Alert archive / Michigan / Flash Flood Warnings in 2012

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Gaylord, MI

May 3, 2012Manistee County, Missaukee County, Wexford County, Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this flash flood warning at May 3, 2012, 4:39 AM EDT for Manistee County, Missaukee County, Wexford County, Michigan. It was in force for 6 hr. 11 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2012, 4:39 AM EDT (08:39 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2012, 10:30 AM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 3, 7:00 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.42Wellston, MI
May 3, 7:00 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.515 Ssw Lake City, MI
May 3, 7:11 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 1Moorestown, MI1 HR TOTAL THRU 630 AM.
May 3, 7:11 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 1.411 N Lake City, MI24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.
May 3, 7:11 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 1.522 Sw Cadillac, MI3 HR TOTAL THRU 4 AM.
May 3, 7:11 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.121 N Wellston, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 5 AM.
May 3, 7:11 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.33Cadillac, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL ALSO REPORTED.
May 3, 7:11 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.516 E Cadillac, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM.
May 3, 7:46 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.322 Ssw Manistee, MI
May 3, 7:48 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.215 Ssw Brethren, MI12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.
May 3, 9:09 AM EDTHEAVY RAIN 2.772 Sw Mcbain, MI6 HR TOTAL THRU 9 AM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2012-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 86 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2012-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 30 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
86 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-138 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1790 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
30 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
95 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

625 
WGUS53 KAPX 030839
FFWAPX
MIC101-113-165-031430-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0001.120503T0839Z-120503T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
439 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GAYLORD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MANISTEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
  MISSAUKEE COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
  WEXFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 438 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
  WARNED AREA.  RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
  OCCURRED ACROSS MANISTEE AND SOUTHERN WEXFORD COUNTIES SINCE
  1 AM...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH
  MID MORNING.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO SPREADING INTO MISSAUKEE
  COUNTY. 

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...MANISTEE...ARCADIA...BOON...BRETHREN...
  BUCKLEY...COPEMISH...DUBLIN...EASTLAKE...FALMOUTH...HARRIETTA...
  HOXEYVILLE...JENNINGS...KALEVA...LUCAS...MANTON...MCBAIN...
  MEAUWATAKA...MESICK...MITCHELL STATE PARK...MODDERSVILLE...
  MOORESTOWN...MOREY...NORWALK...ONEKAMA...ORCHARD BEACH STATE
  PARK...PARKDALE...PIERPORT AND SHERMAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 8628 4452 8624 4451 8486 4416 8486
      4416 8596 4418 8639

$$


JPB
4 follow-up statements
445 
WGUS73 KAPX 030951
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
551 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIC101-113-165-031430-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120503T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEXFORD MI-MANISTEE MI-MISSAUKEE MI-
551 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MISSAUKEE...MANISTEE AND
WEXFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM EDT...

AT 545 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  
SPOTTERS AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS 
OCCURRED SINCE 2 AM...WITH MANY REPORTS OF STANDING WATER ON 
ROADWAYS.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE 
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...MANISTEE...ARCADIA...MANTON...MCBAIN... 
MITCHELL STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...LITTLE BEAR 
CREEK...BEAR CREEK...LITTLE BETSIE RIVER...MANTON CREEK...CLAM 
RIVER...BUTTERFIELD CREEK...SYERS CREEK...LITTLE MANISTEE RIVER...
CLAYBANK CREEK...PINE RIVER...STRONACH CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. DO NOT
ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. DO NOT
STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 8628 4452 8624 4451 8486 4416 8486
      4416 8596 4418 8639

$$


JPB
110 
WGUS73 KAPX 031109
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
709 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIC101-113-165-031430-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120503T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEXFORD MI-MANISTEE MI-MISSAUKEE MI-
709 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MISSAUKEE...MANISTEE AND
WEXFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM EDT...

AT 703 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE 
WARNED AREA. SPOTTERS AND RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED SINCE 2 AM...WITH MANY REPORTS OF STANDING 
WATER ON ROADWAYS. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BY 
1030 AM.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...MANISTEE...ARCADIA...MANTON...MCBAIN...
AND MITCHELL STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...LITTLE BEAR 
CREEK...BEAR CREEK...LITTLE BETSIE RIVER...MANTON CREEK...CLAM 
RIVER...BUTTERFIELD CREEK...SYERS CREEK...LITTLE MANISTEE 
RIVER...CLAYBANK CREEK...PINE RIVER...STRONACH CREEK. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 8628 4452 8624 4451 8486 4416 8486
      4416 8596 4418 8639

$$
038 
WGUS73 KAPX 031223
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
823 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIC101-113-165-031430-
/O.CON.KAPX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120503T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEXFORD MI-MANISTEE MI-MISSAUKEE MI-
823 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MISSAUKEE...MANISTEE AND
WEXFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM EDT...

AS OF 818 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE 
REPORTED WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS. WHILE THE HEAVIEST 
RAINS HAVE EXITED THE AREA...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...MANISTEE...ARCADIA...MANTON...MCBAIN...
AND MITCHELL STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...LITTLE BEAR 
CREEK...BEAR CREEK...LITTLE BETSIE RIVER...MANTON CREEK...CLAM 
RIVER...BUTTERFIELD CREEK...SYERS CREEK...LITTLE MANISTEE 
RIVER...CLAYBANK CREEK...PINE RIVER...STRONACH CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 8628 4452 8624 4451 8486 4416 8486
      4416 8596 4418 8639

$$
887 
WGUS73 KAPX 031430
FFSAPX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIC101-113-165-031444-
/O.EXP.KAPX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120503T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WEXFORD MI-MANISTEE MI-MISSAUKEE MI-
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT MISSAUKEE...MANISTEE
AND WEXFORD COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1030 AM EDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL AFFECT STREAMS AND RIVERS THROUGH THIS 
AFTERNOON AND RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS AND BE 
AWARE OF POSSIBLE FUTURE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. 

LAT...LON 4435 8628 4452 8624 4451 8486 4416 8486
      4416 8596 4418 8639

$$

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 4:04 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXMissaukee, Wexford29 min
May 3, 4:51 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXCrawford, Missaukee, Roscommon24 min
May 3, 6:52 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXArenac, Gladwin, Iosco, Ogemaw, Roscommon68 min
May 3, 7:18 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX117 min
May 3, 11:37 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX98 min
May 3, 11:47 AM EDTRiver Flood WatchAPXArenac11 hr
May 3, 12:30 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX71 min
May 3, 12:35 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPXBenzie, Grand Traverse, Leelanau, Manistee, Wexford55 min
May 3, 1:21 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX39 min
May 3, 3:18 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX102 min
May 3, 3:56 PM EDTTornado WarningAPXArenac, Gladwin49 min
May 3, 4:16 PM EDTTornado WarningAPXGladwin32 min
May 3, 4:56 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningAPX55 min
May 3, 5:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningAPXArenac40 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2012Every flash flood warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.