Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

219 
WWAK61 PAFG 220626
RFWNSB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1026 PM AKDT THU JUN 21 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND...

AKZ205-206-220730-
/X.CAN.PAFG.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-120622T0800Z/
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
1026 PM AKDT THU JUN 21 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 



$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
139 AM AKDT THU JUN 21 2012

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE CNTRL YT SWWD TO COLD BAY THEN SWD
INTO THE PACIFIC. HIGH CENTER OVER THE SRN YT BLDG TO 573 DAM NEAR
FT SIMPSON BY FRI AFTN...WITH RDG EXTENDING TO KODIAK IS AND SWWD.
COLD AND DEEP LOW ALOFT NEAR 80N/172W WILL MOVE NEWD TO NEAR 85N/105W
BY FRI AFTERNOON. SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER AREAS N AND W OF FAIRBANKS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NEWD AND AS TWO
FOLLOWING SHORT WAVES MOVE EWD OUT OF THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC ACROSS
THE BEAUFORT SEA.

ISOLATED AFTN/EVE TSTMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SAT OVER
AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226 AS INSTABILITY PERSISTS OVER
THOSE AREAS. THERE WERE A FEW STRIKES OVER AKZ221 WED AFTN...
CURRENT GFS/NAM PUSHING THE INSTABILITY A BIT FARTHER TO
THE E TODAY.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN 500 MB
PROGS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...THE UPPER RIDGE GETS PUSHED
FAR E INTO CANADA WHILE A MEAN UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PROGRESSES
EWD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PREDOMINANTLY
SE FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN AK WITH HEIGHTS AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL.
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
SUN BUT NUDGE A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL MON THROUGH WED.
CPC FORECAST ENSEMBLE MEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FOR
LESS THAN AROUND 3 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NRN AK FOR THE PERIOD
JUN 27-JUL 1. THIS MEAN FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR IMPORTING MOISTURE INTO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...INCREASING
THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN THE INTERIOR. LOWEST
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO BE 15-25 PERCENT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE ERN INTERIOR. SW WINDS TO 15 MPH EXPECTED
THIS AFTN AND EVE OVER PARTS OF AKZ219-AKZ220...OTHERWISE
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 MPH OR LESS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FREEZING LEVELS OVER THE ERN AK RANGE 9000-9500 FT TODAY
RISING TO 10000-10500 FT BY SAT AFTN. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
MELT WILL CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS FEEDING INTO THE
TANANA RIVER...WITH AN EVENTUAL SLOW RISE IN THE MAIN STEM OF
THE TANANA RIVER. CURRENT FORECAST STAGE FOR THE TANANA RIVER
AT FAIRBANKS IS ABOUT 21 FT BY MIDNIGHT SUN MORNING.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.
&&

RF JUN 12