Gale Warning 151, NWS Juneau, AK

315 
FZAK52 PAJK 162051 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171500-
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE AK WILL MOVE E INTO B.C.
THU NIGHT AS A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
DRIFTS E AND BECOMES A TROUGH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
PANHANDLE. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE NEAR THE
FAR SE GULF ON FRI. 

$$

PKZ041-171500-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO
12 FT LATE. W SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-171500-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. W
SWELL. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-171500-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. W SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT. SW
SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-171500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-171500-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1150 AM AKST THU FEB 16 2012

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 



$$

428 
FZAK52 PAJK 170026
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-171400-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SE AK WILL MOVE E INTO B.C.
THU NIGHT AS A WEAKENING WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
DRIFTS E. IT BECOMES A TROUGH AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
PANHANDLE. A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE NEAR THE
FAR SE GULF ON FRI. 

$$

PKZ041-171400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. W
SWELL. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. W SWELL. RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-171400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT LATE. W
SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-171400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 14 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN IN THE EVENING. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND BECOMING 20 KT LATE. SEAS 12 FT. SW
SWELL. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. W SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-171400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-171400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST THU FEB 16 2012 

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SW SWELL.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SW SWELL. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
252 PM AKST WED FEB 15 2012

.SHORT TERM...EARLY AFTERNOON INFRA RED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS AN OCCLUDED FRONT ENTERING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH ITS
TRIPLE POINT FAR SOUTH...HEADING TOWARD PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MAIN JET STREAM SPLITS OVER EASTERN
GULF...PUSHING A DEFORMATION ZONE TOWARD NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN PART OF DYNAMICS EAST ACROSS HAIDA GWAII TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING OVER YAKUTAT AREA WITH UP
TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR YAKUTAT ZONE WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW FLURRIES STARTED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PANHANDLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELFIN
COVE TO JUNEAU AIRPORT REMAINED SPRINKLES.

 MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK OF THE INCOMING
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WAS INITIALIZED BEST
AND HAS BEEN SHOWING A BETTER CONSISTENCY THAN THE NCEP MODELS.
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE ECMWF HANDLES THE UPPER DYNAMICS
SPLITTING OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE
REFLECTIONS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. REFRESHED THE INHERITED
FORECAST PACKAGE WITH THE 12Z RUN ECMWF FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

 CATEGORICAL POPS ARE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR TONIGHT
WITH THE INCOMING FRONT. SNOW WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN ONE THIRD
OF THE PANHANDLE AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN
WITH RAIN. SNOW LEVEL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH TAPERING OFF PRECIPITATION
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS NEAR
HYDER AREA...KEPT THE PRECIPITATION AS SNOW WITH ACCUMULATION UP
TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT. EXCEPT THE YAKUTAT AREA...WHERE ADVISORY
LEVEL SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...NORTHERN ONE
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE WILL SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT.

 AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PANHANDLE...SMALL CRAFT
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND OCEAN ENTRANCES OF THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS...SMALL
CRAFT WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

 &&

 .LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. UKMET IS NO LONGER A WILD OUTLIER AND NAM
HAS SOMEWHAT ABANDON THE STRONG LOW LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL GULF
FOR LATE THIS WEEK THAT IT WAS SHOWING YESTERDAY. THROUGH IT IS
STILL THE SCENARIO WITH THE SECONDARY LOW THE FARTHEST EAST EARLY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM
YESTERDAY WITH SW TO W FLOW STILL DOMINATE OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BROAD UPPER TROUGH STILL ENTRENCHED IN
THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND BERING SEA. THE INITIAL EMBEDDED UPPER
LOW OVER THE BERING WILL DISSIPATE SAT ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY
ANOTHER EASTWARD MOVING LOW EARLY SAT. SOME DEBATE ON THE
STRUCTURE OF THE REPLACEMENT LOW AS GFS HAS A MORE COMPLEX
STRUCTURE WHILE THE EC IS GOING FOR A MORE SIMPLISTIC AND FARTHER
WEST APPROACH.

 OVERALL WEATHER FOR THE PANHANDLE WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WITH
AT LEAST FOUR WEAK TO MODERATE SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. FIRST IS A WEAK FRONT FOR THURS NIGHT. NOT
MUCH SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE EXCEPT FOR A WEAKENING UPPER
TROUGH TO HELP IT ALONG. LATE FRI AFTERNOON INTO SAT HAS A LOW
TRACKING WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF IT AND THE
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT MAY OPEN UP SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
FOR SAT. LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS WET AS A FEW MORE SYSTEM COME IN OFF THE GULF.

 FOR FORECAST UPDATES DECIDED TO GO WITH THE EC AS IT LOOKED TO
HAVE THE BEST CONSISTENCY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. GFS WAS A CLOSE
SECOND. FARTHER OUT USED HPC DATA FOR IT USE OF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO
EVEN OUT THE DIFFERENCES THAT CROP UP IN THE LONG RANGE. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MID RANGE AND ABOUT
AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EXTENDED.

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ017.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>036-041-053.

&&

AHN/EAL