Storm Warning 13, NWS Juneau, AK

966 
FZAK52 PAJK 211223
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STORM FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE GULF WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE N THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN GULF SAT AND REACH THE NE
GULF NEAR YAKUTAT BY LATE SAT NIGHT. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NW GULF LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS 28 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE
MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF CROSS SOUND. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT LATE. SEAS 15 FT
SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT JAN 21 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. S
SWELL. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT LATE. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. S SWELL. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SW SWELL. SNOW.
.MON...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
606 AM AKST FRI JAN 20 2012

.SHORT TERM...AN AMAZING COMBINATION OF ARCTIC AIR REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ALL OF SE ALASKA WHILE A WARM FRONT GOES
ALOFT IS THE MORNING SITUATION. ONE LOOK AT THE ANNETTE SOUNDING
SHOWS WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND MULTIPLE FRONTAL INVERSIONS.
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE OBS THIS MORNING FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WHILE SNOW HAS
STARTED IN THE SOUTH. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT TODAY
IN THE SOUTH BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS ON
AVIATION AND MARINE. BIORKA RADAR SHOWS SUCCESSIVE SNOW BANDS
ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A NICE SPIRAL WRAP AROUND THE STORM CENTER AT 53N 146W. THE
SECONDARY WAVE WHICH WILL BECOME THE MAIN LOW CENTER IS NEAR 48N
135W AT 15Z. A BLEND OF MODELS WAS USED FOR THIS MORNINGS
FORECASTS FOCUSING ON TWO LOW CENTERS IN THE COMPLEX STORM.

.LONG TERM...COMPLICATED WWA SITUATION AND MODEL ISSUES BEYOND
SUN LED ME TO ONLY MAKE TWEAKS THRU 12Z SUN PERIOD. USED A BLEND
OF THE 00Z GFS AND EC FOR THAT TIME FRAME...WITH SOME 06Z NAM
BLENDED IN FOR THE WINDS. USED HPC TO ADD IN DAY 8 PERIOD.

 MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH SNOWFALL AND WINDS. DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL BE OVERRUN BY A FAIRLY WARM AND JUICY AIRMASS FROM THE
SOUTH...AS EVIDENCE BY WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S. AS
COMPLEX LOW LIFTS NEWD INTO THE SE GULF THEN ACROSS SE AK BY SAT
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO THE OVERALL LIFTING
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL QUITE A BIT. SNOW
RATIOS WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NRN AREAS IN THE DEEPER COLD AIRMASS. ONE CONCERN OVER THE FAR
SRN AREA IS THE WARMER AIR SHOULD GET IN AND LIKELY CAUSE SNOW TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SAT MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A LULL
IN PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS AS INITIAL OCCLUDED
FRONT GOES ALOFT OVER THEM...BUT THE WEAKENING LOW WILL SPREAD
MORE PRECIP ONSHORE SAT EVENING AS IT MOVES IN SO WS WARNINGS
WERE KEPT GOING THRU LATE SAT NIGHT FOR ZONES 21..24..26..AND 29.
HAVE ISSUED WS WATCHES FOR ZONES 20 AND 22 FOR EARLY SAT INTO
LATE SAT NIGHT. DID NOT ISSUE A WS WATCH FOR ZONE 25 AT WCM
REQUEST DUE TO THE ONGOING HIGH WIND EVENT. WILL PROBABLY NEED WS
WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT SOME POINT FOR ZONES 19 AND 25...AND
POSSIBLY ZONE 18. SNOWFALL IN SOME AREAS COULD EXCEED 2 FEET BY
LATE SAT NIGHT.

 LEFT HIGH WIND WARNINGS GOING UNTIL 14Z FOR ZONES 18...19...AND
25. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME AFTER THEN TO THE STRONG WIND
CATEGORY. KEPT STRONG WIND HEADLINE FOR ZONE 17 THRU 21Z SAT FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS. MAY NEED STRONG WIND HEADLINES OVER SOME OF THE
SRN ZONES ONCE THE WS WARNINGS END SAT MORNING. DID LEAVE IN THE
WIND CHILL ADVY FOR ZONE 18 NEAR WHITE PASS THRU SAT MORNING.

 THERE WILL LIKELY BE ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND
EVENTS FOR SUN INTO LATE WEEK DUE TO PRESENCE OF A POLAR VORTEX
OVER THE GULF AND SEVERAL SRN STREAM SYSTEMS COMING IN...BUT
MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND TRACK OF ANY INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE WHEN THEY WILL OCCUR IS LOW.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ024-026-029.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ023-027.
         HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018-019-025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ020-022.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AKZ020-022.
         WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR
     AKZ021.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ028.
         WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AKST SATURDAY FOR AKZ018.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-021-031-032-034-053.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ035.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ011>013-022-036-043-051-053.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ021-031>035-041-042-052.

&&

JC/RWT