Gale Warning 39, NWS Juneau, AK

274 
FZAK52 PAJK 060428 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
730 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-061400-
400 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL RAPIDLY MOVE
EAST TO CANADA THURSDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF LATE THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WITH GALES ALONG ITS
WEATHER FRONT.   

$$

PKZ041-061400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
730 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 40 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 14 FT LATE. W SWELL IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-061400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
730 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...S GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-061400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
730 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT LATE. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-061400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
730 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT
BUILDING TO 22 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-061400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
730 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012 

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SAT...E STORM FORCE WIND TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 

$$

570 
FZAK52 PAJK 061247
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-070100-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF SATURDAY WITH GALES
EXPECTED.   

$$

PKZ041-070100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 16 FT LATE.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-070100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT LATE. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...S GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-070100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE LATE. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...SE GALE INCREASING TO 40 KT EARLY. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-070100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 15 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE INCREASING TO 40 KT EARLY. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-070100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST FRI JAN 6 2012 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT
SUBSIDING TO 13 FT LATE. 
.SAT...SE GALE INCREASING TO 45 KT EARLY. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
324 PM AKST THU JAN 5 2012

.SHORT TERM...SHORT LIVED BREAK IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING WILL
PERMIT SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE.  THE
BREAK IN CLOUD COVER WILL BE ENDED BY A LARGE-SCALE GALE FORCE
SYSTEM THAT WILL APPROACH THE OUTER COAST TONIGHT AND GENERATE A
HEAVY SNOW EVENT FOR THE YAKUTAT ZONE. PLEASE NOTE THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE  GALE-FORCE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ABOUT 12Z SAT.

 HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE IN
THE SHORT RANGE PACKAGE IS AVERAGE. THE EUROPEAN MODEL RUN AT
05.12 WAS THE EASIEST TO RECONCILE WITH INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE
 LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE PARAGRAPH IMMEDIATELY BELOW.

 985 MB LOW 600 NM S OF PAMD IS TRACKING NE WITH ASSOCD OCFNT ABT
600 NM SW OF THE PNHDL. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN ASSOCD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT THAT IS MOVING FROM THE ERN GLFALSK TO THE PNHDL AND
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE E BYD THE COAST MTN RANGE BY 12Z. THE OCFNT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE OUTER COAST ABOUT 21Z SAT. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LIFE CYCLE OF THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE THE LONG
RANGE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LONGER RANGE THRU
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIRLY SMALL DIFFERENCES AT MOST. A
WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SE AK FRI EVENING.
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE N INTO THE SW GULF EARLY
SAT...AND SEND A STRONG BUT WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE SAT MORNING...THEN THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH THRU
SE AK SAT NIGHT. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF
LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND THRU SE AK LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE ERN PAC AND NW CANADA
MON THEN DRIFT E OF THE AREA TUE. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FOR LATE TUE INTO WED.
ENDED UP USING THE 12Z ECMWF FOR 00Z SAT TO 00Z MON...THEN WENT
WITH LATEST HPC FROM 12Z MON ON OUT.

SHOULD HAVE SOME PRECIP STILL GOING ON OVER THE AREA FRI
EVENING...THEN IT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ANY BREAK WILL BE
FAIRLY SHORT THOUGH AS PRECIP WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BE
MOVING ONSHORE EARLY SAT MORNING...AND REACH REMAINDER OF THE
PANHANDLE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST. SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
RAIN EVENT BUT SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX IN OVER THE NRN AND ERN
AREAS AT THE ONSET. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE FAR NRN AREA NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...AND HYDER. WILL PROBABLY NEED WIND HEADLINES WITH THIS
SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SAT...MAINLY OF THE STRONG WIND
VARIETY.

AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD SO EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING SAT NIGHT AND PRECIP TO BE MOSTLY IF
NOT ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SUN INTO SUN EVENING...AND BRING SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR BEHIND
IT. BY LATE SUN NIGHT MOST PLACES SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING
AND MOST PRECIP SHOULD HAVE CHANGED TO SNOW SHOWERS BY THEN.
PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS MON NIGHT TO BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA.

THEN SHOULD SEE MORE PRECIP MOVE IN LATE TUE INTO WED AHEAD OF
ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT
SHOULD SEE MORE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALBEIT LIKELY BECOMING
MIXED WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL AND SRN
AREAS...AND POSSIBLY BECOMING MIXED PRECIP IN THE CENTRAL AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST BEGINNING OF PATTERN CHANGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH INDICATIONS OF FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE ERN BERING SEA AND WRN AK AND TROF DIGGING SEWD
ALONG THE WRN COAST OF NOAM...SETTING UP POTENTIAL FOR MUCH COLDER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL OF LA NINA
WINTERS THAN WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ041>043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053.

&&

JBT/RWT