW A POSSIBILITY IN MOST AREAS.

MAX TEMPS PRETTY MILD CONSIDERING WHAT/S ON THE WAY...HIGHS FROM THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40F. BRISK TO WINDY E/NE WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE HURON COAST.

TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES A ROUGHLY 1MB/HR DEEPENING RATE...
REACHING THE TIP OF THE THUMB AT 06Z...AND NORTHERN GEORGIAN BAY AT
12Z. THE PRIMARY SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ACTUALLY RACE
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER BY MORNING...IMPLYING (AND
THE MODELS AGREE) THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BOTTOMED OUT BY THEN. THE
STORM TRACK AND POTENT DYNAMICS ENSURE A HEAVY PRECIP EVENT ACROSS
JUST ABOUT (BUT NOT QUITE) ALL OF NORTHERN MI. A COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY APPARENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE
COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH A 140KT 300MB JET LIFTING FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY THE MOST OBVIOUS PLAYER...BUT A RETREATING 110KT JET OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALSO PLAYING A ROLE. THIS HELPS PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE 300MB DIVERGENCE IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN LAKES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE 00Z-06Z WINDOW.

WHERE MIGHT IT RAIN? IN NE LOWER...MODELS INCLINED TO KEEP APN ALL
SNOW...AND ANY MIX SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THERE. MODELS ARE INCLINED TO
HANG ONTO A 1K FT DEEP MELTING LAYER IN THE FAR SE THRU THE EVENING.
WE/LL PUNCH THRU THAT WITH PRECIP OF SUITABLE INTENSITY...AND THAT
SHOULDN/T BE A PROBLEM THIS EVENING. WILL HANG ONTO A MIX THRU THE
EVENING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST FROM OSC SOUTH...BUT OTHERWISE
PLACES MORE THAN 5 MILES INLAND SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO...AND
STAY...SNOW. FOR THE LAKE MI COAST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACKING
DURING THE EVENING...AND SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTH BY 03Z. THAT
REMOVES THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT...AND CONSEQUENTIALLY AT FKS/MBL
PRECIP SHOULD TURN FROM ALL RAIN AT 00Z TO ALL SNOW AT 03Z/10PM.
OTHER THAN THAT...THIS SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT.

EVALUATING SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS IS A BIT OF A TRICK...BECAUSE THE MAX
OMEGA IS FOUND THRU AN ASTOUNDINGLY DEEP LAYER...FROM 750MB UP TO
300MB. THUS THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (AROUND -15C...FOUND AT ABOUT
550MB DURING THIS EVENT) IS VERY WHICH IN THE MAX OMEGA ZONE. BUT
THE MAX OMEGA ZONE ALSO EXTENDS ABOVE AND BELOW THE DENDRITE GROWTH
LAYER. RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING ARE GOING TO HURT
RATIOS A BIT REGARDLESS. PLAN ON SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS AT OR A BIT
ABOVE 10-1 IN THE EVENING...INCREASING INTO THE MID TEENS OVERNIGHT.

PER THE MODEL DISCUSSION ABOVE...THE NAM/GFS ARE NOT ONLY A BIT TOO
DEEP...THEY PROBABLY ALSO ARE TOO WET. NOT ONLY WOULD A WEAKER
SYSTEM BEGET LESSER PRECIP AMOUNTS...BUT UNDERDOING THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR WOULD ALSO HINDER THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WE HAVE AVAILABLE TO TAP. THIS IS PROBABLY A GOOD THING...
AS (JUST TO ILLUSTRATE) NAM BUFR DATA SPITS OUT JUST OVER 18 INCHES
OF SNOW AT GLR DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

INSTEAD...WILL FOLLOW THE (SOMEWHAT) DRIER SOLUTIONS OF THE REST OF
THE MODEL SUITE...OR SOMETHING JUST A TINY BIT HIGHER THAN HPC
GUIDANCE. THAT/S STILL GOING TO BE AN AWFUL LOT OF SNOW. I CAN/T
REMEMBER THE LAST TIME I/VE FORECAST A SOLID FOOT OF SNOW IN A
SINGLE 12 HOUR PERIOD...BUT WILL DO SO NOW...PAINTING ROUGHLY A FOOT
FROM LAKE CITY TO ROGERS CITY...AND WITH THE BULK OF NORTHERN LOWER
AT 8 OR HIGHER. ONLY NEAR SAGINAW BAY WILL AMOUNTS REALLY DROP OFF.
THAT DOES NOT PRECLUDE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WELL UP INTO THE
TEENS.

WHAT ABOUT EASTERN UPPER? THERE ARE A NUMBER OF HI-RES MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT ARE NOW HESITANT TO ADVANCE THE SNOW SHIELD NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER. WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL NE-ERLY WINDS IN THE
FORECAST (THANKS TO A DEEPER LOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO)...A LARGER
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IS GOING TO TRY TO HOLD PRECIP BACK...OR AT
LEAST SLOW IT SUBSTANTIALLY. THOUGH HPC GUIDANCE PAINTS 6-10 ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER...OUR LOCAL 4KM WRF HAS ZERO...NADA...ZILCH QPF AT THE
SAULT THRU 12Z. THIS IS A...DILEMMA. OUR WRF...BASED OFF OF A PRETTY
DEEP GFS BACKGROUND SOLUTION...IS PROBABLY OVERDONE IN HOLDING OFF
PRECIP. WILL FAVOR SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE 00Z NAM...WHICH HAS HEAVY
SNOW (MAINLY OVERNIGHT) SOUTH OF RUDYARD...BUT TAPERS OFF A BIT
NORTH OF THERE...TO AROUND 2 INCHES AT THE SAULT AND PARADISE.

PLENTY OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT AS WINDS GUST TO 30-35
MPH...INITIALLY FROM THE E/NE...EVENTUALLY BACKING TO THE W/NNW BY
MORNING. EXPECT NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. WINTER STORMS
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL COUNTIES FOR PARTS OF LATE TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE FAR SE ZONES ARE MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH
BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS TO PUSH THEM OVER.

HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR SAGINAW BAY IN THE
EVENING.

SATURDAY...SURFACE LOW STARTS TO SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES NE AWAY
FROM GEORGIAN BAY TOWARD CENTRAL QUEBEC. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
START THE MORNING STRETCHED ACROSS THE STRAITS AND ON TO NORTHERN
WI. THIS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD...REACHING CENTRAL LOWER MI BY
EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW (HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL BE CONTINUING IN
EASTERN UPPER MI THRU MID MORNING...WITH 2-5 INCHES OF ACCUMS THERE.
OTHERWISE...WE/RE TRANSITIONING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW...WITH A TON OF
MOISTURE LEFT OVER AND 850MB TEMPS GRADUALLY TUMBLING INTO AND THRU
THE LOWER MINUS TEENS. WITH DELTA T/S ONLY REACHING THE MID TEENS
DURING THE DAY...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ON THE SHALLOW SIDE AT 3-5K
FT...LAKE EFFECT SHOULDN/T BE EXCESSIVELY VIGOROUS. BUT THE COLDER
AIR WILL PRODUCE AN INCREASING FLUFF FACTOR (HIGHER SNOW-LIQUID
RATIOS). AND WE/LL PROBABLY MANAGE A FEW INCHES OF WIND-DRIVEN SNOW
IN MUCH OF NW LOWER MI. BY CONTRAST...IN EASTERN UPPER...AS SYNOPTIC
SUPPORT DEPARTS...NORTH 1000-850MB WILL NOT HELP LAKE EFFECT...AND
WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE TEENS DURING THE DAY IN EASTERN UPPER...AND THRU THE 20S IN
NORTHERN LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

SATURDAY NIGHT....WITH THE SFC LOW WELL INTO QUEBEC, WE BEGIN TO GET
INTO NORTH FLOW LES IN E UPPER AND NNW FLOW IN N LOWER. TEMPERATURES
AT 850 MB ARE AROUND -14C OR SO. SO HAVE TRIED TO TARGET THE BEST
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS AT THIS POINT OF IN THE SEASON, TRIED
NOT TO GO TOO WILD WITH THE AMOUNTS. IF THIS WERE A MONTH AGO, MAY
HAVE PUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN, BUT WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN, TRIED TO
BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. SO MODERATE AMOUNTS IN NW LOWER, MAINLY NEAR
TVC. LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS IN E UPPER AS THE N FLOW WILL PUT THE
BEST AMOUNTS JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AS THE NORTH FLOW
FROM THE FRONT SIDE OF THE HUDSON BAY HIGH PUSHES VERY DRY AIR AT
THE LOW LEVELS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TRIM
BACK THE AMOUNTS AS THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER, IN N
LOWER, THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE (RH>70%) IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, SO WILL CONTINUE THE
MODERATE AMOUNTS. IF THIS TAKES PLACE, WE COULD BE PUSHING WARNING
AMOUNTS FOR A 24 HOUR PERIOD. OVERNIGHT, THE DRY AIR PUSHES INTO N
LOWER AND THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT FROM THE N TO NNW FLOW TO NW AND
WNW FLOW AND SLIGHTLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SNOW BANDS INLAND SO THAT MORE AREA MAY RECEIVE SOME
LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE DRY AIR
BEGINS TO PUSH THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT
INTO THE REGION, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME NW FLOW THAT COULD LINGER
INTO THE DAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OF THE ECMWF AND WITH BOTH
MODELS AROUND -15C AND SOME MOISTURE, LES IS STILL A POSSIBILITY IN
THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, RIDGE AXIS IS THROUGH AND RETURN FLOW
IS BEGINNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING. SO THINGS SHOULD COME
TO AN END. TUESDAY, 850 MB TEMPERATURES SOAR, BY THE END OF THE DAY
TO +5C. MOISTURE IS AT 850 MB, BUT NOTHING IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER.
SO DRIZZLE AT BEST. GFS IS PROBABLY OVERDONE WITH THE QPF, SO WILL
KEEP THE DRY FORECAST. WEDNESDAY, CONTINUED WARM. GFS BRINGS FRONT
INTO THE REGION. IT WOULD BE RAIN WITH NOTHING BEHIND THE FRONT AS
IT DRIES OUT PRETTY QUICKLY. ECMWF DOESN'T BRING ANYTHING THROUGH
UNTIL OVERNIGHT, AND THEN IT IS RAIN. THURSDAY, ECMWF HAS BUILT A
STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE EAST HOLDING THE FRONT AS A DECENT SFC
LOW BUILDS AND RIDES UP THE FRONT INTO MICHIGAN. 0C 850 MB
TEMPERATURE REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION. PREVIOUS BLEND IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS, BUT NOT
SURE THAT THIS WILL BE THE CASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY...AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MAINTAIN LOW CIGS. BRIEF DIPS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY FLURRIES AND DRIZZLE
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

PRECIP WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...AS LOW
PRESSURE CHARGES IN FROM THE SW. THIS WILL BEGIN AS ALL RAIN AT
MBL...MIXING WITH AND TURNING TO SNOW IN THE EVENING. TVC WILL
START AS A MIX AND GO ALL SNOW...WITH APN/PLN ALL SNOW. IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SN/+SN TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

NOTE...MARINE SECTION AND HEADLINES WILL BE UPDATED AS TIME
PERMITS LATER THIS MORNING.

LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL. EASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED...WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER MARINE ZONES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ016>035.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ036-041-042.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR MIZ008-015.
LH...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LHZ347-
     348.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JL
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...AJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
439 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
021200-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
439 PM EST THU MAR 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE HURON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
HEAVY...WET SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY
MORNING.  SEE ONGOING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

JPB